Introduction to Comparative Politics Exam 1 Study Guide Chapter 2 1 What is the scientific method The scientific method describes the process by which scientists learn about the world 5 step process Step 1 question observe the world and come up with a question or puzzle Must be generalizable Example under what conditions will an authoritarian state transition to a democracy Step 2 theory or model A theory is a set of logically consistent statements that tell us why the things that we observe happen A theory is sometimes referred to as a model or an explanation Step 3 implications hypothesis Once you have a model the third step is to deduce implications from the model other than those that we set out to explain Good models are those that produce different implications Step 4 observe the world test hypothesis Step 5 evaluation Examine whether the implications of the model are consistent with the observations Submit the model to the harshest test possible to increase the confidence you have in the model We cannot say that our theory has been verified or proven All we can conclude if observations are consistent with our theoretical implications is that our theory has not yet been falsified Side note we can not rule out that our model will not be falsifiable the next time it is tested 2 Why is falsification important The thing that distinguishes science from non science is that scientific statements must be falsifiable Falsificationism an approach to science in which scientists generate testable hypotheses from theories designed to explain phenomena of interest It is important because it emphasizes that scientific theories are constantly called into question and that their merit lies only in how well they stand up to rigorous testing 3 What are valid arguments What are invalid arguments Arguments have to be valid to be tested o An argument is a set of logically connected statements typically in the form of a set of premises and a conclusion o A premise is a statement that is presumed to be true within the context of an argument leading to a conclusion o A conclusion in an argument is a claim that is thought to be supported by the premises If after accepting the premises we are forced to accept the conclusions the argument is valid If after accepting the premises we are free to accept or reject the conclusions the argument is invalid 4 What are the elements of a syllogism antecedent consequent major premise etc An argument can be presented in the form of a categorical syllogism that consists of a major premise a minor premise and a conclusion A major premise is typically presented as a conditional statement such as If P o The if part of the statement is called the antecedent o The then part of the statement is called the consequent then Q Table 2 2 Major premise Minor premise Conclusion General Form If P then Q P Therefore Q 5 What are the forms of valid invalid arguments denying the antecendent etc 6 What is the difference between deductive and inductive approaches Deductive approach to learning involves formulating an expectation about what we ought to observe in light of a particular theory about the world and then sets out to see if observation is consistent with that theory o Lines up better with the scientific theory o Theory hypothesis observation confirmation Inductive approach to learning starts with a set of observations that can be used to generate an explanation for the observations o Observation pattern tentative hypothesis theory 7 What are the differences between necessary and sufficient conditions What are some examples Necessary condition is a circumstance in whose absence the phenomenon Sufficient condition is a circumstance in whose presence the phenomenon in question cannot occur o Y never happens unless X happens o If Y then X or if X then no Y in question must occur o Y always happens if X happens o If X then Y or if no Y then no X 8 What are scientific statements What are some examples Scientific statements must be falsifiable This means that they are potentially testable there must be some imaginable observation that could falsify or refute them o Examples Non falsifiable strong states are able to overcome special interests in order to implement policies that are best for the nation Falsifiable smoking increases the chance of getting cancer 9 What are the myths of science First myth science proves things and leads to certain and verifiable truth Second myth science can be done only when experimental manipulation is possible Third myth that science is value neutral meaning that science is not presupposing the acceptance of any particular values Therefore scientists should be very clear about the limits of our knowledge and not encourage others to act upon knowledge that is not highly corroborated Fourth myth that politics cannot be studied in a scientific manner Chapter 3 1 What is politics subset of human behavior that involves the use of power or influence 2 What is the Exit Voice and Loyalty game What do the various options represent What are its implications You will need to know how to solve these games EVL game is a game theoretic model to understand politics and power Imagine a scenario where there has been an unexpected change in your environment ex State increases taxes Basic rule players choose to do what s in their best interest o EVL game components Game a situation in which an individual s ability to achieve her goals depends on the choices made by other actors Two actors players the citizen and the state Each player has a set of possible responses exit voice loyalty Three possible responses o Exit accept that there has been a change in your environment Alter your behavior to achieve the best outcome possible given your new environment reallocate portfolio of assets to avoid tax increase o Voice use your voice complain protest lobby take direct action to try to change the environment back to its original condition lobby or protest for the tax increase to be amended o Loyalty accept the fact that your environment has changed and make no changes to your behavior accept the tax increase and pay it o The state will be willing to respond positively to the citizen only when two conditions are met the citizen has a creditable exit threat and the state must be dependent on the citizen o If the citizen does not have a creditable exit threat then they are basically helpless and subject to the changes the state makes Implications from the EVL game o 3 How do
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