Exam 1 Review 1 Knowledge is gained through theory development and the scientific method Scientists study phenomena and attempt to create causal theories that are then tested through the scientific method Once tested the scientific community will challenge these theories and attempt to find errors or conflicts in the work The process starts with a casual theory then develops into a hypothesis undergoes empirical testing as a hypothesis undergoes evaluation as a hypothesis transforms into a causal theory which undergoes evaluation by the community and then becomes scientific knowledge 2 Political scientists attempt to explain phenomena by developing and testing theories Descriptive inference utilizes observations and measurements from the world to draw conclusions about unobserved facts Causal inference uses observations from the world to create theories that understand the causes of the observations Political scientists are interested in causal inference because it explains the how and why a phenomenon occurs 3 The social world of human interactions is probabilistic meaning that associations are probabilistic instead of certain I E An increase in X is associated with an increase in the probability of Y occurring probable but not absolutely certain The distinction is critical due to the importance it plays in constructing theories Theory must be established in a probabilistic manner that is capable of accounting for small exceptions We also have to take into account that the world is multivariate therefore theories cannot possibly accommodate every variable 4 Variables can be described as ideas concepts or values that scientists attempt to account for in a study Variable features consist of labels and values Variable labels are a description of what the variable is Variable values are the denominations in which a variable occurs 5 The independent variables are the variables in theory that are originally thought to cause the dependent variable The dependent variable depends on the independent variable and changes with the independent variable The independent variable seeks to explain the cause of why the dependent variable is occurring 6 Antecedent variables are variables that occur at an earlier temporal point before the independent and dependent variable Antecedent variables can be used to help explain the consequences between the independent and dependent variables Intervening variables occur between the reaction of the independent and dependent variable A Antecedent Independent Dependent Independent Intervening Dependent I 7 The unit of analysis in a theory or experiment is the entity in which you are analyzing and attempting to explain 8 Covariation is the term used for describing variables that vary together For example variable A increases while variable B also increases Or variable A increases but variable B decreases However because the variables fluctuate does not mean that there is actual causality between them The book states exactly It is easy to assume that when we observe covariation we are also observing causality but it is important not to fall into this trap pg 17 Being able to differentiate between covariation and causality is important for science and theory building because there has to be an identifiable cause that can be explained from a theory 9 A theory is a tentative conjecture about the causes of some phenomenon of interest pg 21 Scientists create theories when they wish to explain or study certain phenomena Theories are evaluated through the scientific method by the original author and then are reviewed by the community to see if they can become falsified 10 Induction is when empirical information is analyzed and then a theory is created Deduction is when a theory is crafted before the empirics are gathered and is then tested by the empirical data 11 Falsification is testing a theory and finding out it fails If a theory is passed through tests and remains true the null hypothesis is falsified Falsification is apart of the process a theory undergoes when reviewed by the community Without falsification there would be confusion as to which theories work and remain true 12 A hypothesis is a testable theory based statement that attempts to measure the relationship between independent and dependent variables Hypotheses are operationalized from theories and undergo the testing of the scientific method Hypotheses are important for science due to the fact that if a hypothesis survives rigorous testing it gives the author confidence in their theory which in turn may become scientific knowledge 13 The scientific method is the process of crafting a causal theory establishing a hypothesis performing empirical testing evaluating a hypothesis evaluating a causal theory and then publishing the work for scientific review The scientific method gives the science community a review process in which to craft ideas and then to test them empirically Once scientists are able to understand theories they can analyze and possibly predict data 14 Variation occurs over the dimensions of temporal time and spatial units measurements 15 Cross sectional studies are performed when a measurement is needed for the spatial dimension of a study In a cross sectional study the time period is kept the same throughout the study while the dependent variable is measured for multiple spatial units pg 27 In a time series study the spatial unit is kept the same while the temporal unit is measured across multiple points in time E x Time Series Dow Jones measured across January April September December E x Cross Sectional Military Spending in 2005 for U S Germany U K 16 Formal theory is the application of game theory and other formal mathematical tools to puzzles of human behavior pg 47 The common assumptions associated with formal theory are that all individuals are rational utility maximizers maximizing self interest Scientists then assume that individuals have preferences for the different types of choices available to the individual After calculating the preferences deductions are made to come up with theoretical expectations 17 The social world is multivariate in the sense that dependent variables are caused by more than one factor It is important to understand that theories are bivariate and therefore cannot take into account the multiple variables that may be causing a dependent variable 18 Correlation can be a component of causality but it does not always indicate causality A causal
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