Citizens collective attitudes and beliefs about politics and government Why should government find it prudent to heed public opinion Study Guide First Exam POS 1041 Public Opinion What is public opinion It improves representation It influences public policy It help lobbyists make their case It reflects changes in public support Why is public opinion important Informs candidates as to their strengths and weaknesses Informs funders were to put money Entertainment the horse race What conclusions can we draw from long term trends in public opinion on issues such as support for death penalty and same sex marriage Death Penalty will always be supported by the people gay marriage has changed from not okay to okay What are core political values that make up ideology Individualism Role of government View of primacy of economic market Equal opportunity Moral issues Would you describe ideology over time as fluctuating or fairly stable unchanging Unchanging there will always be people who are liberal moderate and conservative We all will not be one ideology What are the two ways that citizens are politically socialized Know what each encompasses Primacy principle Structuring principle What aspects of public opinion do political science study Approval ratings president Overall view of government and institutions Assessments of political knowledge participation Demographics Did the Founding Fathers trust the public Did early political scientists trust the public They both did not What is the more current view of public opinion Why are we more optimistic today voters have cues Over time broad issues don t change What are the two most important elements in assuring that a public opinion poll sample is trustworthy What other questions should you ask about a survey in order to trust the sample Must be large 1 000 is standard Must be randomly selected Do we see unscientific surveys How dealt with cell phones How was the survey weighted When was the survey conducted How long was survey in the field How was the survey conducted Who conducted the survey Who paid for the survey Who was interviewed Registered voters Republicans only Democrats only No screens Likely voters What are examples of unscientific surveys Call in polls Man on the street On line polls Shopping mall polls Polls at political events Push polls would you support if you knew What is a margin of error and how is it interpreted If 35 percent of Florida respondents support Gov Scott with a margin of error of 3 what does this mean Polls say margin of error is 3 or sometimes 3 Means 95 percent confident the real number is within Margin of Error It means that between 32 38 of Florida Residents support Gov Scott What is the most typical size of the public opinion poll with a margin of error of 3 800 1000 Poorly worded or poorly ordered questions can lead to what type of error Why is this important Measurement error because these questions can be misleading and can lead to biased polls What is the framing effect as related to question order Important because of framing effect Where previous questions can affect later question answers How does having a large number of don t knows affect the value of poll results Because men are more likely to guess than women Push polls aren t really polls Why not What are exit polls and what advantage to they have over telephone polls Exit polls are conducted by people who ask voters who they voted for after they leave their place of voting According to your assignment what is the primary purpose of an exit poll Exit polls are also used to collect demographic data about voters and to find out why they voted as they did Why will exit polling conducted the morning of an election generally NOT reflect actual election results assignment Because a lot of voters go after work when voting Why do good surveys use both landlines and cell phone respondents assignment Because now a days a lot of people will answer their cell if they do not have a landline phone Why do callers make many attempts to each every number assignment Because then they are polling more of a variety more genders race age education Why are responses weighted to match gender age education race Hispanic origin region and population density assignment So that way people can see how each group voted What problems did the students in video on exit polling shown in class encounter Voting and Political Participation What are examples of political participation Influence how others vote Wear button put sticker on car Give money to a party or candidate Attend a political meeting Write letters to your elected officials Work for the party of the candidate Have resources Have interest SOMEBODY ASKED Describe what types of people are most likely to participate in politics What is it about the American system that makes voting so important Representative democracy What is the simple calculus to predict whether people will vote What can states do to reduce the costs of voting What are the costs of voting Monetary Time involved Informational Providing convenience voting Making registration easier Vote on Saturday holiday What are the benefits of voting Civic duty Feeling of efficacy Social pressure Provide information on candidates so people will know how to vote What groups are most likely to vote College Educated Whites Older people Higher Income What are the three ways to measure turnout Which is most in use and why Denominators differ voting age population VAP Most used voting eligible population VEP Including Illegals Felons those who can t vote registered voters Looking at presidential turnout rates over the past 60 years what is the bad news What is the good news What are the recent trends in voter turnout of 18 29 years olds How do presidential and non presidential midterm turnouts differ Midterm turnout is typically lower What governmental level has the primary responsibility for voting and elections States What decisions does this level make Who can vote How easy is it to vote When primaries are held What are ways to make voting easier We discussed in class felon voters Florida is one of the toughest states in this area What are the arguments for these tough standards What are the arguments against them Does Florida have early voting No excuse absentee voting Require photo ID Do all states use no excuse absentee voting Early voting All mail voting Early voting show ID No Supporters of mandatory voting might argue what Opponents of mandatory voting
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