The “Science” of Criminology--Philosophical approach—foundation.The politicization of scienceScience is commonly used to advance political claims: racism, sexism, environmentalism, fascism/ socialism…Nearly every “ism” and ALL political groups attempt to claim the legitimacy of scienceEstablishing “facts” is the key to winning debateThe definition of CriminologyThe systematic study of (1) the processes of making law, (2) the breaking of law, and (3) the reaction to the breaking of lawPolitics—Theory—Criminal JusticeIs Criminology a Science? Yes (kind of sort of) and noYESTheory (explains why something happens)Methods (Quantitative—number # and Qualitative—stories)Science is a methodology about testing thingsNO No way of explaining future outcomes; lack predictability; no specific definition of crime.Q: What role does the field play in shaping policy?A: Negligible“Can we imagine major legislative decisions on health policy without careful consultation of doctors, insurance executives, and health care administrators?”How about crime legislation w/o criminologists?Q: Why does criminology, as a science, lack credibility?A: We lack predictive powerPrime example, crime declined in 1991Lack the ability to anticipate things…However… We’ve been able to discredit several proposed solutions, such as:1. Boot Camps2. Death Penalty3. Three-Strikes legislation4. DARE—enormous program; enhances the use of alcohol and drugs5. Scared Straight—engage in criminal behavior6. Gun buy-backsSocial sciences tend to over predict criminal behaviorSunny side of equation: criminology has established that these are failed programs… repeated investigations and evaluation have discovered that these programs do not workRate of prison: about 2/3 of people who are released, in 3 years, 50/50 chance they will be returning to prisonNevertheless several of these programs remain. Why?Ideology (def.: a set of beliefs or values that ALL of us develop, usually unconsciously, about the way that the world is or ought to be.)Range of ideology—Conservative (right): punitive and repressiveLiberal (left): forgiving and rehabilitativeIn a democracy we get to shape policy through voting. This is informed by ideology.The problem in creating a science—evidence the field is NOT a scienceWhat is “crime”?The definition is not fixed and unchanging1. Legal definition (nulla poena sine lege)—no punishment without the crime2. Social harm (problems: loss of clarity, victimless crimes)Measuring Crime—Catching the Wind with a SieveMost crime that takes place in this country is not reported to the policePolice need to know that crime took place in order to do something aboutUCR/NCVS Comparison (2x as large)Unknown element: will always be present in equationThe Distribution of Crime—crime patternsScope of the Crime Problem (UCR data)11,250,000 index crimes 2007 (3,370 per 100,000)Murder rate of 6/100,000 is 5x the avg. rate for other 15 industrialized nations(NCVS)22.9 MIL victimizationsViolent crime rate nearly 5x that of the UCRProperty rate more than 4x that of the UCRCrime “Clock” (UCR)Violent crime every 22 secondsMurder every half hourRape every 6 minutesRobbery every minuteBurglary every 15 secondsTheft every 5 secondsMore accurate crime clockevening and nighttime hours have more crimeweekends also have higher ratesalcohol raises crime patternsHistorical Trends* Comparisons to 13th century England reveal rates that were 10 to 20 times as great as they are today* Crime rose markedly in 60s and 70s –Hippies; drugs.* Crime fell dramatically beginning in 1991--* police didn’t exist as an entity until 19th centuryMeasuring Crime—Catching the Wind with a SieveLogic-systematic approachImpediment: defining crimeCriminology is a genuine and social science—measurement and testingIdeas—determine whether notions and ideologies have connection to reality as it exists.Research Methodology—VocabularyIndependent (IV) and dependent variables (DV)IV: cause(s) of/ cause and effectDV: Outcome (what we are attempting to explain)Oftentimes more difficult to establish than you would anticipate—reciprocal relationships--crime and poverty experience will bare these outIV DV: one causes the other; expectation and anticipation of an outcomeIV examples: race/ economic status/ unemployment rate/ education level or lack of education/ gender (sex)/ mental illness/ IQ level/ age/ low incomeDV examples: location of crime/ frequency of crime/ violent versus nonviolent crimes/ imprisonment rates/ burglary and homicide rates/ victimization patterns/ prosecutorial/ recidivism (re-offending/ crime engagement)Does my assigning a paper produce the needless death of students’ grandmothers?Correlation and causality—buzzfeed: the 10 most bizarre correlationsJust because two items are consistently related (correlated) does not imply a causal connectionExample: my having an umbrella handy every time it rains does not mean I control the weather.Temporal (i.e. Time) ElementCross sectional data: data collected at only 1 point in time (ex: snapshot)—can lead us to conclusion that one causes anotherLongitudinal data: data collected at more than 1 point in time (ex: movie/film)Levels of AnalysisMacro: groupsGangsNeighborhoodsStatesNationsMicro: individualTo establish causality: 3 criteria1. Correlation (it is a necessary but insufficient condition)2. Temporal ordering3. Spuriousness must be eliminatedDifficulty with criminology—definition of crime and how crime actually occursThe Dark Figure of Crime: total crime rate (we don’t know this, but we try to estimate it with…) –lingering element; criminals don’t tend to advertise their crimes.Major elements: Official StatisticsVictimization SurveysSelf-Report (their overlap helps us understand crime better)Prison numbers do a poor job of giving crime estimates; why cant we take prison counts? Not everyone gets arrested, plea bargains, one prisoner does not always equal one crime ONLY! Maybe they have a wide variety of criminal behaviors.A lot of crime goes undetected and not reported to the authorities—criteria of “truth” has reasonable doubt—bar is set high.Why is it that individuals engage in criminal behavior—criminologySources of Crime StatisticsEarly sources of statistics:Local arrest numbers: can varyCourt recordsJail and prison population countsMedia accountsContemporary efforts:Official reportsVictim
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