Economic Determinants of Democracy and Dictatorship Thursday February 5 2015 3 05 PM Classic Modernization Theory Modernization theory All societies develop through a series of stages We should observe a strong relationship between how economically developed a country is and whether it is a democracy Empirical Evidence Dependent Variable the thing we want to explain The probability that a country becomes a democracy given that it was a dictatorship in the previous year Outcome Independent Variables the things we think explain or determine the value of the independent variable Explanatory Oil produces economic growth Statistical Coefficients Characterizes the relationship between the two variables Can be positive or negative A positive coefficient indicates that the variable increases the probability that a democracy will emerge A negative coefficient indicates that the variable decreases the probability that a democracy will emerge Indicates of statistical significance and signals the relationship does NOT appear to be random The standard errors characterize the distribution of the data around to the estimated coefficient If the data is tightly clustered around the slope of the line the result is a very small standard error We would be relatively confident in our statistical coefficient No stars in your table means you cant say anything about the relationship between X and Y The more stars you see the higher the data is clustered around the correlation The stars tell us whether or not we should be confident about the relationship we re observing in the coefficients Examples No stars in your table means you cant say anything about the relationship between X and Y The more stars you see the higher the data is clustered around the correlation The stars tell us whether or not we should be confident about the relationship we re observing in the coefficients Examples GDP per capita Has a positive coefficient and is considered statistically significant data STARS Growth in GDP per capita Negative coefficient and is considered statistically significant data STARS Oil Production Negative coefficient and is considered statistically significant data STARS Y Axis Dependent X Axis Independent Classic Modernization Theory Correlation is NOT causation The data is consistent with two different stories linking income and democracy Modernization Theory Positive relationship between income and democracy countries are more likely to become and remain democratic as they become richer Survival Story Countries are more likely to remain democratic countries with large economies are more stable but development does NOT make democracy more likely to emerge Ex China Saudi Arabia No democracy collapsed so long as it had a per capita income higher than that of Argentina in 1975 6 055 This was simply a pattern in the data an empirical observation Wealth has no effect on likelihood of democratizing but does make countries less likely to fall into a dictatorship Both say Democracy is more common in rich countries than poor countries Transition to dictatorship becomes less likely as income increases Different hypotheses allow us to distinguish theories A Variant of Modernization Theory A variant of modernization theory posits that changes in socioeconomic structure spur democratization increases Different hypotheses allow us to distinguish theories A Variant of Modernization Theory A variant of modernization theory posits that changes in socioeconomic structure spur democratization
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