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USC IR 210 - IR Lecture 23

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Reminder: Homer-Dixon Revised 3 causal paths 3) The multiple effects of environmental scarcity appear very likely to weaken sharply the capacity and legitimacy of the state.**… because they increase financial and political demands on governments that they can’t satisfy.**… and lead to the further concentration of resources in the hands of some elitesHomer Dixon model.Implications for international security 1)Countries under the stress of sub national conflict may fragment. 2)A state might prevent fragmentation, but only by becoming more authoritarian, intolerant of opposition, and even militarized and hostile to neighbors.Environmental Scarcity And Violent Conflict: Remaining Questions 1) Given that the worlds population will continue to increase, what can be done about this very serious problem? EXAMPLES.2)What is the role of global civil society? (Examples)3)What is the role of nationalism in helping to solve the problem or cause is to worsen? (Examples)4) What actually will happen, and why? (examples)3 approaches to the human resource ratio problem. 1) Neo-Malthusians argue that finite natural resource supplies place strict limits on the growth of human population and consumption.2)Neoclassical economics contended that there are no limits to growth and consumption because markets function to equilibrate demand and supply.3) Distributionists acknowledge limits to population growth but argue that the main problems we face stem from the unequal distribution of resources.Homer Dixons: Endogenous Growth Theory: Ideas, as embodied in new technologies should be considered a factor of economic production just like capital, labor, and land. Moreover, its not just ideas about technologies. Its also ideas about social organization and institutions. Ingenuity: the generation of practical ideas about how to use technology and social organization to solve problems. But an increase in the ingenuity supplied by a society indicates simply an increase in the # of ideas it applies to practical problems. It doesn’t necessarily indicate an increase in the quality of the ideas.Key Question: Will Humans generate and disseminate sufficient ingenuity in the coming decades to keep scarcity from negativity affecting our well-being?Technical And Social Ingenuity: Humans need technical ingenuity to address problems in the physical world and social ingenuity to address problems in the social (including political) world.The 3 good and important things social ingenuity does: It provides psychological and material incentives to technological entrepreneurs and innovators. It facilitates communication among experts. It channels resources preferentially to those endeavors wit the greatest prospect of success. But the ingenuity required to adjust to resource scarcity is produced not only by people at the top of the social hierarchy. Many of the ideas needed for successful adjustment are produced at the community and household levels: local knowledge.The demand for ingenuity: The constant satisfaction requirement: indicates the amount of ingenuity needed to compensate for social disutility caused by a resource scarcity – maintaining a current level of human satisfaction.The supply of ingenuity: The supply is determine by: the price society is willing to pay for ingenuity. Availability of financial and intellectual capital. Societies capacity to generate practical knowledge; and peoples willingness to undergo social and technological change. So first an idea may be generated but will people use i?Question: Under what circumstances will “ingenuity gaps” developed and become chronic? When they do, resource scarcities will present insurmountable problems, and the society will become mired in poverty. It will also become more likely—base on the logic we discussed last time – to become violent.paradox: of Homer: the ingenuity requirement to compensate for scarcities greater than that for non renewable resources... why?IR LECTURE 23Reminder: Homer-Dixon Revised 3 causal paths3) The multiple effects of environmental scarcity appear very likely to weaken sharply the capacity and legitimacy of the state. **… because they increase financial and political demands on governments that they can’t satisfy. **… and lead to the further concentration of resources in the hands of some elitesHomer Dixon model.Implications for international security1)Countries under the stress of sub national conflict may fragment.2)A state might prevent fragmentation, but only by becoming more authoritarian, intolerant of opposition, and even militarized and hostile to neighbors. Environmental Scarcity And Violent Conflict: Remaining Questions1) Given that the worlds population will continue to increase, what can be done about this very serious problem? EXAMPLES.2)What is the role of global civil society? (Examples)3)What is the role of nationalism in helping to solve the problem or cause is to worsen? (Examples)4) What actually will happen, and why? (examples)3 approaches to the human resource ratio problem. 1) Neo-Malthusiansargue that finite natural resource supplies place strict limits on the growth of human population and consumption. 2)Neoclassical economics contended that there are no limits to growth and consumption because markets function to equilibrate demand and supply. 3) Distributionists acknowledge limits to population growth but argue that the main problems we face stem from the unequal distribution of resources.Homer Dixons: Endogenous Growth Theory: Ideas, as embodied in new technologies should be considered a factor of economic production justlike capital, labor, and land. Moreover, its not just ideas about technologies. Its also ideas about social organization and institutions. Ingenuity: the generation of practical ideas about how to use technology and social organization to solve problems. But an increase in the ingenuity supplied by a society indicates simply an increase in the # of ideas it applies to practical problems. It doesn’t necessarily indicate an increase in the quality of the ideas.Key Question: Will Humans generate and disseminate sufficient ingenuity in the coming decades to keep scarcity from negativity affecting our well-being?Technical And Social Ingenuity: Humans need technical ingenuity to address problems in the physical world and social ingenuity to address problems in the social (including political) world. The 3 good and


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