Nuclear Weapons Deterrence and Proliferation 11 04 2014 Why don t we use our nuclear weapons A Destructiveness o Because they are too destructive 1 Non nuclear destruction of cities in WWII Dresden firebombing 35 000 people killed 2 Other very lethal weapons Daisy Cutters B Battlefield Utility o Tactical Nuclear Weapons o Depleted Uranium Tank Armer Land Mines C They re Wrong Immoral Intended to be used on the battle field o At first we didn t think so But over time we have seen the devastation and realized that the devastation didn t end with the war o 1 Nuclear Taboo Nina Tannenwald You could destroy the entire planet o 2 Human Tragedy of Hiroshima and Nagasaki 80 of people believe that japan bombing was justified 70 000 to 200 000 people died from Hiroshima o 3 Possibility of Nuclear Winter Explosive power from 12 000 and 20 000 mega tons all together 1953 was the closest time of nuclear winter o Balance of power Balance of Terror A NPT 1968 Nuclear Proliferation Treaty North Korea didn t Effects on Policy sign B Biological 1972 and Chemical Weapons 1993 o Banning Nuclear Weapons o Limit Proliferation o Enforceable through trade sanctions o Monitoring Compliance o 1 1925 Geneva Protocols Prohibited chemical gas attacks o 2 1973 Biological Weapons Treaty Anthrax serin gas o 3 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention Syria States to destroy chemical and biological weapons This has been slow due to environmental impacts o Syria lead chemical attack in 2013 we threatened to bomb but instead signed a treaty saying they would destroy them There probably didn t declare all of them though o These weapons are cheaper to produce and there is more of them C Disarmament vs Deterrence o A Disarmament Unlikely o B Deterrence 1 Extreme buildup A Lots of nukes Both sides were nervous so they got weapons B Defensive Strategies First Strike Capability o The ability to strike first Second Strike Capability o Have enough to get back the attacker C Nuclear Triad ICBM Ground bases missiles Plane Missiles Submarine Missiles 2 Arms Contril MAD A Maintaining 2nd strike Each having the capability to destroy each other This is how you deterred the first strike B Ensure Mutual Vulnerability You had to insure vulnerability You could never be invulnerable Arms Control History see slide From MAD to MAP Strategic defense initiative Star Wars Regan o 1963 Partial Test ban Theory Reduce nuclear fall out above ground Not above ground but only allowed to be tested below Slow nuclear weapons development ground o 1968 NPT o 1968 SALT 1 Limit nuclear arsenals Limit number of weapons out there Problem Monitoring and our weapons weren t proportional o 1972 ABM Treaty Limited ICBM interceptors Product of MAD Defend capitol and one ICMB field When it came down to one Russia chose Moscow we chose ICBM field Intercept and deter weapons from small countries o 1979 SALT 11 Ratified SALT 1 Further reduce number of weapons Chose one place to protect o 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Agreement to ban nuclear testing o 1990 s START 1991 1993 1887 Reduce offensive weapons Moving away from MAD focused on only offensive weapons o 1972 Biological Weapons Treaty o 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention Nuclear Proliferation Realists on Weak New States o Weak states are NOW obtaining nuclear weapons What realists believe that countries should have in order to have Dangerous nuclear weapons o 1 Strong stable governments o 2 Possession of advanced Technology o 3 Possession of modern communication technology o 4 Large stockpiles that were spread out o 5 Precautions against accidents o 6 Solid Security Constructivism and the nuclear norm of non use All of these lead to the non use of nuclear weapons Realist tend not to focus on norms or values or ideas and how they affect policy they focus on power Interests are FIXED This norm affected American Policy Constructivism believes that ideas and values can affect behavior things change And this effects policy They argue that norms so affect the system o Non Use norms Strategy Korea Truman refused to use because A Loss of Life He didn t want to be responsible B World Opinion What would people think of him Aftereffects Why generals wanted to use them A Easiest quickest way to win the war B Normalize them as weapons of war They have not ever been used after Japan even if we totally could Why It has become unacceptable It is perceived as WRONG Additional Terms Balance of Terror First Strike Second Strike Capability Nuclear Triad Balance of Capabilities Mutual Vulnerability ICBM SDI The Clash Of Civilizations Post Cold War Environment Post Cold War 11 04 2014 o 1 Realism Mearsheimer Bio polarity Unipolarity multipolarity o 2 End of History Fukuyama Huntington s Clash of Civilization is direct response to Fukuyama o 3 Liberal Interconnected world due to open communication and cooperation los o 4 Huntington s Clash of Civilizations What are the Civilizations A civilization is the highest cultural grouping of people at the broadest level of cultural identity that people have short of that which distinguishes humans from other species It is defined both by common objective elements such as language history religion customs institutions and by the subjective self identification of people 1993 o Broad above bigger than state Ex Roman being a westerner this is a civilization Hunting s Civilizations o Western North America and Europe o Confucian later Sinic China o Japanese o Islamic o Hindu o Slavic orthodox o Latin American o African o Buddhist Conflict Becomes Civilizational Evolution of conflict o 1 Princes Public itself was not involved Questions about what was good for the elite Fighting for their own interests o 2 Peoples Nationalism changed the perspective The relations of the people and elite had changed and war became between the people Citizen armies where people fighting for THEIR country by volunteer Loyalty o 3 Ideologies Fukuyama War over ideologies EX World War 11 and Post WW11 Has liberal democracy won Does this mean that there is an end to man s ideological evolution Does this apply to the non Western world o Western concepts differ fundamentally from those prevalent in other civilizations Western ideas of individualism liberalism constitutionalism human rights equality liberty the rule of law Why has civilizational identity increased in the age of globalization What about globalization o What impact does it have on these civilizations 1 Weakens local identities in favor of larger civilization
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