INR2002 Chapter 3 Why Are There Wars Notes The Puzzle War is an extremely costly way for states to settle their disputes Given the human and material costs of military conflict why do states sometimes wage war rather than resolving their disputes through negotiations What is the Purpose of War group War an event involving the organized use of military force by at least two parties that reaches a minimum threshold of severity at least 1 000 battle deaths o Req that force be organized rules out spontaneous disorganized violence large scale rioting o Req that force be used by both sides distinguishes war from mass killings perpetrated by a gov t against some group that does not fight back o Req of minimum threshold excludes cases in which military force is used at low levels brief skirmishes minor clashes Types of war o Interstate war a war in which the main participants are states o Civil war a war in which the main participants are within the same state such as the gov t and a rebel Gaps in schools of through that are filled by the bargaining approach o 1 Realism argues that war is inevitable result of intl anarchy Absence of central authority wars can happen b c there is nothing to stop states from using force to get their way Anarchy creates insecurity and a competition for power States fight wars either to increase their own power enlarging territory or to counter the power of others destroying adversaries and allies Two primary dynamics that can lead to war 1 Preventative motive the desire to fight in order to prevent an enemy from becoming relatively more powerful 2 Security dilemma a dilemma that arises when efforts that states make to defend themselves causes other states to feel less secure o Can lead to arms race war due to fear of being attacked o Bargaining model shares realism s presumption that anarchy leads to a world in which military force is often threatened or used to further state s interests and conflicts are addressed through bargaining rather than institutions like courts Also anticipates prevention fear of attack as two mechanisms that can lead to war o Departure from realism recognizing that the use of military power imposes costs on states so even if it is useful to threaten force to get a better deal states are generally better off if they do not actually use force o 2 Role of misperceptions or mistakes wars must occur b c decision makers inaccurately estimate their chances of winning or the costs that will have to be paid Rests on research in cognitive psychology showing that people are bad at weighing risks and often fall prey to wishful thinking or on organizational approached that emphasize how the ideology and interests of political and military elites can lead to incorrect and overly optimistic assessments of war Concerns which perceptual pitfalls are universal war is quite rare and these theories have a hard time explaining why wars happen at some points in time but not in others o 3 Wars are fought not b c they serve the interests of the states but b c they serve the interests of influential groups within the state such as corporations arms merchants and the military Wars are fought in spite of their costs b c those costs do not fall on the actors who call the shots What Do States Fight Over Goods that states fight over o Territory The purpose of warfare is not to fight but rather to obtain through fighting or the threat of fighting something that the state wants o War a problem of bargaining over objects or issues that are of value to more than one state Over half of wars over the last 300 years involved conflicts over territory 1 Territory might contribute to the wealth of the state Valuable resources oil natural gas minerals Adding to the industrial or agricultural resources at the state s disposal 2 Territory might have military or strategic value Ex Golan Heights on the border of Israel and Syria 3 Territory might be valuable for ethnic cultural or historical reasons o States policies 1 When one state enacts a policy that benefits it but harms the interests of another 2 A state s mistreatment of its own citizens When states have policy disputes war or the threat of war may be a mechanism for compelling policy change War may also be used to replace the offending regime w a friendlier one that will o Regime type the composition of another country s gov t pursue different policies Bargaining and War To understand why some conflicts become warns and others do not we have to think about the strategic interactions that states engage in when they seek to settle their disputes o The intl system lacks reliable legal judicial and electoral institutions Result states must try to settle their conflicts through bargaining Bargaining interactions in which actors try to resolve disputes over the allocation of a good A crisis occurs when at least one state seeks to influence the outcome of bargaining by threatening to use military force in the event that it does not get what it wants o Coercive bargaining the consequences of not reaching an agreement can involve the use of force o Crisis bargaining a bargaining interaction in which at least one actor threatens to use force in the event that demands are not met The costs and likely outcome of a war determine which deals each side will consider acceptable 2 o Coercive diplomacy the use of threats to influence the outcome of a bargaining interaction Explicit ultimatum Implicit menacing actions mobilization of troops military maneuvers o Purpose they seek to wrest concessions form the other side by making the alternatives seems unacceptably costly Since a state has the option to wage war if it determines that it is in its interests to do so a state will only accept a bargain that gives it at least as much as it can expect to get from war o For any deal to prevent war it must satisfy all sides in this way each state must decide that it prefers the deal to fighting a war Fighting entails costs o Costs diminish the value of the expected war outcome to each state o Bargaining range the set of deals that both parties in a bargaining interaction prefer to the reversion outcome when the reversion outcome is war the bargaining range is the set of deals that both sides prefer to war Compellence and Deterrence Varieties of Coercive Bargaining Classification of threats whether they are intended to preserve or change the existing relationship between states o Compellence an effort to change the status quo through the
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