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I Post Cold War Predictions Democracy spread to most of the world after WWII along with the spread of nation states Nation states expanded o Rise in democracy Idealists Mearsheimer polar world and we would miss it Fukuyama o More optimistic than the others Samuel Huntington o Predicted there would be increased cooperation o Predicted that after the cold war ended we would lost stability of bi o also predicted conflict but that it would be far larger than the conflict the realists predicted and for a very different reason o Similar to the realists o Conflict will be at the civilizational level i e radical Islam vs the West II Waves of Democracy There were a lot of them The current one is the largest III Fukuyama s End of History Frances Fukuyama was very optimistic Believed there would be o Increased prosperity o Increased peace o Expansion of democracy Fukuyama is particularly responding to the spread of democracy That post Cold War spread of democracy is to Fukuyama the end of the journey that is history o Does not mean that human progression has ended A Hegel Understands mankind We also have the ability to reason and a need for survival What democracy does is equalize all individuals under the law Democracy in states also means that other states believe each other to be equal so states no longer desire to be hegemons compete with each other Innate spiritedness This represents constructivism now aka the identity perspective We find our self worth because we have the ability to reason and an innate spiritedness C Teleological History Implying a linear logical natural progression up to modern day Fukuyama sees history as a history of ideas and these shape social and political situations o Idea drives formation of government and shapes the types of economy However a great deal of other ideologies popped up even in the west such as Marxism and anarchism D Liberal Democracy people don t see the need for recognition because everyone is created equal under democracy identity perspectives o power is used to gain prestige realists say o prestige is used to gain power Liberal democracy was born out of ideas of the Enlightenment o According to Fukuyama o Include freedom and limited government for and of the people o The government grants and protects freedom and liberty for the people Liberal democracy 3 components o Having the democratic rule that limits the role of the government If we are equal there is no justifications for a form of rule that dominates the people o Ensure the rights of the individual with the law byt limiting power of government o The existence of a market economy capitalism that gives opportunities to all All individuals have right to own property o If not then one class is going to dominate the other class Most European countries have social democracies not liberal democracies Faced two major conflicts in the 20th Century against communism and fascism Fascism was destroyed in WWII leaving only communism o Communism was a major challenger to liberal democracy IV Explanations for Democracy A Industrialization Democracy was born due to severe economic and social changes in Europe after the Industrial Revolution which completely changed society It transforms democracy the underlying society which will uproot the preexisting political system government B Societies Transformed Bourgeoisie o First new class o Rich middle class in France factory owners not part of the nobility o They start challenging old society as they had none of the rights of the nobility Proletariat o Challenge society so they can have those rights o Unskilled workforce within the industrial countries and urban class o Below bourgeoisie but better than peasants o Politicized themselves so that they might have rights o Unions would help gain rights Better pay and vacation times safety concerns Urbanization industrial o People start flocking to the cities in order to get jobs especially o However now that people are congregating in the political centers they can politicize themselves far easier o Represent stronger work force Education o An industrial society requires an educated population so that it can o The educated will seek demands from the government though o Students are the most politically active group of citizens in any given improve country Civil Society o Civilian run governments based on the middle class o Not by military governments All of these transform society and democracy arises out of this democracy o Wealthiest countries in the world are democracies C Democracy Prevails D Critiques of Modernization Theory Story of the west Ethnocentric if you assume it will occur for the rest of the world Identity perspectivists say that democracy was a natural fulfillment of the progression of ideas while liberals say that it arose out of industrialized modern institutions Without transformation there shoult not be democracy Industrialization modernization and economic developments are not necessary for democracy Modernization theory is more liberal o Not constructionist V Democratic Stability Theory Wealth is not required for the formation of democracies but it helps to stabilize democracies As values of peace spread we should see less conflict in the world Fukuyama does not say that democracy will end all wars but that wars of power and competition will end as democracy reaches its global fulfillment Democratic Stability I Democratic Peace A 3 main points i democracies do not attack each other 1 curx of democracy peace theory 2 democracies only go to way with non democracies ii we live in anarchy but democracy ensures security and peace 1 2 if democracies don t fight each other we should promote the spread of it if all countries were democracies there would be no way iii democracies prefer each other when referring to trade and diplomacy 1 more open with each other 2 agreements facilitate trade 3 democratic countries trust each other II Democratic peace according to our IR Perspectives A Identity Views i Look at democracies that adhere to value of peace ii Democracies share common set of norms values and ideas iii Binds them together B Liberal Views i Complex interdependence ii Wealth reinforces cooperation iii Democracies rely on diplomacy and communication to settle disputes C Realist Views i Realists don t see democracy as a way to guarantee peace ii Believe it threatens the security of the others iii They work together to counter balance things 1 Without this they would be a threat to each


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FSU INR 3003 - Post-Cold War Predictions

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