IR 210 1st Edition Lecture 18 Current Lecture There is deceit and cunning and from these wars arise Confucius Level 1 analysis Individuals practice deceit and cunning 1 Insider and outsider approaches 2 Waltz s Man The State and War three images three explanations for war Reflectivists first used by Robert Keohane 1988 post positivists position rejection of rationalists positivists Accept paradigms states have sovereignty Working within paradigm Insider understanding from the perspective of someone from the inside Recognize role of historians Understanding is the goal Historians and constructivists Assume some element of subjectivity Complete story or narrative unique nature of each event issue or story Role of participants and their values norms and traditions Outsider explaining social science view objectivity middle range theories looking from the outside making generalizations All small states focus their foreign policy on economic issues Trying to explain cause of all wars Rationalists apply the positivist model of science Social scientists develop hypotheses gather evidence apply or test and confirm or reject hypotheses We know y dependent variable What happened results Malnutrition poverty Puzzle why do so many children continue to die from malnutrition persistence of any condition The search is for the x independent variable Here we find our levels of analysis If x then y US IR today is dominated by rational choice microeconomic thinking and quantitative analysis Constructivists and post positivists provide alternatives European and non US more reflectivists history descriptive case studies Next our task in the Why Did it Happen exercise Focus on the E in our DEPPP skills Explanations middle range level theories or hypotheses Trying to Explain Behavior of States Causal If X then Y X is the independent variable Y is the behavior outcome or dependent variable Relational A is related to B Contributing A is one factor that contributes to B Assignment I Find a foreign policy puzzle a Ex Why did the Bush administration reject the idea of UN sanctions and unilaterally invade Iraq Goes against Westphalian traditions Bush sr did the opposite b Change low range to middle range by rewording This causes me to wonder c Why would a state reject multilateral policies and non force options and go to war unilaterally not time culture individually bound Level One Analytical Tool Belief Systems If a leader has a realist belief system they will reject multilateral efforts in favor of unilateral policy Level Two Analytical Tool National Attributes Domestic Factors Political Structure The more powerful the defense bureaucracies the more likely a state will act unilaterally and with force look at speeches policy decisions made by leaders Level Three Analytical Tool System Level International System Level of Order In an anarchic system states secure their interest by acting unilaterally measure by international institutions regimes that govern a certain area Level Four Analytical Tool Global Factors Man made internet or natural earthquakes The more threats to states by global terrorist networks the greater the chance states will act unilaterally and with force Imagine writing a book called Man The State and Inequality Goal is to provide three view on inequality that give us different images of the problem as well as explanations Why inequality in the world Why does it persist Geographic location Strive for power and sovereignty Technological gap Structural violence Political belief system that emphasizes national interest over human interest Corrupt governments Uneven nature of globalization Individual over collective Limitation of resources Security dilemma Lack of global activism in a certain area Social norms don t recognize the need for equity Image One Pessimists and optimists about human nature Machiavelli Hobbes and Spinoza vs Kant Image Two Nature of the state politically and economically Wilson vs Lenin Lenin capitalism perpetuates war Image Three International system Anarchy vs world government All states are in constant search for security security dilemma and arms race Individual Level Most important when o o o o It is a crisis situation Small group of decision makers Decision maker has expertise and high level of interest in area New situation that needs definition few analogues Level One inside the head of decision makers what factors get in the way of rationality or influence the decision about what is rational Instinct motivations leaning personality beliefs worldviews values attitudes design and selection of policy options decision making style decision actions evaluation revision rejection and acceptance of policy I Rationality instrumental thinking Rational Choice max benefits min costs Major area of research in IR political science microeconomic thinking applied to politics Minimizes importance of culture ideology values beliefs that are seen as irrational Diversion from rationality explained by other tools II Bounded Rationality Herbert Simon In FOPO rationality not probable cannot know all options or values Goal is satisfaction not maximizing Previous experience interests intuition help to eliminate numbers of options Muddling through simplify the process Cybernetics John Steinbruner i Decision making is an adaptive process what has worked before minimize complexity III Biological Explanations Tension between reason and passion behavior is linked to biological traits Instincts aggressions sex hunger drive decision making The end of every act is the self preservation of the actor Spinoza Lorenz on aggression 1967 Aggressive behavior more dangerous in a world with push button warfare nuclear warfare Major problem for survival of world Instinct and biological explanation is at the heart of realism Reason does not overwhelm passion original sin Passion directs humans to be first amongst all Neibur Man is born seeking power and because there exists no authority over him in the international sphere the use of force and violence results Hans Morgenthau Robert Andrey the territorial imperative defense of homeland and territory IV Motivations and Personality Types Leader with a need for power seeks power positions dominate others argumentative show little humanitarian concern paranoid that others want their power take no great risks Need for affiliation seeks approval of others loyalty indecisiveness less inclined to be an empire builder due to concern for others Need for