Crime Trends and Correlates 09 14 2011 All of this data comes from the 3 sources of crime data Crime and Victimization Trends Significant drop in crime in 1990s Overall crime rate peaked in 70s and 80s Crime estimates differ depending on Source of information Population shifts Changing types of crime Changes in recording practices Baby Boomers of 1950s Eras of Crime in the USA 1960 1980 steady increase in crime 1980s high relatively stable o Could be associated with crack cocaine Caused increase in crime from 1960s to 1980s Because baby boomers were reaching peak crime ages 30 yrs 1990s present large and slow decline o Crime dropped across all demographic groups o Possible factors Receding crack cocaine epidemic Mass incarceration Improved economy Demographics Changes in policing UCR vs NCVS Why the difference o Measure different crimes o Increased reporting of victimization o Increased police recording and participation Victimization Around the World International Crime Victims Survey ICVS Where does the USA rank compared to other Western democracies Correlation of Crime Correlation things vary together in a systematic way Causation a cause produces a certain effect Correlation does not mean causation Ecological Regional differences o South is most dangerous region o Northeast is least dangerous Urban rural Place Individual Gender o Hot spots of crime o Crime is spatially concentrated o Crime happens more often in cities than in rural areas o Best predictor of offending o Most offenders are male o Gender gap varies by crime type shrinking over time Murder slaughter mostly by men Property crime somewhat equal Prostitution mostly by women o Women s crime rate is increasing compared to men s o Trends in Female Crime Women s liberation movement Women became more successful in workplace Were seen as equals to men Sisters in Crime 1975 women are equal to men in workplace women s crime will start to resemble that of men o Proposed explanations for gender gap Trait differences Socialization differences Cognitive difference Social political changes Changes in police practices Socioeconomic status SES o Inverse relationship as an ecological correlate o Some disagreement as an individual correlate o More wealthy less crime o Crime most likely in very rich and very poor o Police may be more likely to arrest someone who is poor than someone who is living in a rich neighborhood o Rich more likely to get probation rather than immediate arrest o Consider crime types Instrumental profit workplace white collar Expressive violent anger at the world o Common measures of SES Employment status Income Education o SES and Incarceration Inverse relationship Typical prisoner Less than HS education Below poverty line Unemployed or blue collar worker Race and ethnicity o Controversial topic o Racial minorities overrepresented in official records a lot depends on police discretion discrimination o 1 9 black males ages 20 34 are in prison o Possible explanations Racism and discrimination is the criminal justice system biased discriminative against minorities Racial Threat Theory the more minorities in an area the more threatened whites will feel use the criminal justice system to exert control Social and economic disadvantage Poor areas have very high crime rates Family dissolution Actual offending differences Age Criminal Justice System Practices o Ethnicity and Crime Little research on this correlate Latino offenders often dropped from sample combined with other racial groups o Steffensmeier and Ulmer 2005 o What do the authors mean when they refer to a claim of invariance in the age crime relationship Physical ability is greatest when younger Under the age of 21 trying to get alcohol o What were some of the explanations they offered about why crime peaks in adolescence Punishment isn t as bad when you re under 18 o What changes do they suggest may be responsible for the decline in offending Maturity Meet new role models in the workplace etc page 127 in supplemental reading o Age Crime Curve Crime peaks before the age of 20 late adolescence Chronic Offenders Few offenders commit most offenses Philadelphia Birth Cohort Study 6 committed more than half of all offenses Key characteristic early onset Major debate in criminology o Are these offenders different How Criminal justice policy o Get tough approach three strikes MM etc o 3 strikes 3rd offense is life in prison o Mandatory Minimum minimum amount of time a person must stay in prison depending on crime committed Victimization 09 14 2011 The Costs of Victimization Crime affects victims and society Two types of costs o Tangible o Intangible Difficult to assess costs Tangible Costs Direct costs to the victim o Medical care property loss lost wages Costs to society o Criminal justice system prevention measures o Tax payers share these costs Intangible costs Long term stress o Post traumatic stress disorder Fear of repeat victimization o How much would you pay to not be afraid anymore o Live the rest of your life in fear Reduced quality of life The Nature of Victimization Victim Characteristics Demographics o Age Higher rates among younger people Declining rates among the younger ages during 90s Blacks more likely to be victimized than white Racial gap is narrowing o Race o Gender Higher rates among males Gender gap is narrowing o Martial Status Rates lower among married and widowed Similar among divorced separated never married o SES Higher social class less likely to be victimized Inverse relationship Victim offender Relationship o Victims often know offenders o Strangers were responsible for 42 of violent crimes in 2009 o Intimate partner family member friend etc usually commits the victimization Repeat Victimization Three characteristics that increase potential o Target vulnerability Easy to get away with Ex abusive relationship wife will not report husband o Target gratifiability Victim has something that offender wants Ex abuser wants control over who they are abusing Wife talks to neighbor and husband assumes they are o Target antagonism having an affair 1 victims often look like offenders in terms of demographics 2 victims often personally know their offenders Theories of Victimization 1 Victim Precipitation Theory o Victims initiate their own victimization Ex women who dress provocatively get raped use of derogatory names causes someone to get angry o Two types of precipitation Active Passive Some personal or social characteristic causes another to
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