Post-Cold War PredictionsMearshimerRealists point of viewWe were going to miss the cold war because of its stabilityHuntingtonPredicted conflict in the Post cold war periodHe was concerned about a clash of civilizationsFukuyamaOptimistic about our prospects of peace moving forwardW the end of the cold war, democracy had triumphedDemocracy was going to spread to other states and as democracy spreads he predicts peace will prevailWaves of Democracy1. 1800sLiberal ideas of the enlightenment begin to take hold in Europe2. Post WWIIDemocracy had taken in most of Europe begins to spread to Latin America3. End of the Cold WarGrowing in Latin America and AfricaGave champions of Democracy optimism that democracy was going to spread throughout the wordThis signaled the End of History for FukuyamaFukuyama’s “End of History”Written as democracy is on the rise“The endpoint of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of western liberal democracy as the final form of human government”This is constructivism. Identity perspective. Looks at ideas, norms, and valuesNot a formalized theory like Realism and LiberalismLooks forwards instead of backwardsStumbling blocks are ideology and religionFocusing on Ideological evolution which gives us democracy. (the logical end)HegelGerman PhilosopherInterprets history in a non materialistic way3 components to mankind’s makeup1. SurvivalWe are most concerned with surviving2. ReasonHelps us figure out how to survive3. Innate SpiritednessA desire of recognition from othersMans desire for recognition compels us to competeIt is a competition for recognition/prestige – NOT POWERDemocracy gives that recognitionIts not about who is more or less powerful, it is about equalityDemocracy recognizes the states as being equalStates no longer have to compete for that recognitionStates can now interact as equalsPreeminence of ideasHistory is the evolution of dominant ideas over timeIdeas help to shape our political and social organizationIdeas that determine the economic system of the powersTeleological HistoryIts not random eventsIt is a continual linear development from one point to an ending point (liberal democracy taking hold)Beginning Middle and EndPrimitive timesLed to governmentAnswer tended to be different forms of government/dominationEmpiresFeudalismSlaveryMiddleLiberal-DemocracyThe idea of Liberal Democracy was the most importantCame out of the enlightenmentIndividual rights and equalityLiberal Democracy has multiple componentsDemocracyEqualityWe cannot have a form of government that doesn’t involve the consent of the governedLimited governmentIndividual Rights (Freedom of Speech)Right to own private propertyThese rights increase the power of the peopleCapitalism (Free Market)ChallengersCommunism and Fascism in the 20th century both failOnly one thing leftLiberal DemocracyFukuyama says we have reached the end of historyFukuyama says that we will no longer have the HUGE ideological wars30 years warWWIIModernization TheoryIndustrializationDemocracy is the byproduct of this economic developmentAs we developed economically it changed the political environmentSocieties TransformedDestabilized political systemsEmergence of Bourgeois,Middle class, started putting pressure on the political system for rights that included themProletariatWorking classThey fuel the industrial processThey began forming unions to put pressure on the political system for rightsUrbanizationCities before this had relatively small populationAll workers needed to get to the same place where the jobs wereIncreased communication between the peopleEducationTook off as a result of industrializationNeeded people who could continue the industrial process. Not just workersPeople are more aware and demandingCivil SocietyMoving away from military society/regimesThe result is democracyThe government has to grant rights to the peopleThe wealthiest and most modern states tend to be democraciesTend to have CapitalismChina is a challengerAlso very poor countries that are democraticModernization theory is not consistent with FukuyamaIt is a liberal argument, not IdentityFor Fukuyama you don’t need to have modernization to get democracyDemocratic StabilityMaybe modernization doesn’t cause democracy, but wealth Does provide Democratic StabilityA lot of the poorer countries that have adopted democracies aren’t very stable but the wealthier countries areHow can Wealth contribute to stabilityWealth make a civil societyMiddle class has the most to gainWealth contributes to advances in educationThe wealthier a state is, the higher the cost of transition if it moves away from democracyEvidence supports that wealthier democracies are the most stableDemocratic Peace3 Main PointsAs democracy has spread, peace has gone with itThose in favor of democratization say it is going to bring democracies togetherThey say it is going to decrease warfare and conflictSince democracies yield equality, there is noData says that over the past 4 decades, democracies don’t fight each otherIt also shows that typically democracies do not go to warcompetition and thus no warsIf democracies are less militaristic and more likely to hold up peace, then we see peace prevail as democracy spreadWe still exist in anarchyDemocracies prefer each other for trade and diplomacyWe tend to speak more often and freely with other democraciesOur trade ties tend to be deeper with fellow democracies because we trust them to stand by their economical agreements with usFrom the identity perspectivesDemocratic peace according to our IR PerspectivesIdentity ViewsThey are great supporters of the spread of democracyShared values and beliefs tie us together to friendships and trustThe world can only gain from the continued spread of democracyLiberal ViewsMajor proponents of democratizationLess likely to go to war because we are deeply involved in cooperation and tradeWar would threatened those absolute gainsRealist ViewsThey don’t believe that democracy is guaranteed peaceIn the context of the cold war, we expect the democracies to work togetherThey still believe the democracies could go to warNot as optimistic in the ability of democratization to ensure peaceHow does Democracy Help Prevent War?Public constraintsPoliticians do not have all power and authority. They must answer to the peopleThe policies of the government should be consistent with the will of the peopleDemocratic cultureDemocratic populations don’t tend to
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