Chapter 14 Challenges to the global order What was the postwar order Evolved from the us led order during the cold war Security guarantees among western states i e Nato Economic institutions among the same Bretton woods institutions us in the driver s seat but not because everyone loved it Pillars Sovereignty Collective security The Bretton woods system Human rights What is was the global order Western postwar order goes global at end of cold war New security guarantees Kuwait Persian Gulf Somalia Bosnia R2P Washington consensus on economic liberalization Expansion of democracy Multilateralism expanded as a constraint on the US Is the global order still running in the way described in our book Security guarantees Economic liberalization Expansion of democracy What challenges a global order in theory Changes in interests and or capabilities change actors strategies Actors new strategies change interactions among states States adapt by creating new institutions These would be the order What threatens the order today according to the book which came out in 2021 WMD Proliferation New users and increased stocks Chinas rise Globalization If following certain pathways And backlash to globalization Behind all of these Divestment from institutions Weapons of mass destruction Increased availability of WMD Wmds are becoming cheaper and more accessible Increase risj and limits strategic options for the us Proliferation is both horizontal and vertical more countries and vertical more bombs per country Some people saw wmd includes cyber The effect of wmds Do wmd encourage peace not war Maybe if u believe in the promise of mutually assured destruction MAD What does mad require Secure strike capability Leaders rationally choose not to attack motivated by their own survival We can determine where the attack came from to target counterattack Why might mad not work outside the cold war Concerns with nuclear proliferation Creates shifts in power balance regional stability e g Iran Spread to unstable states and non state actors Failure to meet mad conditions irrationality and lack of second strike capability Accidents Proliferation risk IRAN NPT Nuclear threshold state pursuing uranium enrichment despite having signed 2015 reached a deal with the p5 germany to decrease enrichment capacity leu stockpiles and zero out MEU stockpiles in exchange for sanctions relief 2018 us pulls out of deal Iran continues to abide by terms until 2019 2025 Iran back o verge if breakout new negotiations started Us Israel bombing considered Iran s nuclear program to oblivion trump 2026 Bombing has not targeted nuclear sites Some discussion about retrieving nuclear material but OOF Proliferation risk US Allies Germany wants someone to watch its back Us has dealt with this for decades by leaning in Japan Taiwan others may be interested Alternatives to MAD Preventing the spread of WMD Changing the actor s incentive so that not pursuing weapons is the best option Prevent the actor from getting the necessary technology and material How do you do that Nuclear umbrella who would u trust Global treaties NPT widely successful and known for its failures Coercive disarmament Osirak Fordow The rise of China the rules Politically Diplomatically Economically Chinas growing power not just military may allow it to challenge the us led order Powerful countries write the rules increasingly powerful countries seek to change Key question is whether China will choose to live within the rules of the pax americana or prefer a different set of rules Stronger economy led to military modernization More engaged to project power globally China vs us military capabilities Matching the us doesn t mean going pound for pound in every category Military power is hard to measure see Prof Souva but however you measure Power transitions are most strongly related to what type of bargaining failure Commitment problems What conditions affect the probability of conflict with a power transition Chinas is increasing East Asian maritime claims China Japan Philippines Vietnam Malaysia Power transition Magnitude of war When are power shifts dangerous Possible responses to the rise of China Prevent deter and delay challenge Deny access to markets Strength alliances with regional states Japan South Korea Philippines Engage Integrate China China In the global market Us alliances in the Indo pacific China policy in the pentagon Bridge Colby Populism and globalization What are some of the primary concerns with globalization Interconnected global economy vulnerable to crises Favors already powerful countries can increase inequality Gains have been concentrated within countries too Stolper Samuelson Capital benefits from globalization in developed world Labor benefits from globalization in developing the world What is populism An ideology that divides democratic societies into two groups with antagonistic interests the pure people and the corrupt elite An ideology that transcends left and right A diagnosis cure for failures of democracy The rise of populism AfD Populism in the US Long history in the us on the left and the right Unifying theme the elites economic or cultural are taking advantage of the people and the existing system can t react Division Who is the bad guy and what is the appropriate way to defeat him Summing up Increased concern over Weapons Mass destruction WMD Will Chinas rise lead to more conflict Will globalization survive the populist backlash What will shape our world forward
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