Democracy Post Cold War Predictions A lot of uncertainty coming out of Cold War What s going to happen now No more fear of USSR Cold War became familiar and nuclear war led to deterrence Mearsheimer realist drawing on history to predict the future power struggle between states conflict Huntington we are going to have a different kind of conflict clash of civilizations not different political orders Fukuyama optimistic Western ending of Cold War signified triumph of liberal democracy o We have an ideal political order and expected democracy to continue to spread expect to see less conflict End of History can be controversial if misunderstood Waves of Democracy Looking at End of History in terms of democracy spreading 1 Late 1700s 1800s Western powers U S U K France Britain Belgium etc 2 After WWII after 1945 o In the 1970s see a dramatic decline in the number of democratic countries 3 After Cold War communism has failed Fukuyama s End of History A Hegel o Interpreted history in a non materialistic way sometimes is associated with Marx but this is an unfair association because Marx had a materialistic view point o Human nature has three components 1 Basic needs for survival 2 Ability to reason helps with 1 1 3 Innate spiritedness as humans we seek approval recognition from others All of these can be applied to the state o Goal prestige not power but power can help you achieve prestige like in sports the title is most important but you have to be good to win the title Identity perspective not realist o Democracy equalizer we are all equals apply to individuals and states democratic states should be considered equals Does this end competition Also ideal economy that serves people equally o Fukuyama evolution of Hegel s ideas that pertain to political order o Fukuyama looks at history of ideas how ideas have given us our current forms of B Teleological history government o Fluid progression of history natural movement toward where we are now Ideas beginning middle end Progression hunter gatherer empires feudal slavery new ideas emerge liberal democracy C Liberal democracy o Political philosophy based on liberal ideas from the Enlightenment o Central claim individual core of society Coming from feudal society where the individual had no rights or voice changing the concept of the individual government should work for the people and the people should be equal o Ideas create the political system 1 Democracy Everyone is equal Individuals have a voice through voting 2 Limitations on political power 2 Compromises need to be met rules Beyond certain rules there are compromises the individuals will not make Individual freedoms thought expression religion own private property something only enjoyed by the nobility 3 Market economy capitalism o Fukuyama End of History liberal democracy Clashes of ideas different forms of government all have failed except democracy 20th Century final clash of ideas Fascism fails after WWII Communism fails after Cold War economy failed Liberalism WINS spreads when communism fails Does not claim that democracy means end of conflict especially economically over resources largest wars future No ideological conflict there have been in the past has given us the Huntington says the opposite a lot of ideological conflict in the Modernization Theory Link democracy with economic growth Industrialization occurring as democracy spreads o Wealth directly linked to democracy o Shakes up the existing political and social order Societies transformed o A Bourgeoisie new middle class industrialists own the means of production become very wealthy but in early states all privilege status still belongs to nobility going to want to challenge this order demand the right to own property Wanted to expand freedoms via government 3 o B Proletariat industrial workers fuel industrial movement Terrible working conditions few rights in the workplace terrible living conditions etc Came to realize they are necessary became unionized and gained rights started demanding things from government Often pushed to overthrow the government o C Urbanization people began flooding to industrial and political zones cities Increased communication among the people who are equally suffering communicate means to mobilize Have power in numbers o D Education emphasis on increasing education build modern society Enhances awareness learn how to think students start many movements cause problems for the government o E Civil society not a government dominated society dominated by the individuals people Democracy prevails people start demanding things from the government grow in strength force the government to give in and guarantee protection of freedoms Critiques of Modernization An extent of democracy exists in the poorest 40 of countries China is not democratic but has enjoyed economic growth and modernization Very Western understanding of history o Nation state natural in the West o Nation state artificial in non West Does democracy and the modernization theory apply 4 Democratic Peace Most modern states in Europe are the most democratic In reality modernization does not directly lead to democracy o i e China is not democratic yet very prosperous o i e Some very poor countries claim democracy In reality wealth helps to stabilize democracy Democratic Stability Wealth directly leads to democratic stability Modernization leads to a civil society the wealthy middle and upper class giving power to the people over the government o Wealth civil society In democracy educational opportunities increase economic growth allows for natural distribution for wealth provides opportunity o Democracy lends itself to equal opportunity Higher cost of transition into another form of government a large portion of the population involved in the progress of democracy solidifies government o Democratic stability reinforced by democracy itself and wealth serving the people best Evidence for democratic stability the wealthiest and strongest democracies never drift away from democracy instead poor and weak democracies experiment with different forms of government Democratic Peace Democratic states seen as equals peace Clinton s 1994 State of the Union o 1 Democracies do not attack each other Comes from 19th century Kant philosopher End of 19th century liberal democracies did not fight each other found ways to resolve conflicts without war Suggests that democracies are less war like 5 Democracies and non democracies go to war frequently
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