Slide 1Chapter IntroductionDeductive ReasoningDeductive ReasoningDeductive ReasoningDeductive ReasoningDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingDecision MakingCognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Cognition, 8eChapter 12Deductive Reasoning and Decision MakingCognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Chapter Introductiondual-process theoryType 1 processing—fast and automaticType 2 processing—slow and controlledApplies to both deductive reasoning and decision making.Cognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Deductive ReasoningThe Confirmation BiasAre human beings rational?The Standard Wason Selection TaskDemonstration 12.2: The Confirmation Bias—Wason's Selection TaskCognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Deductive ReasoningThe Confirmation BiasThe Standard Wason Selection Taskconfirmation bias•People tend to try to confirm or support a hypothesis rather than try to disprove it.•In other words, people are eager to affirm the antecedent, but reluctant to deny the consequent by searching for counterexamples.Cognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Deductive ReasoningThe Confirmation BiasConcrete Versions of the Wason Selection Taskreplace numbers and letters with concrete situations from everyday lifePeople perform much better when the task is concrete, familiar, and realistic.Griggs and Cox (1982)—drinking age examplePerformance improved when task implies a social contract.Cognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Deductive ReasoningThe Confirmation BiasApplications in MedicinePeople seek confirming evidence when self-diagnosing disorders (e.g., insomnia).Both medical students and psychiatrists tend to select information consistent with their original diagnosis rather than investigate information that might be consistent with another diagnosis.Cognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Decision MakingKahneman and Tversky•proposed that a small number of heuristics guide human decision making•The same strategies that normally guide us toward the correct decision may sometimes lead us astray.Cognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Decision MakingThe Representativeness HeuristiccoincidencesrandomnessrepresentativeCognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Decision MakingThe Representativeness Heuristicrepresentativeness heuristic•People judge that a sample is likely if it is similar to the population from which the sample was selected.•People believe that random-looking outcomes are more likely than orderly outcomes.•This heuristic is so persuasive that people often ignore important statistical information that they should consider.Cognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Decision MakingThe Representativeness HeuristicSample Size and Representativenesshospital babies exampleA large sample is statistically more likely than a small sample to reflect the true proportions in a population.small-sample fallacy—assume a small sample will be representative of the population from which it was selectedstereotypesCognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Decision MakingThe Representativeness HeuristicBase Rate and RepresentativenessDemonstration 12.3: Base Rates and Representativeness—Tom Wbase rate—how often an item occurs in the populationbase-rate fallacy—emphasize representativeness and underemphasize important information about base ratesCognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Decision MakingThe Representativeness HeuristicThe Conjunction Fallacy and RepresentativenessDemonstration 12.4: Tversky and Kahneman•"Linda is a bank teller and a feminist."•students with different levels of statistical sophistication•rank statements in terms of probabilityCognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Decision MakingThe Representativeness HeuristicThe Conjunction Fallacy and Representativenessconjunction rule—The probability of the conjunction of two events cannot be larger than the probability of either of its constituent events.conjunction fallacy—when people judge the probability of the conjunction of two events to be greater than the probability of a constituent eventCognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Decision MakingThe Availability Heuristicavailability heuristic—estimate frequency or probability in terms of how easy it is to think of relevant examplesonly accurate when availability is correlated with true, objective frequencycan be distorted by recency and familiarityCognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Decision MakingThe Availability HeuristicComparison of Representativeness and Availability Heuristics1. If the problem is based on a judgment about si milarity, you are dealing with the representativeness heuristic.2. If the problem requires you to remember examples, you are dealing with the availability heuristic.Cognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Decision MakingThe Availability HeuristicRecency and Availability•Memory is better for more recent items.•Recent items are more available.•People judge recent items to be more likely than they really are.Cognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Decision MakingThe Availability HeuristicRecency and AvailabilityMacLeod and Campbell (1992)•When people were encouraged to recall pleasant events from their past, they later judge pleasant events to be more likely in their future.•When people were encouraged to recall unpleasant events, they later judged unpleasant events to be more likely.•implications for psychotherapyCognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Decision MakingThe Availability HeuristicFamiliarity and AvailabilityBrown and colleaguespopulation estimates for various countriespoints of view shown by the mediaPeople need to use critical thinking and shift to Type 2 processing.Cognition, 8e by Margaret W. Matlin Chapter 12Decision MakingThe Availability HeuristicThe Recognition HeuristicWhen comparing the relative