Feb 10Feb. 12Feb. 14INR 2002 Notes- Feb. 10-14Feb 10---Does economics, rather than democracy, cause peace?- Golden Arches theory of conflict prevention (McDonalds don’t go to war with each other)- Economic development and peaceo Not true that the more developed a country is the less likely it is to go to war- Interest similarity?---Other criticisms of Democratic Peace- Is it due to chance?- Democracies are too far away to fight- India/Pakistan caseo Both went to war with democratically elected Gov., however there is controversy surrounding this (president wasn’t aware war was established)---Will an entirely democratic world be peaceful?- Two democracies= least war- Two non-democracies= next most war- One democracy and one non-democracy= most waro As you increase the amount of democracies in the world, we initially see an increase in conflict, but it then declines ---Will an entirely democratic world be peaceful?- Some support for increasing global democracy and decreasing war- But we cannot say how much conflict there will be between non-democracies, even if the world is 90% democraticChapter 5- International Institutions and War- Anarchy creates variation in international responses to aggression, because there are no global police- How do different international institutions respond to violence?o Alliances (NATO)o Collective Security Organizations (UN)---Alliances: Why Promise to Fight Someone else’s war?- Alliances- institutions that help countries cooperate militarily in the event of a war.- Can either be defensive or offensiveTypes of Alliances:- Ententes- (consultation agreements)- Nonaggression pacts- if you get attacked, I will not join your attacked”- Defense pacts- “If you’re attacked, I got your back”- Offense Pacts- “lets go attack another country”Alliances and Alignments- Alliances form when states have common interests that motivate them to cooperate- In World War II, Britain and France agreed to defend Poland because they believed it was crucial to their own interestsAlliance Behavior- Sometimes alliances form to maintain the balance of power- Balancing vs. Bandwagoning (join the country with the most power)- Chainganging (alliances work like a chain, when one country goes to war it drags others in ex. WW1) vs. Buckpassing (When your ally is attacked, you run the opposite direction and don’t defend)Bargaining Between Two States- Affects the Bargaining model when other countries are involvedWhat do (defensive) alliances do?- Augment the power of member states, deterring challenges- Increase the costs of war, expanding the bargaining range- However, they can also create problems of incomplete informationFeb. 12Do Alliances prevent or promote war?- On one hand, alliances deter challengers- On the other hand, alliances increase the problem of incomplete information- Allies have private information about willingness to defend each othero “Signaling credibility of alliances” –making alliances publicAlliances and Incomplete Information- To make alliances credible, an ally must demonstrate its commitment.o Costly signals and tying hands- But this can create a moral hazard- engaging in risky behavior because you have some type of “insurance”, which can lead to war.- Germany’s “blank check” to Austria-HungaryCollective Security Organizations- Differ from alliances- Form under the common interest of preventing aggression in any form- All for one, one for allCollective Security: League of Nations- 1919- First global collective security organization- International community determines when there is a threat to peace and securityProblems with League of Nations- Needed unanimous agreement- U.S did not join- mostly because they are still very isolated from other countries- Countries left when they wanted to pursue aggressionThe Dilemmas of Collective Security- Collective Action problems- Joint decision-making problemsUnited Nations- Formed after WWII- Global collective security agreement to replace League of NationStructure of the UN: General Assembly- One State, One vote- Universal membership- Mainly passes nonbinding resolutions- Sets UN budgetStructure of the UN: Security Council- 5 permanent members, 10 non-permanent memberso Russia, Great Britain, United States, China, France (permanent members) Only countries in the world able to have nuclear weapons They have absolute veto power Resolutions need 9 of 15 votes to passCollective security and the UN- Prohibit aggression, but allow self-defense- Security Council determines existence of threat to world peace- May authorize economic or military sanctionsEconomic sanctions as collective security- Security Council can punish aggressive regimes economically- Rarely used sanctions during the Cold War- More frequently uses sanctions post-Cold War (ex. Iraq in the 1990s)Military operations as collective security- The Security Council authorizes two different kinds of military operations:o Peace Enforcement Korean War Gulf War Cold War paralysiso PeacekeepingFeb. 14Peacekeeping- Not mentioned in UN Charter- Partial solution to Cold War inaction by Security Council- First UN peacekeeping example- between Egypt and IsraelUN Peacekeeping: Suez Canal Crisis 1956- Suez canal built by Britain and France in 1800s, used for trade- In 1956, Egypt nationalized the canal- Britain and France get Israel to attack Egypt- UN inserts peacekeeping force between Israel and Egypt (authorized by the GA)- British and French accept cease-fire- However, Nassar expels peacekeepers in 1967UN Peacekeeping:- No identified aggressor- Must be invitedPeacekeeping Functions- Separate combatants (neutral buffer)- although they are unarmed- Observe and monitor cease-fires- Distribute humanitarian aid- Today they are asked to do much more… (too much?)Challenges to Peacekeeping- Traditional peacekeeping may not be suited to civil conflicts (hard for peacekeepers to separate war-sides when they cannot tell “who is who”- Hotel Rwanda example- Failures in former Yugoslavia and Rwanda- a number of civilians were killed- Success in El SalvadorIs Peacekeeping effective?- Effective at upholding cease-fires- Effective at preventing violence- This could however be counter productive to upholding long-term peaceo Some would argue the best way to confront a conflict is for the two countries to go to war and “fight it out” to resolve conflict.- Therefore, less effective at providing conditions for permanent peace
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