The Science Pseudo science of Earthquake Prediction Thalia Anagnos Professor Engineering San Jos State University ENGR 100w Why are earthquakes so interesting Earthquake Date Chile tsunami The Impact Magnitude Number of Deaths May 22 1960 9 5 4 000 to 5 000 Alaska tsunami Mar 28 1964 9 2 125 Sumatra tsunami Dec 26 2004 9 0 283 106 Michoacan Mexico Sept 19 1985 8 0 9 500 estimates as high as 30 000 San Francisco Apr 18 1906 7 8 3 000 Sichuan China May 12 2008 7 9 69 180 Taiwan Sept 20 1999 7 7 2 297 Pakistan Oct 8 2005 7 6 80 361 Tangshen China Jul 27 1976 7 5 255 000 estimates as high as 655 000 Loma Prieta Oct 18 1989 6 9 63 Kobe Japan Jan 16 1995 6 9 5 502 Northridge Jan 17 1994 6 7 60 Source USGS http earthquake usgs gov eqcenter top10 php ENGR 100w Casualties Deaths and Injuries The majority of deaths occur in collapsed buildings China schools In addition to deaths there are many less severe casualties hospitalized and non hospitalized ENGR 100w Why are earthquakes so interesting The Human Dimension Refugee camp San Francisco Earthquake 1906 400 000 people homeless Source The California Historical Society Temporary shelters in Kobe 1995 300 000 people homeless www lib kobe u ac jp directory eqb photo sakai eng e V4 e VA 4 01 html ENGR 100w Why are earthquakes so interesting The Devastation and the Inequality 1999 Izmit Turkey EQ M7 6 17 118 deaths Source Mehmet Celebi USGS ENGR 100w Why are earthquakes so interesting A Global Problem Source USGS http earthquake usgs gov regional world seismicity index php ENGR 100w Why are earthquakes so interesting Increasing Losses 1995 Kobe 100 billion 1999 Izmit 13 billion Taiwan 12 billion Typhoon Bart Hurricane Floyd Swiss floods For comparison Hurricane Katrina 100 billion Source Munich Reinsurance ENGR 100w Is earthquake prediction a solution Wouldn t it be great if we could predict earthquakes Then we could Evacuate people Turn off the gas Have emergency services shelters in place Alert trains to slow down or stay in the station Turn off equipment Open fire station doors Program elevators not to operate much more ENGR 100w Earthquake Prediction How is earthquake prediction defined Turn to your neighbor and discuss what are the elements of an earthquake prediction ENGR 100w Earthquake Prediction A reliable earthquake prediction should occur BEFORE the event and include Location Time Size How likely Reasons behind prediction justification ENGR 100w What might you need to know to make an EQ prediction Tectonic environment Edge of a plate Interior of a plate Transform fault Subduction zone Rate at which plates are moving History of earthquakes in the area What types of precursors precede EQs EQ swarms Dogs missing Changes in water table Anomalous electrical activity in the ground What triggers earthquakes Tides High stress ENGR 100w Successful and Unsuccessful Predictions in China Winter 1975 Haicheng evacuated pop 150 000 Unusual observations over months changes in land elevation changes in ground water levels widespread accounts of peculiar animal behavior regional increase in seismicity finally increase in foreshock activity triggered evacuation warning M7 3 EQ occurred Feb 4 1975 Possibly 150 000 lives saved July 28 1976 M 7 6 EQ hits Tangshan pop 1 million No precursors 250 000 to 600 000 people died ENGR 100w Tangshan after EQ 85 of buildings collapsed hi baidu com 2009 ENGR 100w Tectonic Information Spaced based measurements VLBI and GPS show that PAC NA motion in CA is 50 mm yr VLBI Very Long Baseline Interferometry using radio telescopes ENGR 100w Precursor Each cross marks an earthquake recorded in the New Madrid seismic zone since 1974 Source USGS What does this mean Is a major earthquake imminent ENGR 100w 1989 Browning Prediction Dr Iben Browning a climatologist predicted an earthquake of M7 0 or larger on the New Madrid Fault Zone on December 3 1990 Bulging in the earth s crust caused by the gravitational pull of the earth and the moon would trigger an earthquake on December 3 Tides were at a peak on December 3 Published in the Browning Newsletter News media picked it up gave it credibility and claimed he had previously predicted the Loma Prieta earthquake ENGR 100w 1989 Browning Prediction Believing the prediction was baseless the scientific community did little to debunk the claim 6 weeks before 12 3 90 the National EQ Prediction Evaluation Council NEPEC issues a report prediction is as accurate as throwing darts at a calendar but report is too late The midwest goes wild Schools close factories close people flee Many buy EQ insurance Becomes tourist attraction sell It s our fault t shirts No EQ occurs on December 3 ENGR 100w Browning s Loma Prieta Prediction On October 10 1989 Browning gave a speech in San Francisco in which he said on or about October 16 there will probably be several earthquakes around the world Richter 6 and there may be a volcano or two According to NEPEC an EQ of 6 occurs on average every three days around the world ENGR 100w Scientific Method Identify a question Formulate hypothesis Make a prediction to test hypothesis Collect data Interpret data Confirm or disprove hypothesis RESULTS ARE REPEATABLE ENGR 100w Date Random or Earthquake Lost Cats Dogs Other Total Dec 09 85 Random 2 11 0 13 Oct 07 86 Random 3 11 0 14 Mar 23 91 Earthquake M 4 5 7 09 1 17 Nov 29 92 Random 6 11 0 17 Dec 23 84 Random 4 14 0 18 Dec 01 85 Random 3 15 0 18 Aug 07 89 Earthquake M 4 9 4 14 1 19 Feb 01 93 Random 8 11 0 19 Jun 12 88 Earthquake M 5 2 4 15 1 20 Mar 30 86 Earthquake M 5 6 2 18 1 21 Jun 27 88 Earthquake M 5 1 5 13 3 21 Apr 24 84 Earthquake M 6 1 5 16 1 22 Nov 09 88 Earthquake M 4 8 3 17 2 22 Apr 02 89 Earthquake M 4 6 5 16 1 22 Jun 10 91 Random 4 14 5 Feb 27 93 Random 8 16 1 Dec 10 91 Random 5 20 1 Aug 11 93 Earthquake M 4 6 9 14 4 Oct 17 89 Earthquake M 7 1 9 15 4 Aug 14 91 Random 6 17 6 Project by 10 year 25 old and 26 USGS 27 researcher 28 Andrew ENGR 100w 29 Michael 23 Browning s Method Calculated the increased strain on the Earth s crust by the alignment of the Earth sun and moon Looked for places around the world where fault could have accumulated significant strain New Madrid hadn t had an event since 1812 Did Browning use the scientific method ENGR 100w The Parkfield Experiment Began in 1985 Led by USGS and State of California Goals To better understand the physics of earthquakes To understand what happens on the fault and in the surrounding region before during and after an earthquake To provide a