POLS 2401 1st EditionLecture 7Outline of Last LectureHotspots: Iran and Preventing Nuclear ProliferationI. Nuclear WeaponsA. Approaches to Dealing with the problem of Nuclear Arms ProliferationB. CasesII. High risks of nuclear proliferationA. Gamble of proliferation too high: it can reduce chances of war, but not eliminate themB. Difficult to reproduce MAD if countries small and poor, weakening the deterrence valueC. Terrorists, black marketIII. Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty (NPT)IV. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)V. Iran: Historical and Geopolitical ContextVI. Iran’s Nuclear ProgramOutline of Current LectureNorth Korea and Nuclear Threats in AsiaI. Background on North Korea A. North Korean CommunismB. Economic Crises since the 1990s and Food ShortagesC. Political Repression and Human Rights ViolationsD. The Kim DynastyII. North Korea’s Military CapabilitiesIII. Chronology of the North Korea Nuclear CrisisIV.1994 Agreed FrameworkV. Improvements in North-South Korea Relations in the late 1990s and early 2000sVI. North Korea Crisis in the early 2000sVII. North Korea Goes NuclearVIII. 6 Party TalksNorth Korea and Nuclear Threats in Asia-North Korea and Nuclear Threats in Asia-Background on North Korea-North Korean CommunismoThe Juche ideology of self-relianceoPolitical dynasty and personality cult of Kim Il Sung (the “Great Leader”), his son Kim Jong Il (the “Dear Leader”), and now Kim Jong Un (Kim Jong Il’s son, recentlyalso called “Dear Leader”)-Economic Crises since the 1990s and Food Shortages-Political Repression and Human Rights Violations-The Kim Dynasty-North Korea ’ s Military Capabilities-Four largest military in the world: army of 1.2 million (South Korea: 665,000, plus 28,000 US troops) (source: IISS Military Balance 2012)-11,000 missiles-Biological and Chemical Agentsoanthrax, botulinum toxin and plague; mustard, phosgene, sarin and other chemicals-Build up near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ)o10,000 artillery, 70% of the army-Chronology of the North Korea Nuclear Crisis-1985: North Korea becomes a party to the NPT-1992 Denuclearization Statement between the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK)-1993: North Korea announces it will withdraw from NPT over disagreement about IAEA inspections-1994: US-DPRK Agreed Framework-1994 Agreed Framework-North Korea agrees to freeze its existing nuclear program, to be monitored by IAEA-US agrees to help build 2 nuclear power plants in North Korea – set up an international consortium called the Korean Penninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO)-US and allies (South Korea, Japan) provide North Korea fuel and food aid-Chronology of Crisis, cont.-1998: North Korea launches a ballistic missile over Japan-2000: Madeline Albright visits North Korea, but fails to reach an agreement to halt NorthKorean exports of missile technology to Pakistan. Later North Korea officials visit Washington and sign a joint non-aggression pact. North Korea also agrees to a moratorium on long-range missile tests.-Improvements in North-South Korea Relations in the late 1990s and early 2000s-(ROK) Kim Dae Jung’s “Sunshine Policy”-Visits of families across the borderoFriendly visitsoFamilies were able to visit across the border for the first time ever-Agreement to reconnect east and west coast railways at the DMZ-New N-S economic cooperation: tourism, Kaesong Industrial Complex-President Roh Moon-Hyun (2003-08): pro-engagement, continues Sunshine policy-President Lee Myung-bak (2009-12): end of Sunshine policy, tougher policy towards NK and relations deteriorate-President Park Gyewon (2013-current): Attempts at engagement restarted-North Korea Crisis in the early 2000s-George W. Bush: 1994 Agreed Framework put on hold in 2001; calls North Korea part of “axis of evil” in State of the Union address in 2002-Late 2002, early 2003: North Korea declares Agreed Framework null and void, pulls out of NPT and kicks out IAEA inspectors-North Korea Goes Nuclear-Feb. 2003 Reactivates Yongbyon reactor-Feb. 10, 2005: Declares it has made nuclear weapon for self-defense-July 2006: Long-range missile test-October 2006: First nuclear bomb test-April 2008: Accused by US of helping Syria build a nuclear reactor-April 2009: Launches rocket that US says is the testing of long range missile technology, says it will restart the Yongbyon complex-May 2009: Announces successful underground nuclear test-2010: visiting US scientist is shown secret uranium enrichment facilities-December 2012: Launches a long-range rocket, seen as a disguised ballistic missile test by the international community-February 2013: Third and largest nuclear tests-International Response: Sanctions and Arms Bans-UN Responseo2009: UN Security Council unanimously passes ban on all weapon exports from North Korea and all weapon imports except small armso2013: UNSC passes new economic sanctions and arms bansoTrades have been limited for decades-Recent US Sanctions: 2008, 2010, 2013oCovers arms and economic activities-6 Party Talks-6 Party Talks start in 2003 and include: US, North Korea, South Korea, China, Japan, Russia-2005: At the 4th round of talks, North Korea agrees to give up its weapons in return for aid and security guarantees-2007 February - Six-party talks resume and North Korea agrees to close its main nuclear reactor in exchange for fuel aid-Summer 2007 IAEA inspectors back for first time since 2002 to verify shutdown of the Yongbyon reactor-Summer 2008: NK implodes the cooling tower at the Yongbyon facility before international media and declares its nuclear assets-Oct. 2008: US takes NK off the terrorist list-Dec. 2008 - May 2009: Talks break down, UN inspectors expelled-Since 2009: talks in