Comparative Government 2002 Dr Reenock Comparative Politics study of politics predominantly within countries Economic Determinants of Democracy Democracy is unlikely to rise in countries whose economies are dependent on natural resource extraction especially extraction that is capital intensive and has huge economies of scale i e oil Pg 10 The social world functions in a probabilistic manner Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Falsifiable an imaginable observation or set of observations that could falsify or refute a scientific statement Tautology statement that is true by definition Uniformity of Nature the assumption that if X causes Y today it will do so tomorrow and the next day so on so forth Gravity causes a penny to drop to the floor when thrown in the air It will do so again tomorrow Fertile Models models with many implications Critical Test allows analyst to use observation to distinguish between two or more competing explanations of the same phenomenon Similar to a comparison of two competing models Scientific Method 1 Question Ask why 2 Theory or Model A set of logically consistent statements that tell us why the things that we observe occur A falsifiable statement that can be tested Implications Hypotheses Implications are deducted from a theory or model They are being tested in addition to the main point that we set out to explain 3 4 Observe the World Test Hypotheses Examine whether the implications of the model are consistent with observation Go out and test them 5 Evaluation If we observe the implications deduced from our theory we say the theory has been corroborated Theories cannot be verified or proven A theory that has been put through a small number of harsh tests is more valuable than a theory that has undergone many easy tests Logic and Arguments Argument a set of logically connected statements typically in the form of a set of premises and a conclusion Premise a statement that is presumed to be true within the context of an argument leading to a conclusion Conclusion a claim that is thought to be supported by the premises A valid argument is if you accept the premises you are compelled to accept An invalid argument is if you accept the premises but are free to accept or the conclusion reject the conclusion Categorical Syllogism specific type of argument that consists of a major premise a minor premise and a conclusion Antecedent The if part of a conditional statement P Consequent The then part of a conditional statement Q If P then Q Major Premise the whole statement If P then Q Minor Premise the first portion if P Conclusion the final portion then Q Ex If a country is wealthy then it will be a democracy Major Premise If a country is wealthy then it will be a democracy Minor Premise If a country is wealthy Conclusion The country will be a democracy Four types of arguments can be represented with a syllogism Affirm deny the antecedent Affirm deny the consequent 1 Affirm the Antecedent Valid 2 Deny the Antecedent Invalid 3 Affirm the Consequent Invalid 4 Deny the Consequent Valid P Q Affirming the Antecedent If it is in P then it is in Q Valid Denying the Antecedent If it is not in P then it cant be in Q Invalid Affirming the Consequent If it is in Q then it has to be in P Invalid Denying the Consequent If it is not in Q then it is not in P Valid Testing Theories Falsificationism approach to science in which scientists generate testable hypothesis from theories designed to explain phenomena Emphasizes that theories are called into question and must stand up to rigorous testing Deductive approach to learning identifying a phenomenon of interest creating a theory and going out to test it Inductive approach to learning reviewing data that has already been collected and attempting to formulate an explanation for it Science is based off of deductive learning The problem with the inductive approach is that it assumes observations precede theory which means the theory used in collecting those observations was not subjected to falsification Science is a method for provisionally understanding the world The Comparative Method Comparative Method Mill s Method search for the necessary and sufficient causes of political phenomena Comprises the method of agreement and the method of difference Necessary Condition a circumstance in whose absence the phenomenon in question cannot occur The phenomena cannot occur without this condition period E x Y never happens unless X happens If Y then X or if no X then no Y Sufficient Condition a circumstance in whose presence the phenomenon in question must occur This variable has to be present for the phenomena to occur if it occurs without this variable the variable is not sufficient E x Y always happens if X happens If X then Y or if no Y then no X Summary of Findings Country Democracy Wealth Ethnically homogeneous Multiparty Parliamentary system system Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Belgium UK US Mexico prior to 1990 Yes No Yes Yes No Yes No No Yes Yes No No Inferences 1 Wealth is not a sufficient condition for democracy It may be necessary 2 Ethnic homogeneity is neither necessary nor sufficient for democracy 3 A multiparty system is not necessary for democracy It may be sufficient 4 A parliamentary system is not necessary for democracy It may be sufficient Chapter 3 Politics is the subset of human behavior that involves the use of power or influence Exit Voice and Loyalty Exit You accept that there has been a negative change in your environment and you alter your behavior to achieve the best outcome possible given your new environment You accept you cant change the action you leave Voice You use your Voice complain lobby protest to try and change the action imposed Voice requires influence Loyalty You accept the new action imposed and stay Game Theory a fundamental tool for analyzing strategic situations Strategic Situations the choices of one actor depend on the choices made by other actors Game a situation in which an individuals ability to achieve their goal is dependent upon the choices made by someone else Games have rules about how the decisions are made The basic rule is that players choose to do what they believe is in their best interest Payoff the value or reward of each action Extensive form games players take turns to make decisions E V L game Normal or Strategic form game players make their choices simultaneously Prisoners Dilemma Game tree the entire specification of choice nodes and branches that comprise an entire extensive form
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