POLS 2401 Edition 1 Lecture 17Outline of Previous LectureEnergy IssuesI.BackgroundA.Energy resources needed for both production and consumptionII. The Oil Crisis of the 1970s and the issue of Limited ResourcesIII. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)IV. World Energy Consumption by Source, 2011V. Projections of the International Energy AgencyVI. Renewable Sources of EnergyVII. Nuclear EnergyOutline of Current LectureGlobal PandemicsI.Global Spread of DiseasesA. Black DeathII. Recent Infectious Diseases that have Spread Globally A.HIV/AIDsB. TuberculosisC.SARSD.Avion Flu & Swine FluIII.Previous modern Influenza PandemicsA.Spanish FluB. Asian FluC. Hong Kong FluIV.Avion Flu and its InfluencesV. International ResponsesA. World Health OrganizationVI. National Responses •Infectious Diseases and Pandemics•POLS 2401•Global Issues•Global Spread of Disease•Has occurred throughout history: Black Death in the 1340s, killed a third of the population in Europe•Has gotten faster recently with globalization (planes, increase in travel and migration)•Recent infectious diseases that have spread globallyHIV/AIDs: more than 36 million people have died; 35.3 million now infected (2012) Tuberculosis: 8.6 million infected, 1.3 million died (2012 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), West Nile Virus, Ebola Avian Flu and Swine Flu (H1N1)•Previous Modern Influenza Pandemics•Spanish Flu (1918-19): Killed an estimated 40-50 million people worldwide•Asian Flu (1957): 2 million deaths•Hong Kong Flu (1968): 1 million deaths•Avian Flu•Influenza type A virus: H5N1 and more recently other strains H7N9, H10N8•Wild birds ® Domesticated birds/animals ®Humans•3 conditions for a pandemic: (1) a new influenza virus subtype emerges for which there is no humanimmunity; (2) it infects humans and causes illness; (3) it spreads easily and in a sustainedmanner among humans•So far, first two conditions have been met in Asia and Europe•May or may not happen, no one knows•Rise and Spread of Avian Flu•First appears in birds in China in 1997, since then has mutated and spread to affect many birds inother countries as well as other species•2003-2004: outbreaks all over Asia, but especially Southeast Asia and China•Since 2003, 63 countries/territories have experienced outbreaks of H5NI in poultry/birds; theproblem, however, remains concentrated in Asia•Since 2003, more than 400 million poultry have either died or been slaughtered as a safety measureand cost $20 billion in economic damages by the end of 2006•Very lethal: kills nearly all domesticated chicken it infects•H5N1 now found in other animals: pigs, cats, dogs, tigers•Avian Flu and Humans•Human cases of avian influenza reported in: Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, Canada,China, Djibouti, Egypt, Indonesia, Iraq, Laos, Nigeria, Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey, Vietnam•650 cases reported; 386 (60%) died – H1N1 (no figures for other strains)•Virus usually passed from bird to human, although there have been a few human-to-human case•Usually infected by direct or close contact with infected poultry or contaminated surfaces; cookedchicken appears safe•Potential consequences•High human toll (many deaths)•Economic toll–Besides poultry industry (e.g.$20 billion in losses in Asia by 2006), will affect almost all businesses,trade, productivity, etc. •Security and Social Chaos–Will affect troops overseas, in some countries will kill many in army and police force, could lead tobreakdown in law and order and to social instability•International Responses•World Health Organization (WHO)–Conducts influenza surveillance, collects information, overseas labs, helps countries coordinatevarious efforts•Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and World Organization for Animal Health (OIE)–Monitors flu outbreaks in animal populations–Advises governments on culling flocks, cross-border trade, livestock quarantine and vaccination •National responses•Vaccine and anti-viral drug stockpiling and development–So far a few vaccines have been developed, but current drugs may not always be effective (needconstant adaptation)•Response plans at state and local levels for possible outbreak: distribution of drugs and vaccines,plans to prevent spread (quarantines, closing of schools, liberal work leave policies, etc.)•Many US agencies involved: Center for Disease Control, US Dept of Health and Human Services,State Department, Dept of Agriculture, Dept. of Homeland Security, Dept. of