ENGINEERING 100W LAB ASSIGNMENT Dr Thalia Anagnos Objectives of Assignment Use the correct format for a memo Use your understanding of the scientific method to evaluate an earthquake prediction Develop and support an argument Cite sources and use quotes correctly Background Jim Berkland a retired geologist has developed the seismic window theory to predict earthquakes Berkland 2005 His theory is based on the alignment of the sun Earth and moon syzygy Alignment of the sun Earth and moon of course occurs at new moon and full moon He is particularly interested in the coincidence of perigee and syzygy Perigee is the point in the moon s orbit when it is closest to Earth When perigee and syzygy coincide the tidal forces are particularly large and he claims that an eight day seismic window opens in which earthquakes are more likely to occur A seismic window happens about five times per year Mr Berkland maintains a web site http www syzygyjob com on which he posts his predictions and what happened during the previous seismic window An example of his posting for the June 2008 seismic window is found on the next page Needless to say Berkland s seismic window theory is highly controversial He has a loyal fan base as well as a vocal group of critics Assignment Read the attached posting from Jim Berkland s web site and make your own judgment about the validity of his method Use your knowledge of the scientific method your understanding of the components of a prediction and the data he provides to form your argument THERE IS NO RIGHT ANSWER TO THIS ASSIGNMENT I am looking for a solid argument supporting your conclusion based on the evidence you gather The PowerPoint about earthquake prediction is found on the class web site www engr sjsu edu tanagnos ENGR100W click on Friday Speakers Guidelines The assignment must be turned in at the end of this class period and a copy MUST BE TURNED INTO TURNITIN COM The letter must be typed on the computer Complete the memo with 12 point Times Roman font 1 and line spacing and 1 inch margins 1 2 3 4 Write a memo to Thalia Anagnos Professor stating your claim and your argument Number your pages Cite references in APA style Include a References section at the end of your letter with properly formatted references Proofread your document before you print it Sign it at the top next to your name and hand it Grading Introduction of memo purpose and scope and the issue Clear stance and argument to support that stance Conclusions summarizing your argument References properly cited and plagiarism avoided Correct grammar spelling punctuation memo format Total 3 3 3 2 4 15 points References Berkland J 2005 Who is Geologist Jim Berkland Retrieved February 22 2009 from http www syzygyjob com index php Itemid 27 id 13 option com content task view Page 1 ENGINEERING 100W LAB ASSIGNMENT Dr Thalia Anagnos The following text is taken from Jim Berkland s Earthquake Prediction Site http www syzygyjob com PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE The Seismic window of June 1 8 2008 is based on the new Moon of June 3rd and the very close perigee just 8 hours earlier The resultant high tides will peak out at a startling 9 0 ft at Golden Gate on June 3 4 and 16 6 ft at Puget Sound on June 5 6 2008 I predict with 85 confidence that there will be one or more of the following earthquakes 1 3 5 6 5M within 140 miles 2 degrees of Mt Diablo at 37 9N 121 9W 2 3 5 6 5M within 140 miles of Los Angeles at 34 0N 118 0W 3 3 5 5 5M with an epicentral address of Washington or Oregon 4 7 0M major quake globally probably within the Pacific Ring of fire where most large quakes hit LAST MONTH S EARTHQUAKES The Seismic Window of June 1 8th was replete with earthquakes many in unusual places All it lacked was a 7 0 M quake but close to the minimum score was the 6 6M quake in Southern Greece that killed at least two people and injured hundreds It hit on the last day of the June Window No major quakes occurred in the world since the 7 9 8 0M Chinese quake on the last day of the May Window As I complete this July Issue of SYZYGY the next major quake occurred striking Honshu Japan on June 13th The USGS determination of 6 8M would leave it just 0 2M shy of major status Let us examine what happened during the June Window compared with my predictions 1 There were widely felt quakes of 4 1 and 4 0M at The Geysers on May 29th These were three days early for a score of 70 however on June 3rd an even more widely event was centered on the Green Valley Fault southwest of Napa It was felt by many people in Sonoma Valley but I regret to say I missed it I was at a lively dinner for docents at the Bouverie Nature Preserve when my earthquake belt indicator sounded and revealed that a 3 9M had struck about 30 miles away at 7 29 p m I happily announced to many in the crowd that the quake I had predicted in the newsletter I had just handed out had already struck I called it my kind of quake not big enough to hurt but big enough to grab your attention SCORE 100 for my 140 mile circle around Mt Diablo Just three days later there was another 100 hit right next to Mt Diablo when the town of Alamo remember it was jolted by a pair of quakes measuring 3 5 and 3 0M The interrupted swarm at Verdi Nevada resumed with jolts of 3 9 and 3 6M on June 8th about 154 miles east of Mt Diablo They were worth 80 90 in my scoring system as they were ten percent beyond my 140 mile limit 2 For the Circle of interest around Los Angeles there was a lot of minor activity including a numerous swarm near the south end of the Salton Sea near a geothermal area The largest of 3 2M on June 1st was good for a rating of 70 The next days there were quakes of 3 0M too weak to score near El Centro and Idylwild however Mexicali came through with a 3 8M on June 7th for a score of 100 3 There was no suspense regarding the Washington Oregon prediction as a 4 7M shaker was Page 2 ENGINEERING 100W LAB ASSIGNMENT Dr Thalia Anagnos centered on the oceanic ridge off the coast of Oregon on June 1st for a satisfying score of 100 It would be just fine with me if all of the Pacific Coast quakes were less than 5 0M and stayed well to the west of the coastline 4 The prediction for a global quake of at least 7 0M failed to produce even a 6 7M event although the destructive 6 6M quake hit southern Greece on …