POLI SCI 106 1st Edition Lecture 4 Outline of Last Lecture 1. What is Democracy?2. Key Elements 3. Democratic System4. Recognizing a Democracy5. Ideal Types6. Democracy - A Process7. Democracy - The Outcomes8. Critiques of 3 ModelsOutline of Current Lecture - The Scientific Method1. Two Cornerstones of Comparative Politics2. The Scientific Method3. Basis of Explanation: Theory4. Key Characteristics of a Theory5. Research Design6. Variables7. Correlation Between Variables8. Correlation vs. Causation9. Spurious Correlation10. Quick Review11. ExperimentsCurrent LectureThe Scientific MethodTwo Cornerstones of Comparative Politics - - comparison - learning and understanding by comparing 2+ cases- scientific method - employs set of rules and methods for investigating reality logically and systematicallyThe Scientific Method - - Key Elements-Definition: all about precision and consistency-Description: must know what we can about our subject before we can analyze itThese notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.-Explanation: answering "why," "how," "who," "when," etc. questionsBasis of Explanation: Theory - - Theory - preposition re: how we think the world works- makes (set of) generalizations that week to explain real world phenomenon- evaluate the applicability of theories by examining if they can account for what we observe in the real world-we can dismiss theories that not to hold and... "through a continuous process of elimination we approximate the truth..."Key Characteristics of a Theory - - theories are never "right"- building theory = process of continuous scrutiny, re-evaluation, and adaptation- some theories are widely or almost universally accepted- theories must be falsifiable - must be capable of being proven wrong-ex. of non-falsifiability: "Little green men live among us in hiding."Research Design - - Empirical analysis - -systematic analysis of data-does not make value judgments, not normative-objective: find cause and effect relationships between 2+ variables-change in the variable causes change in another variable in a predictable way-variable - can differ in amount/conditionExamples of Variables - - Why do people vote Republican?-possible factors: education, race, religiosity, and income-vote choice: democrat, republican, other-education: no education, high education-race: Hispanic, Caucasian, etc.-religiosity: not religious, very religious-income: no income, high incomeTypes of Variables - - Dependent Variable (DV) - -what we are interested in explaining, the object of our study-the variable we expect to be affected by other variables-the variable whose value changes- Independent Variable (IV) - -the factor that influences or causes the dependent variable to vary-when only one IV: univariate analysis-when >2 IVs: multivariate analysis- Intervening Variable (IVV) - -located "between" IV and DV -the IV affects the IVV, which in turn affects the DV-Ex. income (IV) - education (IVV) - probability of voting (DV)Correlation Between Variables -- correlation - change in value of IV associated with change in value of DV- positive correlation - IV and DV vary in the same direction-IV value increases, DV value increases-IV value decreases, DV value decreases- negative correlation - IV and DV vary in opposite direction-IV value increases, DV value decreases-IV value decreases, DV value increasesCorrelation vs. Causation - - correlations necessary to establish causality-correlations are not causationsSpurious Correlation - - observation: positive correction between ice cream consumption and number of shark attacks- driven by a 3rd variable - summer time- easy to draw wrong conclusionsQuick Review - - political scientists engage in "empirical analysis"- identify cause and effect relationships- 3 types of variables: IV, DV, IVV- correlation does not mean explanation- correlation does not mean causality- correlations may be spurious- correlations are necessary to demonstrate causality- theory - preposition on how we think the world works -theory = generalization that seeks to explain relationships between variables-it is the theory that helps us to tell a causal story-the theory specifies the direction of the "causal arrow" when we observe a correlationExperiments -- different options- lab experiment- survey experiment- natural