IR 210 1st Edition Lecture 19 Current LectureWho are we? The answer was plainly visible on every map that depicted the two adversarial systems dividing the globe during the Cold War. But in an ever-changing world without borders, the question is intensely relevant. Identity is strongly inked with confidence, and in turn confidence, or the lack thereof, is expressed in emotions—in particular, those of fear, hope and humiliation.-Dominique Moisi- New variable all of the time: Moisi The Geopolitics of Emotion- Critical variables: fear, hope, and humiliation- All related to confidence and that shapes decision-makingPuzzle Practice:Nixon Opening Relations with China in 1972- This is low range, don’t forget to make middle range- Why a puzzle? This was during the Cold War and China was communist. Nixon was very anti-communist Republican president.Level One- Personality: need for achievement and power- Normalize relationship with an adversarial state (Operational Code)- Prospect Theory: risk accepting- Applied rationality: benefits outweigh costs- Bounded rationalityLevel Two- Economic necessity- In a bipolar system, a state is always trying to take power away from the other side, seeking defections from the other sideReturn to Level One: Personal Attributes James Barber’s presidential studies- Active or passive? Adorno’s F-Scale: Authoritarian/Fascism- Authoritarian: tendency to dominate subordinates, deference towards superiors, sensitivity to power, need for a structured world, excessive use of stereotypes, nationalistic/ethno-nationalistic, hates ambiguity Rokeach: close-minded or dogmatic personality- Unlikely to see all options, perceives conspiracies and stereotypes of the enemy in crises, reject info that contradicts their belief system, tend to use force to closesituation- Low self-esteem  hostile and uncooperative- High self-esteem  trust Tools: Perceptions/Images- Robert Jervis: work is best known research in this area- Images of the world  beliefs, stories, myths, stereotypes, misperceptions, etc…- Images change due to context- Consider how our images of the Japanese have changed since the 1940s? Russians since 1991? Arabs since 2001? New importance in world of ethnic conflict and the “clash of civilizations” We tend to reject information that challenges our core beliefs Ole Holsti (1962): study of J.F. Dulles- Mirror images/images of the enemy (applies today to terrorists)- Rigid image of USSR—evil empire, dismissed any good move as attempt to gain global supremacy- Need for US to retain military superiority—arms control overtures by USSR was always a ploy/trick- Leaders seek cognitive consistency—see a world that is consistent with their beliefs and images- Avoid or reduce cognitive dissonance, information that challenges your beliefs Images shape perceptions of individuals, states, and eventsTool: Belief Systems Belief system is critical part of one’s worldview Intellectual in/out basket Vertzberger  information processing and deciding on priority Beliefs shape ideology (Level 2) A version of belief system analysis: Operational Code- First study aimed at the operational code of the Bolsheviks (more a political group)- Studies on Dulles, Kissinger, Kennedy, Nixon, Carter, and others- We are all captives of the pictures in our head. Our belief that the world we experience I the world that really exists. (Walter Lippman) Philosophical Beliefs: view of the world of politics- Prospects that you can realize your goals?- Future predictable?- Control/mastery over world?- Role of chance? Eliminate chance, no risks, want to be prepared. Instrumental Beliefs: best approach to realize goals- Risks of action- Timing- Costs and benefits of options Analogical Reasoning: looking at similar situations or ones you think to be similar- Analogies and lessons are elements of belief systems- Provides definition of situations, policy recommendation, and predictions- Cognitive guide to be used in novel FOPO situations- Favorites of US Presidents: just like Hitler, another Vietnam (rejecting intervention), Munich-appeasementLevel Two: Domestic Factors/National Attributes- These factors help to shape the agenda, menu that leaders select from when making policy choiceso Rarely causal - Geography- Permanet Elements: generally attributes that do not change much- Tool: Size and Resource Baseo Size categoies  small, middle, great super powero Robert Pastor: only great powers matter, they make the ruleso Measures: tangible and intangible factorso Material and ideationalo Middle Powers: niche diplomacy, rule enforcers and reformers Trading states, global problem solvers: close the gap between rich and poor, respond to global commons issues Measure: defined more by role and level of activismo Small Powers: regional focus, activism in global for a, rule takers Economy shapes all FOPO Influenced more by public option and NGOs Moral position on big global issues (New Zealand, nuclear issue, puzzle)- Risk accepting?- No one holds them accountable because they are a small state- Cold war is still going ono Measure: self image limits global activism Big regional