Intro to Realism January 12 2012 WWI and WWII are the beginning of modern international relations in the U S Theories assumptions Classical Realism Hans Morgenthau 1948 Politics Among Nations A response to US idealism after WWI o Proven ineffective after WWII o Emphasis could perfect mankind and society o Reason for WWI flawed political system and flawed leaders tried to fix the system by a series of communication states should talk Focus on sovereign rights of other states Spread democracy League of Nations collective security o Classical realist this is naive because only works if everyone follows the rules Would outright reject the League Early realists war is inevitable natural and is to be expected o Way to avoid war be prepared for it build arms do not be vulnerable o Nature of humans flawed seeks power Similarities between idealists and classical realists there is a problem with the system and its leaders o Idealist solution communication and cooperation o Realist solution war is inevitable Neo Realism Kenneth Waltz Aka Structural Realism o Different from Classical realism the problem is not leaders individuals the problem is the structure of the system how states are aligned o Concerned about surrounding states the structure is most important Assumptions o 1 States are rational unitary actors act out of self interest Want o position themselves in a place to secure the most security Not concerned with ideology o 2 States seek security Just like individuals Protect the state first Survival of the fittest o 3 Anarchy no central governing body in international realm States are on their own insecurity information problem Focus ensuring the state s future survival Expect militant attitude 1 Intro to Realism Balance of Power Realist how states interact with each other in terms of anarchy Intent understand why conflicts occur in order to be prepared and hopefully prevent it in the future not war loving people o Best way to avoid war o Weak and strong states create alliances to become stronger o Alliances are not always set in stone they are fluid relationships o 1 Bandwagoning smaller weaker states join forces with stronger states Enhances stability makes the unit stronger other powers will leave it alone strength in numbers Leads to instability as unit becomes stronger the surrounding states will feel threatened and build up their security out of fear Causes others to form alliances against you Strong states are aware of their strength o 2 Balancing when balanced they offset the power on the other side other alliance Most stable situation Decreases likelihood of attack i e Cold War arms race similarity nuclear weapons prevented nuclear war Polarity o 1 Bipolarity two powers i e Cold War Gives most security but no guarantee things can change o 2 Multi polarity multiple countries allied Increases insecurity and chances of war less stable Major powers need to try to align with each other and create securities o 3 Uni polarity hegemony Hegemonic stability theory the single state will be secure One power the global hegemon has to be so powerful that other countries do not want to challenge it Predicted the world unites against hegemon Never permanent hegemon January 12 2012 Classical realism focus on power Neo realism focus on security Anarchy uncertainty because of lack of global government Regional hegemons exist but global hegemony is impossible Alliances are only temporary in providing security o Zero sum game can defect out of self interest 2 Intro to Realism o Do not know if you can trust other powers Realist is skeptical about institutions being effective because there is no global enforcement no guarantee for security Could see preemptive war states concerned with its own survival o A threat in the making must be stopped before it attacks first o i e US in Vietnam and Korea fear of communism o i e US in Iraq thought WOPD were present security risk to US Realists often oppose preemptive conflicts o i e the invasion of Iraq would lead to more enemies for the US and a larger security dilemma Prisoner s Dilemma realist perspective Conditions o No communication o Do not know each other low sense of trust Prisoner A No Confession Confess Prisoner B No Confession 1 year 1 year Parole Life Confess Life Parole 20 years 20 years Country B Disarm Disarm Lowest Risk Country A Arm A B Arm B A Not the best but the worst option most likely to occur b c there is no trust 3 Intro to Realism WWI Unification of Germany in 1871 major cause of WWI outbreak o At the expense of Denmark Austria and France o Before had been a series of 39 German states o Geography is very important Central Europe had been weak before unification worked as a buffer between E and W Europe Once united upset the balance of power British navy reacts major power o If weak vulnerable to attack security dilemma for Germany o If strong can be an aggressor to surrounding states security dilemma to everyone else o Otto von Bismark most influential in German policy post unification wanted a very strong Germany Germany become a major continental power very quickly in Europe most industrialized strongest military and economy in Europe o Threatened by Germany 1 dismantle Germany after WWI 2 bring it into coalition with Western Europe after WWII each to reduce German power in Europe Otto began to form alliances as a reaction a counter alliance formed o Triple Alliance Italy Austria Hungary Germany o Triple Entente France Britain Russia o Should be able to counterbalance bipolarity balance of power established On paper militarily economically and industrially equal Bipolar situation there should be peace but in fact leads to war o Something went wrong 1 Power transition Britain was the regional hegemon but Germany surpassed it One of the most vulnerable times there are The losing power want to regain its power and the stronger power want to maintain growth and have all the power 2 Power levels of Germany in relation to Russia Germany hit its peak power in 1805 Russia began focusing on industrialization in 1890s and eventually became a stronger industrial power Germany launches preemptive power against Russia while it still can WWI 1914 1918 o Destruction was beyond what had ever been experienced o Aftermath unstable Europe German Russian Austria Hungary Ottoman Empires all o Pyrrhic Victory costs were so high that as a victor you lost even though you fell new states formed technically won 4 Intro to Realism France land economy and
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