POLS 2401 Edition 1Outline of Previous LectureDeafeating Terrorism LectureI. What is terrorismA. Terrorist groupsB. State TerrorismC. US Designated State Sponsors of Terrorism-Cuba-Iran-Sudan-SyriaII. Various Sources of TerrorismA. How to fight Terrorism Outline of Current LectureNuclear Weapons Proliferation and Arms ReductionI. Entering a Nuclear AgeA. World War IIB. Cold WarC. Post-Cold WarII. Estimated Nuclear Warhead Stockpiles of Nuclear CountriesIII. Arms ReductionsA. TreatiesB. Pros & ConsEntering the Nuclear Age ● US develops atom bomb, uses it in World War II to end the war with Japan and drops bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki (1945)○ Proved the force and power of bomb● Cold War: US-USSR nuclear arms race that the threat of nuclear war○ Contest of building nuclear arms○ People created bomb shelters ● Post-Cold War: Renewed concern about spread of nuclear arms to other countries ● Estimated Nuclear Warhead Stockpiles of Nuclear CountriesCountry Total Nuclear WarheadsChina 250France 300India 100Israel 80Pakistan 120Russia 8,500UK 225US. 7,700North Korea. < 10 Total 17,300 Nuclear Abstainers● Nations with the economic and technological ability to build and maintain nuclear weapons who have chosen not to acquire them● Political motivation-Capable of using nuclear weapons but do not● Nuclear Umbrella● When one nation promises to employ its nuclear arsenal in order to defend another nation from attack. ● Positive effects of nuclear weapons: deterrence● Cold war● Nuclear weapons increase the cost of war, making it less likely● Mutual assured destruction (MAD): Any use of nuclear weapons inevitably entails one’s own destruction. Achieved when each party possesses an invulnerable second-strike (retaliatory) capability● Nuclear deterrence: possession of nuclear weapons encourages other countries to avoid war since the cost of war will be too high ● First Efforts to Reduce or Limit Nuclear Arms: 1960s – 1970s● Partial Test Ban Treaty (1963)○ Discourage testing of nuclear arms● Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (1968)○ Keep nuclear arm number down● Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM Treaty) (1972)○ Capped the number of arms that the US and USSR could have○ US left ABM in 2002 and is now developing a ballistic missile defense system● Strategic Arms Limitation Talks I (SALT I) (1972) and SALT II (1979) – “freeze” the number of arms both for soviet union and united states ● From Freeze to Arms Reductions: 1980s-1990s ● Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) (1987)○ banished an entire class of nuclear delivery vehicles (missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers) ; big step forward of getting rid of one category of arm weapons● Strategic Arms Reduction Talks I (START I) (1991)○ each country required to reduce nuclear inventory to 1,600 delivery vehicles (missiles and bombers) and 6,000 strategic explosive nuclear devices (warheads and bombs) by 2001○ led to a reduction of about 30-40% of total arms● START II (1993)○ goal: cuts of nuclear warheads and bombs to 3,500 for US and 2,997 for Russia by 2007○ Signed in 1993, but never went into force ● The Moscow Treaty (2002)● Full name: Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions (SORT)● 2 countries agree to cut their nuclear arsenals of nuclear warheads and bombs to no more than 2,200 by 2012● Unlike START I, no verification or implementation measures● Together with the SALT and START treaties, contributed to a large reduction in nuclear arms○ combined US and Russian arsenal of nuclear warheads and bombs has gone down from nearly 60,000 in 1970 to about 19,000 in 2012 ● The New START Treaty (2011)● Successor to the Moscow Treaty, set to expire in 10 years● Limits both countries to 1,550 warheads (down from 2,200)● Includes verification procedures such as on-site inspections, data exchanges and notification procedures ● Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)● Goal: end all explosive testing of nuclear weapons○ linked to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty’s ultimate goal of eliminating nuclear weapons● Signed in 1996● 159 countries have ratified CTBT● But CTBT not in force since 8 of the 44 countries with nuclear weapon capability have not ratified it (all 44 countries needed for the treaty to go into effect○ China, Egypt, India, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and the US ● Recent Revival of Debate on CTBT Ratification in the United States● CTBT signed by Clinton but rejected by the US Senate in 1999● Obama Administration:○ States goal of elimination of nuclear arms worldwide as a goal○ Revives the debate on CTBT as part of this effort and hopes to get Congress to ratify it Pros and Cons● Pros○ Leadership: if we want to promote nuclear disarmament globally, the CTBT iscrucial○ Nothing to lose: We don’t test nuclear weapons using explosions anymore and don’t need to● Cons○ The US should not limit its options, it may need to develop new technologies in the future○ Ratifying the treaty will not deter rogue countries or enemies from developing nuclear