10 29 2014 Nov 4 Nuclear Weapons Deterrence and Proliferation I Why don t we use our nuclear weapons a Destructiveness Because nuclear weapons are destructive not a good answer i But so are any other weapon we may use They re designed to be destructive So that statement doesn t make much sense ii WWI and WWII are known as the only 2 total wars this world has seen Most destructive wars we haven t replicated that sense iii During WWII bombing of civilians was acceptable seen as a way to break the morale of the civilian population and achieve victory iv Weapons are designed to be destructive and were once considered acceptable to use against civilians 1 Firebombing used on German cities in WWII gets extremely hot melts asphalt very destructive In Tokyo between 80 000 and 120 000 civilians dead due to firebombing by the US a Napalm is similar 2 Daisy cutter US uses Device placed on a bomb that allows it to detonate before it hits the ground for much greater impact Horizontal spray of explosion b Battlefield Utility Some say it doesn t have battlefield utility but that s not true We have advanced to tactical nuclear weapons i Tactical nuclear weapon 1 For example a nuclear war head fitted to a missile 2 Have less impact than a nuclear bomb itself 3 We still don t use these though we have them a Mainly due to audience cost that we don t use them We are a democracy and made up of a lot of people who don t support the use of those weapons b Would also have an international impact if we used them c They re Wrong Immoral i This idea didn t exist at the time of their conception ii It s the idea that these weapons take it to a next level and in doing so it crosses a moral boundary becoming morally wrong iii By the end of 1940s individuals and states began condemning their use 1 Norm of non use began a Nuclear Taboo Nina Tannenwald Its not just taboo to use them it would be taboo to even threaten them or just talk about using them There is an escalation process but when we do have to threaten the use of force we never threaten the use of nuclear force b When polled 80 supported the use of the atom bomb on Japan shortly after the war had ended c Human tragedy of Hiroshima and Nagasaki i At first glance looked the same as firebombing The first thing that was different was the mushroom cloud Then they noticed other strange things such as shadows burned into walls and such ii Why Hiroshima and Nagasaki They weren t hit by firebombing so we wanted to know the effects of the atom bomb Hiroshima is surrounded by mountains so the impact reverberated iii But we realized nuclear weapons continued to kill beyond the war Impact death toll 70 000 iv v By the end of 1945 it had doubled to 140 000 Then when we follow up to 1950 death toll is 200 000 vi Continued to kill because of radiation vii Years and years beyond the war women were giving birth to horribly deformed babies as a result of the radiation damage to their bodies viii Also the concern of atmospheric contamination radiation could then go potentially anywhere Radioactive fallout After WWII it was thought that this was the way weaponry was going but then as we observed what happened in Japan and world opinion shifted we see change to norm non use ideology But plenty of other nations became nuclear powers Deterrence kicks in Balance of terror fear of nuclear war and nuclear fallout II Effects on Policy Norm of non use extended to include any weapons of unconventional capacity meaning biological and chemical as well Impacts our relations with other nuclear powers Leads to ways to seek control or ban these weapons none were willing to ban them between the cold war powers though a NPT 1968 signed with the Soviet Union Trying to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and limit our own capabilities without eliminating them Today every power has signed except for India Pakistan Israel and South Sudan North Korea had signed but then pulled out Enforceable through sanctions through the UN and UN security council Commits all signatory powers to monitoring b Biological 1972 and Chemical Weapons 1993 Biological Weapons Treaty world powers come together to say they will not use biological weapons Chemical Weapons Convention This is why Syria has been a large issue recently because there has been claim that Syria has used chemical weapons against their own population c Disarmament vs Deterrence which type of approach would we take Liberal approach disarmament remove them and destroy them and replace this with vigorous diplomacy Opposed to weapons or the threat of using them But neither the US or USSR was willing to go that route there was no trust Deterrence initially what we saw Each armed with as much as they could get nuclear arms race We needed a lot of weapons and way to defend ourselves under attack We needed to be capable of initiating the first strike second strike Some were afraid we would initiate the war we were trying to avoid in our frenzy so began to calm down in the 60s Began looking at arms control Not disarming but reducing the number we have Maybe eliminating some downsizing Maybe don t work on developing new technology III Arms Control History see slide From MAD to MAP o Mutual Assured Destruction everyone is hurt By Maintaining vulnerability to the other side means that you will not be the first one to push the button History 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty means we both agree to no atmospheric testing bc of fear of atmospheric contamination 1968 NPT 1968 SALT I Strategic Arms Limitations Talks lessening the amount of weapons and limiting ICBMs 1972 ABM Treaty limited ICBM interceptors attached to SALT I this has been challenged By Reagan talked about the strategic defense initiative SDI he proposed we put these interceptors in space star wars no capabilities to do it ABM aggregated by George W Bush because he felt we needed to have a defense system in place against the rogue nuclear powers such as Iran or North Korea This has been maintained by President Obama 1979 SALT II This was to limit the development of new intercontinental ballistic missiles ICBMs And to reduce the number of weapons we had in general This was not ratified by Congress Soviet Afghan proxy war heated things up so Congress would not ratify 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty says we will not test nuclear weapons at all Meaning if we can t test them we can t develop new ones 1990s START 1991 1993 1997 Strategic Arms Reduction Talks In some ways a reversal We began
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