012 3 4 1 0 56 1 7 81 96 1 5 7 4 6 11 3 4 1 0 81 1 3 About the Advisory Committee for Environmental Research and Education In 2000 the National Science Foundation NSF established the Advisory Committee for Environmental Research and Education AC ERE under the Federal Advisory Committee Act FACA to Provide advice recommendations and oversight concerning support for the NSF s environmental research and education portfolio Be a base of contact with the scientific community to inform NSF of the impact of its research support and NSF wide policies on the scientific community Serve as a forum for consideration of interdisciplinary environmental topics as well as environmental activities in a wide range of disciplines Provide broad input into long range plans and partnership opportunities Perform oversight of program management overall program balance and other aspects of program performance for environmental research and education activities The AC ERE has a particular interest in those aspects of environmental science engineering and education that affect multiple disciplines Each of the directorates and major offices of NSF has an advisory committee that provides guidance on the disciplinary activities within that directorate The AC ERE includes scientists from many disciplines including a member from each of the other NSF advisory committees and focuses on coordination integration and management of environmental programs across the Foundation AC ERE interests include environmental education digital libraries and cyberinfrastructure as well as interdisciplinary programs centers and major instrumentation Additional information can be found at http www nsf gov geo ere ereweb advisory cfm Transitions and Tipping Points in Complex Environmental Systems JUPITER Prologue Deterring Unprecedented Social Upheaval Now is The Time to Act 2 Executive Summary 4 Recommendations 9 A Call for Action 12 Environmental Challenges 13 Interdisciplinary Opportunities 15 Earth Our Planet As We Know Knew It 17 SIDEBAR Dust Oceanic Phytoplankton and Climate Change 17 The Rapid Progression of Our Environmental Challenge A World without Recent Parallel 18 SIDEBAR A Disappearing Sea A Place Blighted 19 Research Priorities 22 New Strategies for a New Era 23 Thinking About the Whole Not Just the Pieces 24 Tragedy of the Commons Becomes Collective Wisdom if Choices are Enforced 26 SIDEBAR Apalachicola Chattahoochee Flint Drainage Basin 27 Tipping Points in Complex Environmental Systems 28 SIDEBAR From the Corn Belt to the Gulf of Mexico s Dead Zone 29 Promoting Integrated Science and Engineering to Tackle Environmental Challenges 31 SIDEBAR Bluer than Blue Tipping Point for Glacier Melt 32 SIDEBAR Changing States Social System Resilience and Recovery 33 Networks for Environmental Research 36 SIDEBAR A History of Change in Coupled Natural Human Systems 39 Environmental Literacy 40 Moving Beyond Changing Light Bulbs 41 An Environmental Literacy Framework Learning What We Need to Learn 41 Formal Environmental Education 42 Informal Environmental Education 44 Engaging the Citizen Scientist in Environmental Research 46 SIDEBAR Environmental Decision Making in a World of Uncertainty 49 Epilogue 50 Glossary 53 MIKE USHER NSF Acknowledgments 54 Transitions and Tipping Points in Complex Environmental Systems 1 PROLOGUE Deterring Unprecedented Social Upheaval Now is The Time to Act 2 S NOAA hishmaref is a village five miles from the Alaskan mainland on Sarichef Island in the Chukchi Sea Global warming has resulted in less ice in the Chukchi Sea ice that provides natural protection to the island s coastal shores against powerful storm surges While the coastlines are eroding faster the land underneath the village is falling into the voids caused by melting permafrost Shishmaref is sinking Sarichef s coastline is receding at up to three meters annually and barricades have failed to keep the ocean at bay Buildings and roads have been lost to erosion and basic infrastructure is being compromised Winter ice on the Chukchi Sea is softer and less stable affecting ocean travel and impacting the indigenous Inupiaq people s traditional hunting and fishing activities jeopardizing both their safety and food supply The village s very existence physical and cultural is at risk JUPITER Shishmaref is both outpost offering haven to explorers and seafarers for centuries and frontrunner as one of those places most affected by climate change The increasing risk to property and lives has forced the community to consider abandoning their island and begin planning to move their village to the mainland Even if they can find a suitable location and raise the estimated 180M to finance the move the cultural and social integrity of the community will be intimately affected The Inupiaq describe their fate as a harbinger for the rest of the world Transitions and Tipping Points in Complex Environmental Systems The vast region encompassed by Alaska is on the front lines of climate change experiencing a rise in average winter temperatures of more than four degrees Celsius in the last 60 years and potentially another five to nine degrees by the end of this century The state s arctic and subarctic ecosystems already are transforming from what Americans recognize as The Last Frontier state Spruce bark beetles have responded to changing ecological conditions by infesting the forests wiping out millions of hectares of spruce trees on the Kenai Peninsula in the past two decades the largest loss ever recorded in North America caused by this beetle In today s warmer drier weather Alaska is suffering its most destructive fire seasons claiming millions of hectares of forest and the trend is clearly showing increased frequency with each passing year Freshwater bodies throughout Alaska are evaporating or draining at unprecedented magnitudes changing the landscape MICHELLE KELLEHER NSF The people of Alaska will respond to these environmental challenges in ways that may alter their culture and economy But there is no clear roadmap of consequences to serve as guide for the choices they face choices we will all eventually face They are decisions made by people everywhere individually and collectively decisions motivated by incentives and rewards that are local and short term that in aggregate cause environmental changes that are global and long term 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 T HE ADVISORY COMMITTEE for Environmental Research and Education advises NSF on its support for
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