POLI SCI 106 1st Edition Lecture 22 Outline of Last Lecture 1. 19492. East-Europe, Soviet Bloc, CMEA3. Future of ChinaOutline of Current Lecture 1. 2006 Election in Mexico2. Incumbency Advantage3. Clientelism4. Interest Representation5. Electoral Fraud6. Why Elections, Parties, Legislatures?7. Beatriz Magaloni: Voting for Autocracy (2006)8. Jennifer Gandhi: Political Institutions Under Dictatorship (2008)9. Political Institutions Under Dictatorship10. The Wind of ChangeCurrent Lecture - Mexico I2006 Election in Mexico:- Bush vs. Gore, 2000?- No... Calderon vs. Lopez Obrador, 2006-Felipe Calderon = candidate of the Partido Accion National (PAN)- neither members of PRI- for >60 years: PRI continuously in power- power built on patronage and clientelism- over past 20 years: remarkable transformation- then: electoral manipulation condoned by leaders, cynically accepted by public- now: govt. respect of voters' preferences expected and demanded- single party held on to power for so longIncumbency Advantage:- PRI rule = highly efficient and stable- displays key features of democratic system but...- in practice much different from what's on paper- impossible for opposition to gain officeThese notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.-best pre-1988 presidential election result for an outsider: 16%- PRI advantages --access to govt. funds, for example, presidential slush fund-support of big business-vast clientelistic networks- new president every 6 years, president was always a representative of the PRIClientelism:- clientelistic networks critical component of PRI's rule- clientelism: system based on patron-client relationships-patron provides client with benefits (material goods, public services, etc...)-in exchange for support (esp. at election time)- most pervasive when no alternative providers of goods and services- often: clients = poor, lowly educated, rural populations-need resources, removed from alternative providers- but not always-ex. wealthy clients give money in exchange for favorable polices- clientelism = crucial link between PRI and core supporters-local party bosses delivered benefits in return for support- today: some strong patron-client relationships still in place in local and regional politics-PRI continues to rely on its rural supporters-but also: PAN copies PRI tactics in some places- overall, clientelism much less important -clients have become citizensInterest Representation:- structures of interest representation-labor unions, employer associations, etc.- served not to ensure participation, but to...-limit citizens' demands-mobilize regime support-legitimate regime-support patron-client relationships- interest groups provide mechanism for patronage - benefits available only through the right patrons- also: compartmentalization into discrete, non-interacting segments- not competition between social classes, but within- result: groups with similar interests and demands compete with each other, not challenge the regime- demands can be dealt with on case-by-case, localized fashion- last resort = targeted repression = mostly unnecessary (but available if need be)Electoral Fraud:- variety of techniques-stuffing ballot boxes-disqualifying opposition party poll watchers-relocating polling places-manipulating voter representation lists-organized shuttling of PRI supports to vote more than once-buying off opposition voters- also: PRI controls electoral institutions- result: "Soviet style" precints, 98-100% PRI supportWhy Elections, Parties, Legislatures?:- PRI allowed and encouraged active participation of opposition parties-why elections, parties, legislatures in non-democratic regimes?-common explanation: appearance of democratic legitimacyBeatriz Magaloni: Voting for Autocracy (2006):- highlights 4 roles of elections in autocracies- 1. Provide regularized method for power sharing among elites.-power is shared without single individual grabbing it all-limits internal discontent-regular elections and term limits make power sharing credible and effective-elites from different PRI factions have vested interest in regime survival-system provides for orderly succession (a key challenge to stability and survival of autocracies)- 2. Elections signal strength of regime.-discourage potential challengers-avoid internal divisions-image of invincibility based on popular support-electoral fraud not enough to convince insiders of the regime's power- 3. Elections provide information about regime supporters and opponents. -challenge for dictators: what do people think of him?-one way to find out: hold elections, encourage opponents to participate-also plays into system of clientelism (who to reward, who to punish)-gives clients a vested interest in survival of regime- Elections are means to co-opt the opposition.-co-optation: neutralizing or winning over the opposition by assimilating it into the system-opponents invest in existing autocratic institutions...-instead of challenging regime by violent means-elections also serve to divide the oppositionJennifer Gandhi: Political Institutions Under Dictatorship (2008):- makes a similar argument based on idea of co-optation- focus: elections, legislatures, parties- autocrats need...-to avoid rebellion-basic level of cooperation- limited, targeted concessions and compromisesPolitical Institutions Under Dictatorship:- nominally democratic institutions = arenas for regime and opposition to...-make preferences and demands known-forge agreements- for opposition: institutionalized channel to affect decision-making- for regime: means to contain opposition demands, respond without appearing weakThe Wind of Change:- economic crises (1976-77, 82-92, 94-96) among catalysts for change (see readings)- political change takes place "under veil of governmental continuity" (Schedler 2000)-transition = characterized by striking absences of...-political collapse-foundational elections-big pacts-constitutional assembly- in run-up to 2000 presidential election: President Zedillo renounces "debazo" (privilege that president pick his successor)- 1988: PRI probably lost election- 200 presidential election --PAN candidate Vicente Fox defeats PRI-loss of govt. control also means loss of patronage resources that kept PRI in power for >60