Post-Cold War PredictionsA lot of uncertainty coming out of Cold War— What’s going to happen now?No more fear of USSRCold War became familiar and nuclear war led to deterrenceMearsheimer: (realist) drawing on history to predict the future power struggle between states = conflictHuntington: we are going to have a different kind of conflict clash of civilizations, not different political ordersFukuyama: (optimistic, Western) ending of Cold War signified triumph of liberal democracyWe have an ideal political order and expected democracy to continue to spread expect to see less conflict “End of History” (can be controversial if misunderstood)Waves of DemocracyLooking at “End of History” in terms of democracy spreading1) Late 1700s-1800s “Western” powers (U.S., U.K., France, Britain, Belgium, etc.)2) After WWII, after 1945In the 1970s see a dramatic decline in the number of democratic countries3) After Cold War (communism has failed)Fukuyama’s “End of History”A) HegelInterpreted history in a non-materialistic way sometimes is associated with Marx, but this is an unfair association because Marx had a materialistic view pointHuman nature has three components:1) Basic needs for survival2) Ability to reason (helps with #1)3) Innate spiritedness: as humans, we seek approval/recognition from othersAll of these can be applied to the stateGoal = prestige, not power; but, power can help you achieve prestige (like in sports: the title is most important, but you have to be good to win the title)Identity perspective, not realistDemocracy = equalizer we are all equals, apply to individuals and states (democratic states should be considered equals) — Does this end competition?Also, ideal economy that serves people equallyFukuyama = evolution of Hegel’s ideas that pertain to political orderB) Teleological historyFukuyama looks at history of ideas how ideas have given us our current forms of governmentFluid progression of history, natural movement toward where we are nowIdeas: beginning, middle, endProgression: hunter-gatherer empires feudal (slavery) new ideas emerge liberal democracyC) Liberal democracyPolitical philosophy based on liberal ideas from the EnlightenmentCentral claim: individual = core of societyComing from feudal society where the individual had no rights or voice changing the concept of the individual government should work for the people and the people should be equalIdeas create the political system1) DemocracyEveryone is equalIndividuals have a voice through voting2) Limitations on political powerCompromises need to be met (rules)Beyond certain rules, there are compromises the individuals will not makeIndividual freedoms (thought, expression, religion, own private property [something only enjoyed by the nobility])3) Market economy (capitalism)Fukuyama: “End of History” = liberal democracyClashes of ideas different forms of government all have failed, except democracy20th Century = final clash of ideas:Fascism: fails after WWIICommunism: fails after Cold War (economy failed)Liberalism: WINS, spreads when communism failsDoes not claim that democracy means end of conflict (especially economically over resources)No ideological conflict there have been in the past — has given us the largest warsHuntington says the opposite a lot of ideological conflict in the futureModernization TheoryLink democracy with economic growthIndustrialization occurring as democracy spreadsWealth directly linked to democracyShakes up the existing political and social orderSocieties transformedA) Bourgeoisie: new middle class; industrialists (own the means of production) become very wealthy, but in early states, all privilege/status still belongs to nobility going to want to challenge this order demand the right to own propertyWanted to expand freedoms via governmentB) Proletariat: industrial workers fuel industrial movementTerrible working conditions, few rights in the workplace, terrible living conditions, etc.Came to realize they are necessary became unionized and gained rights started demanding things from governmentOften pushed to overthrow the governmentC) Urbanization: people began flooding to industrial and political zones (cities)Increased communication among the people who are equally suffering communicate means to mobilizeHave power in numbersD) Education: emphasis on increasing education build modern societyEnhances awareness, learn how to think students start many movements (cause problems for the government)E) Civil society: not a government dominated society, dominated by the individuals/peopleDemocracy prevails: people start demanding things from the government grow in strength force the government to give in and guarantee protection of freedomsCritiques of ModernizationAn extent of democracy exists in the poorest 40% of countriesChina is not democratic, but has enjoyed economic growth and modernizationVery Western understanding of historyNation-state = natural in the WestNation-state = artificial in non-West Does democracy and the modernization theory apply?Most modern states in Europe are the most democraticIn reality, modernization does not directly lead to democracyi.e. China is not democratic, yet very prosperousi.e. Some very poor countries claim democracyIn reality, wealth helps to stabilize democracyDemocratic StabilityWealth directly leads to democratic stabilityModernization leads to a civil society (the wealthy [middle and upper class] giving power to the people over the government)Wealth civil societyIn democracy, educational opportunities increase, economic growth allows for natural distribution for wealth, provides opportunityDemocracy lends itself to equal opportunityHigher cost of transition into another form of government (a large portion of the population involved in the progress of democracy) solidifies governmentDemocratic stability reinforced by democracy itself and wealth = serving the people bestEvidence for democratic stability: the wealthiest and strongest democracies never drift away from democracy; instead, poor and weak democracies experiment with different forms of governmentDemocratic PeaceDemocratic states seen as equals = peaceClinton’s 1994 State of the Union:1) Democracies do not attack each otherComes from 19th century, Kant (philosopher)End of 19th century = liberal democracies did not fight each
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