alliances International Institutions and War the puzzle o most states have an interest in preventing and punishing aggression yet the international community generally fails why anarchy sovereignty o how do international institutions affect prospects for war and peace what are the police in PI o no single authority higher than state an anarchic international system o in anarchy states are dependent upon self help no police nonetheless states cooperate and build institutions that affects their security and prospects for war and peace o 2 paths alliances realism collective security organizations liberalism last time the UN used force to get an aggressor out kuwait alliances are institutions that facilitate military cooperation in events of war o ex NATO Defensive alliance offensive alliances o germany and USSR ally to dismember Poland 1939 o coalition of the willing in Iraq 2003 defensive alliances o UK and France w Poland 1939 o who is the US committed to defend o south korea japan and through nato canada and most states in western and centered Europe cold war alliances o NATO 1949 VS WARSAW PACT 1955 o Nato said if you re attacked everyone will come help o everyone started switching sides from USSR to NATO o only other time everyone came to aid EU helping us after 9 11 why form alliances o what do defensive alliances do by augmenting power of members alliances increase the cost of war expands the BR bargaining range war less likely but they create new information asymmetries leading to new bargaining failures balancing o military capabilities of 2 states equal bandwagoning o states join forces with the stronger side in the conflict USSR allie w Germany instead of Poland alliances must be made public o aka open covenants by wilson treaties also negotiating public o o now A enters in an alliance w C 2 party conflicts A B have the same potential for bargaining failures as in A B have different estimates of C s reliability if A believes C is reliable A may demand too much if B believes C is reliable B may demand too much Alliance and credibility o alliances influence bargaining if they are credible o but carrying out an alliance commitment is costly and alliances are not binding contracts not reliable punishment mechanism how can an ally make its commitment credible costly signals mobilization in favor of ally closer economic ties joint military weapons and training increase cost of abandonment tying hands public commitment stationary troops Why are alliances not ironclad o alliances involved a credibility entrapment trade off ironclad promises can deter challengers but they may make your ally more aggressive or intransigent in negotiations a state doesn t want to become entrapped in a war by a reckless ally o how can a state avoid entrapment make ambiguous commitments but then the alliance may be more likely to be changed o ex US alliances w Taiwan and germany s blank check to austria hungary 1914 historic record for states honoring their alliance commitments o 75 of the time US China Taiwan o US defend Taiwan china declare war if Taiwan declares independence less description more credibility the success of an alliance strong common interests o o ability of the alliances to alter members preferences so that in the event war tightening is preferred to abandonment o adversaries must see the alliances realize o ability of alliances to limit hikes of entrapment o success or failure depend on credibility alliances politics o pre wwi multiple great power w many alliances seemed to dampen the number of wars but increase magnitude o pre wwii alliances failed to deter for lack of credibility o cold war two great powers with fixed alliances created many small wars ex iraq war collective security institutions that attempt to promote peace NATO US Canada west europe Warsaw Pact soviet union during cold war o Collective Security Collective security organizations almost universal institutions intended to deter challenges to the status quo o league of nations post wwii perpetrator victim how is CS supposed to work alliances arise when 2 states have a common interest in deterring an adversary o CS assumes all states want to prevent war no matter how the o make war less attractive due to overwhelming counter coalition o o resolve commitment problems serve as neutral observes 3rd party aka peacekeepers dilemma of CS o CAP promises to defend any member not credible each state has incentive to free ride on all others 1st step who s the aggressor 2nd step joint decision making problem members have to determine which count as aggression but because of universal membership there is a diversity of interests 3rd step CS works when all states are satisfied with status quo how it affects the bargaining interaction between adversaries o 1 prospect of outside involvement makes war less attractive by changing the likely outcome between states groups o 2 outsiders enforce what is said o 3 CSO neutral observers two major challenges o free siders self defense Origins of the UN o october 1943 o US UK USSR China had declared their intention to form a post war i o o lessons of the league of nations 1 participation of the great powers is essential 2 application of sanctions needed to be made more effective spring 1945 san francisco meeting o o 26 june 1945 charter complete signed 51 states o July 1945 charter ratified by the senate 89 2 UN Basic principles o all states 1 are equal under international law 2 have full sovereignty over their own affairs 3 have full independence and territorial integrity 4 should carry out international obligations respect diplomatic privileges aka sign a treaty respect it Sovereignty still at the core o 1 general assembly o 2 security council o 3 secretariat o 4 international court of justice o 5 economic and social council 1 General Assembly o composed of 193 states 1 state 1 vote palestine trying to be 194 o duties 1 determine budget 2 selects the secretary general and justice to the ICJ 3 debates issues within the scope of the charter 2 Security Council o primary responsibility for peace security o 5 permanent members USA Russia UK France China P5 o 10 rotating non permanent members 3 Secretariat all decisions majority vote o but 5 great powers have veto o o o the executive day to day operations international civil servants led by the secretary general Ban Ki moon 5 year term renewable south korea ally of the U S 4 International Court of Justice o decisions are binding o but no
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