Ch 1 Psychology and Scientific Thinking – Guided Notes Science is a ______________ of ___________. Psychology is the scientific study of the ________, mind, and ______________. Levels of Analysis: Psychology spans multiple levels of analysis. For example, take depression. We can study depression at different levels: Social = loss of important relationships and social support, Behavioral = decrease in pleasurable activities, Mental = depressed thoughts, Neurological = brain size and function, Neurochemical = difference in neurotransmitters, Molecular = differences in genes give rise to predisposition for depression Human behavior is ___________________ determined. • Violence: Poverty? Lack of education? Genes? • _____________ differences. • ______________Cultural differences. • __________________ _____________________ – People influence each other’s behavior. • Psychology is complicated! No clear answers. Insights possible through the use of the _________________ ____________________. Naïve Realism: Seeing = believing (but this is a problem since we know that we can be misled by what we see). To guard against these problems, we use the scientific method. • Scientific _____________: Explanation for a _________ number of findings in the natural world. • Not just mere explanation of findings but CRUCIALLY:  ______________ regarding new data! • A testable prediction: ______________. methodinquirybrainbehaviormultipliedIndividualCulturalReciprocalDeterminismScientificMethodTheory largePredictions hypothesisTheory vs Hypothesis • What’s the difference? – Hypothesis: specific prediction for a __________________ event • “If I drop this book, it will fall” • Your own example: _______________________________ – Theory: framework for understanding a larger phenomenon • E.g.: theory of gravity • Can derive ______________many hypotheses from a theory: for example from the theory of gravity, I can derive the hypothesis (i.e., prediction about a single event) that the Moon and the Earth are attracted to each other and so the height of tidal waves will be affected by that pull. I can also derive another prediction about how fast a ball will come back down to the ground if I throw it up based on the gravitational force between the ball and the Earth. So many hypotheses can be derived from a single theory. • Your own example of another scientific theory: ___________________________ • Theory is the ultimate goal of science – Integrated understanding of a phenomenon FALSIFIABILITY (very important concept): • Falsify: to prove wrong • A good theory can be proven wrong • A bad theory can never be proven wrong • Example of a good theory: Einstein’s Theory of General Relativity. • Example of a bad theory: The Universe exists entirely in one's own mind (Solipsism) singleWidely Misunderstood: "Evolution is just a theory"Note that a theory (or associated hypothesis) can be wrong and still be scientific as long as it is possible to show that it is wrong! So for example, here is a hypothesis that is clearly wrong but is scientific by definition: Hypothesis: All birds can fly. Verdict: This is a scientific hypothesis because if somebody believes this statement to be false, it is possible to actually show that it is false: all it takes is an observation of a bird that cannot fly to prove the hypothesis wrong. Here is a hypothesis that isn’t very obviously false but is not scientific: Hypothesis: Since Nature is so beautiful and since we don’t understand everything about it nor does it seem like we ever will, we must assume that there is a supernatural force that controls all natural phenomena. Verdict: This is a metaphysical claim that cannot be proven false by the scientific method. So while people may believe this statement to be true or false, the scientific method cannot be employed here to come to a verdict because what kind of observation can be made that can show that this hypothesis is false? If such an observation doesn’t exist, then that makes this hypothesis UNFALSIFIABLE. So this hypothesis is not scientific. • Theories that are not falsifiable cannot be investigated by science • Why is falsifiability such a strong principle for how Science ought to be done? • “All swans are white”. – Very strongly scientific. It only takes one observation of a black swan to prove this wrong and so this hypothesis is in principle falsifiable. So this is scientific. Think about the card puzzle very carefully! Remember, a good scientist always seeks to falsify his/her hypothesis!! So which card would you pick? A? 2? 7? K? The right answer(s): _______________ Reason: A 2________________________ Bias: • Bias toward confirming your own ideas or hypotheses – …without looking to falsify a hypothesis Science as a safeguard against these biases: • Science isn’t perfect, but it can help protect us against biases or errors in thinking • Confirmation bias: the tendency to seek out evidence that supports our beliefs • _______________ _____________________: the tendency to stick to our original beliefs even in the face of contradictory evidence • The metaphysical is out of bounds of Science. • WHY? Those claims are not ________________, hence not scientific. SIX PRINCIPLES FOR SCIENTIFIC THINKING 1. Ruling out rival hypotheses We need to ask ourselves: is this the only good explanation for this finding? Have we ruled out all important _______________ explanations? 2. _____________ isn’t _______________ Correlation: two things that are related to each other, or _______________ with each other, not ___________________ each other. 3. Falsifiability Falsifiability: capable of being disproved Must specify in advance what counts as evidence for and what counts as evidence against “All the teams playing today will either win or lose” vs. “OSU will win by 14, Michigan will lose by 30, Penn State will win by 6” ConfirmationBelief Perseverance Never falsify, belief isn't worngcompetingCorrelationCausationassociatedthat one causes4. Replicability If a study’s findings can’t be duplicated consistently, then it’s possible that the original findings were due to chance or a fluke