POLS 2401 Edition 1 Lecture 19Outline of Previous LectureWater ScarcityI. Water: An Essential ResourceA. need for survivalII. Water SourcesA. Fresh Water SourcesB. Desalination of Sea WaterIII. Water Use and Consumption PatternsA. General Global ConsumptionB. Sectoral UsageIV. Uneven DistributionV. Predictions and Potential ProblemsOutline of Current LectureGlobal Aging Problem I.Rise of an Aging PopulationA. growing at a fast paceII. CausesA. longer life expectancyIII. Declining BirthratesA. birth controlB. women in the workforceIII. Declining Death RatesIV. Policy ResponsesThe Problem of Global Aging•Rise of an Aging Population•In general, the worlds aging population is growing at a fast pace and within 10 years the number of people of the age of 65 will outnumber children under the age of 5 for the first time in history•In 2012, there were 809 million people over the age of 60 (11% of total world population)•The problem is most pronounced in the industrialized world, as well as some parts of the developing world such as Eastern Europe, Russia and China•Although at a slower rate, the aging trend is also occurring in the developing world as the fertility rate and population growth also drop there•% of Population Aged 60 or older, Selected Countries, 2012•Causes of the Rise of an Aging Population••Declining birthrates–Overall, people having fewer children••Longer life expectancy–With people living longer, there will be more old people•Declining Birth Rates•Birth rates declining in most industrialized countries: only the US and France have more than 2 children born per woman (UN figures) and Japan’s population is now shrinking•Reasons for the decline:–Birth control–Women in the workforce and new career paths–Economic cost of having children: seen as more expensive and less affordable–Decline in infant mortality rate and child mortality rate•Declining Death Rates and Longer Life Expectance••Due to medical advances and lifestyle changes, people now live a lot longer in industrialized countries••Life expectancy in industrialized countries is now between 79-84 years••The result: a larger % of old people in the population•Example of changes over time: Japan•Problems Associated with Larger Aging Populations•Decline in the labor force and increase in elderly (population that doesn’t work and often needs care)•Decline in economic growth?–growth is based on labor force and productivity, a loss in labor force must be matched by an increase in productivity•Budget crises with increasing costs of elder care and declining revenues, e.g. rising cost of pension•Number of working age people (15-64) for every retired person decreased from 12 people in 1950 to 9 people now and is forecast to be just 4 people in 2050•Policy Responses•Immigration: bring more young people in from the outside•Encourage families to have more children•Various reforms to manage the problem:–Efforts to increase savings–Changes in the pension system: lower retirement age and changes in early retirement policy, lower pension amounts–Promotion of later retirement–Try to find ways to cut costs of elder