POLS 2401 1st EditionLecture 16Outline of Previous LectureGlobal WarmingI.BackgroundA. Emergence of the issues of Global WarmingII. Task of IPPCA. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIII. The IPPC on Global WarmingIII. Potential Negative Effects of Global WarmingIV. Politics of Global WarmingV. Kyoto ProtocolOutline of Current LectureEnergy IssuesI.BackgroundA.Energy resources needed for both production and consumptionII. The Oil Crisis of the 1970s and the issue of Limited ResourcesIII. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)IV. World Energy Consumption by Source, 2011V. Projections of the International Energy AgencyVI. Renewable Sources of EnergyVII. Nuclear EnergyCurrent Lecture•Background: Energy Issues•Energy resources needed for both production and consumption–Electricity, transportation, heating, etc.–•Shift in energy sources over time in industrialized countries:Wood à Coal à Oil•1970s: Question of limited “non-renewable” resources (oil) emerges•The Oil Crises of the 1970s and the Issue of Limited Resources•1973 Oil Crisis–Oil Embargo: Arab members of OPEC announce that they would no longer ship petroleum to nations supporting Israel in the Yom Kippur War of 1973–OPEC quadruples world oil prices–Oil “Shock” in Western countries with sharp price hikes in oil••Effects of Oil Crisis–Rationing of gas, new energy conservation measures adopted in many countries–New interest in renewable energy sources–Greater awareness of oil as a political and security issue•Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)•Established in 1960•Members: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.•Coordinates petroleum policies and economic aid among oil-producing and exporting nations•OPEC reviews current situation and forecasts (economic growth rates, petroleum demand and supply scenarios, etc.) and decide unified petroleum policies–Raise or lower production to maintain prices and supplies•Declining importance of OPEC since the 1980s, as oil prices go down due to increased supplies from non-OPEC countries and lower demand in the 1980s•World Energy Consumption by Source, 2011•Projections of the International Energy Agency, 2013-2035•If cautious governments policies are implemented, world energy needs will increase by 1/3 from 2013-2035.• 90% of the increase in global energy demand will come from developing countries, especially China and India.•The US is projected to meet all its energy needs domestically by 2035, thanks in large part to shale oil. It will surpass Saudi Arabia as a major oil producer by 2015.•Fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy and oil imports in many countries will increase, especially in Asia. •Even with increased production of US unconventional oil and natural liquid gas around the world, oil from the Middle East will remain at the center of the oil outlook.•Global demand for coal will rise 17% (mainly due to use in Asia – India, China, Southeast Asia)•Renewable Sources of Energy•Small percentage of total energy consumption (3.4%), but it is an expanding portion of global electricity at currently 20% (including hydropower) and projected to grow as high as 57% by 2050. Investments in solar, wind and other “clean” renewable energy were $240 billion in 2012.•Wind–Most advances in recent years; optimistic projections predict it can meet 15-18% of total global electricity demand by 2050. Currently it produces a very small % of electricity globally, although it is growing in some countries.•Solar–If properly promoted, optimistic forecast is that solar energy could meet 7% of total global power demand by 2030 and 25% by 2050•Hydrogen–Still in developmental stage•Other renewables: hydropower, geothermal power, biofuels•Nuclear Energy•Currently accounts for 5-10% of the world energy supply and 12% of world electricity generation•Capacity is projected to slightly increase, but share of nuclear power in total electricity will decline•Causes of decline: retirement of old facilities, and decisions in some Western countries to phase out nuclear power due to safety risks•Asian countries will be the areas of growth for the nuclear industry (especially China, Japan, South Korea and