IR 210 1st Edition Lecture 19 Current Lecture Who are we The answer was plainly visible on every map that depicted the two adversarial systems dividing the globe during the Cold War But in an ever changing world without borders the question is intensely relevant Identity is strongly inked with confidence and in turn confidence or the lack thereof is expressed in emotions in particular those of fear hope and humiliation Dominique Moisi New variable all of the time Moisi The Geopolitics of Emotion Critical variables fear hope and humiliation All related to confidence and that shapes decision making Puzzle Practice Nixon Opening Relations with China in 1972 This is low range don t forget to make middle range Why a puzzle This was during the Cold War and China was communist Nixon was very anti communist Republican president Level One Personality need for achievement and power Normalize relationship with an adversarial state Operational Code Prospect Theory risk accepting Applied rationality benefits outweigh costs Bounded rationality Level Two Economic necessity In a bipolar system a state is always trying to take power away from the other side seeking defections from the other side Return to Level One Personal Attributes James Barber s presidential studies Active or passive Adorno s F Scale Authoritarian Fascism Authoritarian tendency to dominate subordinates deference towards superiors sensitivity to power need for a structured world excessive use of stereotypes nationalistic ethno nationalistic hates ambiguity Rokeach close minded or dogmatic personality Unlikely to see all options perceives conspiracies and stereotypes of the enemy in crises reject info that contradicts their belief system tend to use force to close situation Low self esteem hostile and uncooperative High self esteem trust Tools Perceptions Images Robert Jervis work is best known research in this area Images of the world beliefs stories myths stereotypes misperceptions etc Images change due to context Consider how our images of the Japanese have changed since the 1940s Russians since 1991 Arabs since 2001 New importance in world of ethnic conflict and the clash of civilizations We tend to reject information that challenges our core beliefs Ole Holsti 1962 study of J F Dulles Mirror images images of the enemy applies today to terrorists Rigid image of USSR evil empire dismissed any good move as attempt to gain global supremacy Need for US to retain military superiority arms control overtures by USSR was always a ploy trick Leaders seek cognitive consistency see a world that is consistent with their beliefs and images Avoid or reduce cognitive dissonance information that challenges your beliefs Images shape perceptions of individuals states and events Tool Belief Systems Belief system is critical part of one s worldview Intellectual in out basket Vertzberger information processing and deciding on priority Beliefs shape ideology Level 2 A version of belief system analysis Operational Code First study aimed at the operational code of the Bolsheviks more a political group Studies on Dulles Kissinger Kennedy Nixon Carter and others We are all captives of the pictures in our head Our belief that the world we experience I the world that really exists Walter Lippman Philosophical Beliefs view of the world of politics Prospects that you can realize your goals Future predictable Control mastery over world Role of chance Eliminate chance no risks want to be prepared Instrumental Beliefs best approach to realize goals Risks of action Timing Costs and benefits of options Analogical Reasoning looking at similar situations or ones you think to be similar Analogies and lessons are elements of belief systems Provides definition of situations policy recommendation and predictions Cognitive guide to be used in novel FOPO situations Favorites of US Presidents just like Hitler another Vietnam rejecting intervention Munich appeasement Level Two Domestic Factors National Attributes These factors help to shape the agenda menu that leaders select from when making policy choices o Rarely causal Geography Permanet Elements generally attributes that do not change much Tool Size and Resource Base o Size categoies small middle great super power o Robert Pastor only great powers matter they make the rules o Measures tangible and intangible factors o Material and ideational o Middle Powers niche diplomacy rule enforcers and reformers Trading states global problem solvers close the gap between rich and poor respond to global commons issues Measure defined more by role and level of activism o Small Powers regional focus activism in global for a rule takers Economy shapes all FOPO Influenced more by public option and NGOs Moral position on big global issues New Zealand nuclear issue puzzle Risk accepting No one holds them accountable because they are a small state Cold war is still going on o Measure self image limits global activism Big regional role