CPO2002 Introduction to Comparative Politics Mill s methods of Agreement and Difference Method of Agreement compares cases that agree in regard to the outcome to be explained If two or more instances of the phenomenon under investigation have only one circumstance in common the circumstance in which alone all the instances agree is the cause or effect of the given phenomenon For a property to be a necessary condition it must always be present if the effect is present Since this is so then we are interested in looking at cases where the effect is present and taking note of which properties among those considered to be possible necessary conditions are present and which are absent Obviously any properties which are absent when the effect is present cannot be necessary conditions for the effect Symbolically the method of agreement can be represented as A B C D occur together with w x y z A E F G occur together with w t u v Therefore A is the cause of w Method of Difference compares cases that differ in regard to the outcome to be explained If an instance in which the phenomenon under investigation occurs and an instance in which it does not occur have every circumstance in common save one that one occurring only in the former the circumstance in which alone the two instances differ is the effect or the cause or an indispensable part of the cause of the phenomenon A B C D occur together with w x y z B C D occur together with x y z Therefore A is the cause or the effect or a part of the cause of w Necessary and sufficient conditions Necessary condition Is a circumstance in whose absence the event in question cannot occur o Y never happens unless X happens If Y then X or if no X then no Y o Ex Oxygen is a necessary condition for fire Take oxygen away and there will be no fore but add oxygen to a given situation and there may or may not be fire depending on other circumstances o EXAM TRICK If a question is phrased like A country cannot avoid civil war unless IT ALLOWS MINORITIES TO PARTICIPATE IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS caps bold at the end It will be a necessary condition Remember with these questions you are not required to evaluate the truths of the argument no background knowledge on factors of a specific political process etc Cause CN Present Effect E Present Sufficient Condition a circumstance in whose presence the event in question must occur o Y always happens if X happens If X then Y if no Y then no X o EXAM TRICK IF a question is phrased like If a CONUTRY HAS A STROG MILITARY then it will win the war caps bold in the front It will be a sufficient condition Effect E Present Cause Cs Present o Statements that are potentially testable there must be some imaginable observation Scientific falsifiable statements hypotheses Scientific falsifiable statements that could falsify or refute it o Ex The sun revolves around the earth You can observe this to prove its validity Non falsifiable statements o Tautologies Strong states are able to implement policies o Statements about unobservable phenomena Aliens exist or The flying spaghetti monster created the world are claims that cannot be falsified and therefore are not scientific o This does NOT mean that non science is nonsense or that these claims are necessarily fasle o Valid and invalid arguments Affirming the Antecedent o If P then Q P Therefore Q THESE ARGUMENTS ARE VALID Specific Form o If the country is wealthy then it will be a democracy The country is wealthy Therefore the country will be a democracy Denying the Antecedent o If P then Q Not P Therefore not Q THESE ARGUMENTS ARE IVALID Specific Form o If the country is wealthy then it will be a democracy The country is not wealthy Therefore the country is not a democracy Affirming the Consequent o If P then Q Q Therefore P THESE ARGUMENTS ARE IVALID Specific Form o If the country is wealthy then it will be a democracy The country is a democracy Therefore the country is wealthy Denying the Consequent o If P then Q Not Q Therefore not P THESE AREGUMENTS ARE VALID Specific Form o If the country is wealthy then it will be a democracy The country is not a democracy Therefore the country is not wealthy Strategic and extensive game what these games are and when they are used Solving both extensive form chapter 3 and strategic form chapter 4 games The implications of the EVL game for the power relationship between a citizen and the state A game is a situation where an individual s ability to achieve his goals depends on the choices made by other actors A Nash equilibrium is a set of strategies one for each player such that no player has an incentive to unilaterally switch to another strategy Strategic game o Players make their choices simultaneously Citizens have 3 choices o Exit o Voice o Loyalty Accept that there has been a negative change in your environment and alter your behavior to optimize in the new environment Use your voice complain protest lobby take direct action to try and change the environment back to its original condition Accept the fact that your environment has changed and make no changes to your behavior Sates have 2 choices o Respond o Ignore Outcome Description Citizen State O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 State keeps benefit of new situation citizen opts for some substitute State keeps benefit of new situation citizen suffers loss State returns benefit to citizen State keeps benefit citizen suffers loss State keeps benefit but loses support of citizen citizen opts for some substitute E 0 1 C 0 C E C 1 L 1 1 L 1 L Backward induction involves starting at the end of the game and reasoning backwards o What would the other player do if I chose X What would they do if I chose Y How to write down the equilibria o Equilibrium in scenario 1 is Voice Exit Respond o Citizen s 1st action Citizen s 2nd action State s 1st action Outcome Description Player A Player B State is only willing to back down under two conditions o The citizen must have a credible exit threat o The state must be dependent on the citizen An autonomous state never backs down Extensive Game o Players make their choices sequentially Players have two choices o Steal o Forbear O1 O2 O3 O4 Player A steals Player B forbears Player A steals Player B steals Player A forbears Player B forbears Player A forbears Player B steals 4 2 3 1 1 2 3 4 Any square in which both numbers are underlined is a Nash equilibrium o Both players are playing best responses in these situations o The creation of the state helps to solve political disputes
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