POLS 2401 1st Edition Lecture 15Outline of Previous LectureGlobal Environmental Issues and PoliticsI.20th Century Human Impact on the EnvironmentA. Climate change and ozone depletionB. Nuclear and chemical riskII. Human Causes of Environmental Change and DegrationA. Agricultural productionB. War and political conflictsIII. Evolution of Global Environmental Politics and InstitutionsIV. Conventions and Agreements Related to the EnvironmentV. Other SolutionsOutline of Current LectureGlobal WarmingI.BackgroundA. Emergence of the issues of Global WarmingII. Task of IPPCA. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIII. The IPPC on Global WarmingIII. Potential Negative Effects of Global WarmingIV. Politics of Global WarmingV. Kyoto ProtocolCurrent LectureBackground: Emergence of the Issue of Global Warming•World Meteorological Organization (WMO)–Successor to the International Meteorological Organization (est. 1873)–Joined UN System as WMO in 1950–Focus: weather, climate, and water–Became a popular topic of the NGOs and news•1979 World Climate Conference (WMO)•Several WMO conferences on climate change in 1980s lead to 1988 establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC )•Tasks of IPCC•review the scientific data on climate change•examine the possible environmental and socio-economic impacts of climate change•formulate response strategies•Reports: 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013-14 (currently being released in 4 separate parts)•The IPCC on Global Warming•Scientific observations indicate the world is warming–The global average land and ocean surface temperature has increased by about 0.85°C between 1880-2012–Snow cover and ice extent have decreased–Global average sea level has risen by .19 meters between 1901-2010 and ocean heat content has increased in the past 100 years•IPCC on Global Warming, cont.•Cause of Global Warming–Build-up of “greenhouse” gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous and sulfur oxides) raises the capacity of the atmosphere to insulate the earth, raising temperatures•Emissions of greenhouse gases are increasing and often brought about by human activities–Atmospheric CO2 has increased by 40% since 1750, methane has increased 150%, nitrous oxide 20%.–About ¾ of human-source emissions of CO2 in the past 30 years is due to fossil fuel burning, the rest is land-use change (especially deforestation)–Atmospheric concentration of methane has increased 150% since 1750, more than half of methane emissions are probably due to human activities (use of fossil fuels, cattle, rice agriculture, landfills)–It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of observed global warming since the mid-20th century•Potential Negative Effects of Global Warming•More extreme weather patterns–increase in floods and droughts–heat waves, intense rainstorms•Rising oceans, washing away land in some parts of the world•Health Impact: More diseases•Ecosystem disruption: ecosystems shifts and species extinction•Impact will be greater on less developing countries and on the poor•Other effects: food security, conflict over land and resources•Politics of Global Warming•UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)–Completed immediately prior to the UN Conference on Environment and Development, 1992–Ratified by 195 countries and the EU (196 parties)–Signatories agree to•Gather and share information on greenhouse gas emissions•Launch national strategies to address greenhouse gas emissions, and help developing countries•Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to climate change•Kyoto Protocol (1997)•Signed in 1997, 191 countries are parties to the protocol•US has not ratified the protocol (not apart of it at all)•Commits 37 signatories from industrialized world to cut greenhouse emissions by set targets, adding up to a total cut of 5% from 1990 levels:–Canada and Japan: 6%–EU: 8%–US: 7%•Time period of reduction: 2008-2012•Developing countries are out of the framework and do not have to cut emissions yet•After Kyoto: What Next?•2012: Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol–Extends protocol till 2020–New commitments for industrialized countries: reduce greenhouse gases by 18% of 1990 levels(2013-2020)–Countries monitor and report emissions–Protocol also helps countries adapt to climate change, provide technology and funds to developing countries–•By 2015: Negotiation of a new treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol–New treaty will be defined by 2015 and go into effect in 2020 (and Kyoto Protocol will expire)–Developing countries will in included this