How do we decide what makes a good theory?AccuracyTestabilitySimplicityBroad in scopePolicy-relevantSolve puzzles; generating interest and researchRelevant to current sentimentKeep these in the back of your mind when going over theories“Metaphysical” era of Criminology – 18th centuryScholars, philosophers thinking and writing about crime and punishmentKey Classical TheoristsCesare BeccariaPunishment should be swift, certain, severControl crime by making fear of punishment greater than any benefitsJeremy BenthamPeople are hedonistic – act to maximize pleasureUtilitarian PunishmentPunishment: Deter THAT person and everyone elseEmergence of NeoclassicismClassicism was embraced for almost 100 years.Influential in US Bill of RightsBeginning in 1870’s, positivism emergedInterest in the actor not the actionsMid-20th century, classicism reappearsEarly Deterrence TheoryEarly Deterrence TheoryAssumption:Humans are rational, self-interested creaturesGuided by utilityPeople make choice to commit crimeTried to prove that death penalty is the worst punishment and states that had it would have the lowest crime ratesCouldn’t be provenRevitalization of DeterrenceDeterrence theory predicts:Swift, certain, and severe punishments will result in lower crimeEarly deterrence research (1968-1975)Macro (state-level) studies; official dataCertainty (somewhat) mattersSeverity has weak or no effectSwiftness not measuredCriticisms of Early Deterrence WorkOnly 1 of 3 components shown any supportMeasuring at aggregate levelNon-deterrence mechanisms not measuredSurvey in California, 1968Asked people questions about crime and deterrenceMost people have NO IDEA about:State’s crime rateCertainty of punishmentSeverity of punishments for crimesDeterrence and PerceptionGeerken and Gove (1975)Deterrence theory formally restated as a perceptual theoryIndividual-levelAs perceived certainty of getting caught increases…offending decreasesSupportedPeople who perceive high certainty of getting caught are less likely to commit crimesMeasuring Perceptions1980s: Temporal Ordering IssuesPerceptions may change!1st interview- measure perceptions of certainty, time lapse2nd interview – ask about crime in time lapseResearch shows that perceptions of certainty matter much less when measured this wayDeterrence and PunishmentPrior to 1970’s: Rehabilitation ModelTreating, restoring inmates1970’s: “Get Tough” punishment movement:Just DesertsRetribution – eye for an eyeIncapacitation – prevent crime by locking them upDeterrence and PolicyMandatory sentences“Three Strikes”Boot campsPolice PoliciesPreventive patrolPatrolling around in their cars to increase perception of civiliansScared StraightMovie – Idea: Expose ‘at risk’ juveniles to rough environmentWhen tested, these programs actually found to have harmful effect!Arrest and Domestic ViolenceSherman and Berk (1983)DV calls to police to randomly assigned: arrest/notLogic: Those arrested should have lower rate of DV in the futureWhat about swiftness?Celerity: Swiftness of punishmentLeast studied aspect of deterrence theoryProblems studying celerity:Deciding when punishment beginsSummary:Deterrence rooted in early classicismFocus on formal punishment (arrest, prison)Certain, swift, severe punishment -> deterEmpirical evidence weak (certainty strongest)Theory is now a perceptual theoryCriminology 105Classical CriminologyTheories and Practices 07/02/2011 09:08:00← How do we decide what makes a good theory?- Accuracy- Testability- Simplicity- Broad in scope- Policy-relevant- Solve puzzles; generating interest and research- Relevant to current sentimentKeep these in the back of your mind when going over theories←← “Metaphysical” era of Criminology – 18th century- Scholars, philosophers thinking and writing about crime and punishment← Key Classical Theorists- Cesare Beccariao Punishment should be swift, certain, severo Control crime by making fear of punishment greater than any benefits- Jeremy Benthamo People are hedonistic – act to maximize pleasure o Utilitarian Punishment - Punishment: Deter THAT person and everyone else← Emergence of Neoclassicism - Classicism was embraced for almost 100 years.o Influential in US Bill of Rights- Beginning in 1870’s, positivism emergedo Interest in the actor not the actions- Mid-20th century, classicism reappears o Early Deterrence Theory← Early Deterrence Theory- Assumption:o Humans are rational, self-interested creatureso Guided by utilityo People make choice to commit crime- Tried to prove that death penalty is the worst punishment and states that had it would have the lowest crime rateso Couldn’t be proven← Revitalization of Deterrence- Deterrence theory predicts:o Swift, certain, and severe punishments will result in lower crime- Early deterrence research (1968-1975) o Macro (state-level) studies; official datao Certainty (somewhat) matterso Severity has weak or no effecto Swiftness not measured ← Criticisms of Early Deterrence Work- Only 1 of 3 components shown any support- Measuring at aggregate level- Non-deterrence mechanisms not measured ← Survey in California, 1968- Asked people questions about crime and deterrenceo Most people have NO IDEA about: State’s crime rate Certainty of punishment Severity of punishments for crimes ← Deterrence and Perception- Geerken and Gove (1975)o Deterrence theory formally restated as a perceptual theoryo Individual-levelo As perceived certainty of getting caught increases…offending decreases - Supportedo People who perceive high certainty of getting caught are less likely to commit crimes Measuring Perceptions- 1980s: Temporal Ordering Issueso Perceptions may change!o 1st interview- measure perceptions of certainty, time lapseo 2nd interview – ask about crime in time lapse- Research shows that perceptions of certainty matter much less when measured this way ← Deterrence and Punishment- Prior to 1970’s: Rehabilitation Modelo Treating, restoring inmates- 1970’s: “Get Tough” punishment movement:o Just Deserts o Retribution – eye for an eyeo Incapacitation – prevent crime by locking them up← Deterrence and Policy- Mandatory sentenceso “Three Strikes”- Boot camps- Police Policieso Preventive patrol o Patrolling around in their cars to increase perception of civilians← Scared Straight- Movie – Idea: Expose ‘at risk’ juveniles to rough environment- When tested, these programs actually found to have
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