Mearsheimer Anarchy and the Struggle for Power INR 3003 Reading Notes Carina Tenaglia Fall 2014 Week 1 Intro I a Argument states inhabit a zero sum world of competition over power b Globalization new era of int l politics c Offensive Realism theory i States want more power for protection to advance interests Why States Pursue Power II a Rejects Milton Friedman s view best theories have most unrealistic assumptions Bedrock Assumptions III a Assumptions i Int l system anarchic 1 Independent states w o authority above them ii Some offensive military capability iii Uncertainty of other states intentions iv Survival primary goal 1 Territorial integrity domestic political order autonomy v Great powers are rational actors 1 Consider other states b Patterns of behavior fear self help power maximization State Behavior a Powers fear each other i German reunification sparked fear through UK France powers ii 911 problem No central authority states can turn to for help 1 No method to punish aggressors b Political antagonism high stakes losses 1 Alliances temporary marriages of convenience ii States serve self interests iii One state s gain another s loss Zero Sum mentality 1 Pursuit for power stops when Hegemony achieved c The Security Dilemma i The measure a state takes to increase its own security decrease that of other states offensive realism ii The best defense is a good offense Calculated Aggression a States want to gain power but won t do so if cost is too high b Clint Eastwood a state has to know its limitations to survive in the int l system c Miscalculations i Judgments made from imperfect information 1 Adversaries have incentive to misrepresent strength aims 2 Aggressors exaggerate peaceful intentions military weakness so victim doesn t build up arms leave state vulnerable to attack Hitler ii Weaponry use in combat is different than training iii Uncertain of resolve of opponent states IV V VI VII Week 2 Mearsheimer Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War 1990 I 1 Germany expected UK to stay out of WWI Hussein expected US to stay out of Kuwait invasion d Defensive realist arguments i Threatened states balance aggressors ultimately crush them ii Offense defense balance usually tilted towards defense making conquest especially difficult e Conquests between 1815 1980 i Initiator aggressor won about 60 of the time Hegemony s Limits a Hegemon only great power in system i Mid 19th century UK not hegemon b c other regional powers b Global v Regional hegemon i There s never been a global hegemon unlikely to be one soon ii Regional Hegemon US is most notorious long lasting 1 US offshore balancer 2 Measures to deal w threatening states from sidelines c Ideal situation i Only regional hegemon in world Conclusion a Structure of int l system causes states to act offensively to achieve hegemony b Other motive survival Intro a Mearsheimer believes that multi polarism is resurfacing in Europe and will lead to future hostilities i Argument distribution and character of military power among states are the root causes of war and peace ii Realist perspective 1 Euro peace since 1945 a Bipolar destruction of military power on continent b Rough military equality btw both powers US USSR c Each power armed w large nuclear arsenal 2 Multi polar distribution similar to era dating back to Peace of Westphalia 1648 until 1945 a Plagued w war during this era b Armed conflict is bred by untamed anarchy c Quotes John Lewis Gaddis comparison of Cold War to Long Peace A Hard Theory of Peace a Causes of violence pre 1945 i European multipolar distribution of power 1 France Germany Great Britain GB Austria Hungary Russia ii Strength imbalance states fight for power 1 Deterrence more difficult to maintain w multiple dyads a Power asymmetries develop b War higher prospect for victory than in bi polar system II b Bipolar System i Example US v USSR ii More peaceful allegiance from smaller powers in each region 1 Constructs more equal rigid alliance structures 2 Deterrence easier with only one dyad pairing a Small gaps foster peace large gaps promote war b More costly war less likely to take risk i Nuclear weapons reason for peace ii More useful for self defense than aggression c Hypernationalism i Belief that other nation states are both inferior threatening 1 Threat that finds itself in military systems relying on mass armies 2 Nuclear weapons deter this a Shift from mass armies toward small high tech organizations d Cold War characteristics frowned upon by masses i Military equality investment for weapons that were never used e Multipolar future i Germany France Britain perhaps Italy 1 3 possible future scenarios The Europe Without Nuclear Weapons Scenario a Without nuclear weapons peace more unlikely b c war not as costly i Russia Germany most likely Europe superpowers w o nuclear weapons ii Russia leader Washington Summit claimed that Russia Germany mixture from 1930 s 1 Humiliation of great power 2 Economic troubles 3 Rise of Nationalism iii Ethnic Conflicts 1 Tensions in Hungary Romania over Hungarian minority in Transylvania 2 Yugoslavia Albania dispute over Kosovo Yugo Region w Albanian majority a Bulgaria v Yugoslavia over Macedonia b Turkey v Bulgaria over treatment of its Turkish minority iv Poland Czechoslovakia border dispute b Germany v Soviet Union i Soviets defeating Germany 1 Soviet union pulled apart by centrifugal forces German victory ii Soviets Germany roughly equal strengths The Current Ownership Scenario a Britain France Soviet Union retain weapons but no new nuclear powers i Unlikely 1 Germany won t allow others to defend it 2 Small states have incentive to acquire them to protect from blackmail by superpowers The Nuclear Proliferation Scenario a Most probable scenario i Mismanaged proliferation disaster III IV V VI VII 1 Incentive to stop non nuclear neighbor from becoming nuclear a Ex Israel trying to stop Iraq b Increased risk of competition or firing by accident terrorists 2 More likely than well managed proliferation a Incentive to defect b c of insecurity b States will not share military secrets c Would undermine 1968 Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty ii Well managed proliferation order similar to Long Peace Is War Obsolete a In regards to Europe Without Nuclear Weapons Scenario i Highly optimistic unlikely ii Obsolescence of War Theory supports this 1 If cost of war seemed too great why was there a 2nd world war iii Public opinion on nat l security issues fickle manipulated by elites Is
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