POLS 1101 Lecture 16 Outline of Last Lecture I The Appeals Procedure in the State and Federal Systems II Common Law and Legal Precedent III The Path of a Supreme Court Case IV Supreme Court Justices Ideology V Minority Rights versus Majority Rule VI Restraint versus Activism VII Politics of Judicial Appointments Outline of Current Lecture I Public Opinion in a Democratic System II Measuring Public Opinion A Early Attempts B Random Sampling C Possible Biases III Political Attitudes and Socialization IV Political Attitudes and Interests V Group Attachments VI The American Creed Current Lecture Public Opinion Background Effects and Considerations I Public Opinion in a Democratic System Public opinion collection of attitudes opinions and preferences of the general public What individuals think about certain issues like gun control etc Balance between being a trustee and a delegate Trustee chosen to do what they believe is right Delegate chosen to do what the people believe is right Multiple principals Impossible to be responsive to everyone Principle Agent Problem agents that we have hired are they responsive to what we say we want or responsive in our interests II Measuring Public Opinion A Early Attempts Survey work National magazines published straw polls send out ballots to readers to get a sense of what they were going to predict for an election didn t really reflect what the entire public wanted Since the 1940s voting intentions measured with random sampling o Polls are more accurate the closer to the election o 1936 literary digest sent out thousands of sample ballots asking who the people were going to vote for during the upcoming election o Results and what really happened were absolutely opposite not everybody sent a ballot back either o George Gallop ran a poll with 1500 people a few weeks before the election with random sampling nailed the results B Random Sampling 500 1 200 respondents in polls for presidential elections o Over 1 000 is preferred o 1600 margin of error you need another 2000 to decrease your margin of error Try to get the sample of respondents to mirror the population Use methods of random selection o Random Digit Dialing o National Selection Study Survey Conduct survey in person EXPENSIVE Best sample response though Every four years Margin of error is key to interpretation C Possible Biases Samples are biased when they do not reflect the population a Self selection people might hang up on you or not respond to your ballots b Phones and Random Digit Dialing o Machines that dial a number randomly that is valid then connects to operator land lines o Cell phones you have to have a person to actually dial in the numbers themselves c Non response Question wording priming potential attitude is associated with something positive negative and framing can create error by influencing answers III Political Attitudes and Socialization Parents political views strongly affect partisanship and ideology Partisanship and ideology tend to be persistent Friends or co workers can act as cue givers Major world events IV Political Attitudes and Interests Material interests are often correlated with political attitudes a Yet some people have attitudes that seemingly conflict with material interests b Altruism Do people make decisions based on rationality Often not a Habit of choosing the best choice among available options given one s interests and information V Group Attachments People who are irrational on an individual level are often rational on a collective level VI Group interest sometimes trumps individual interest Group leaders foster support of group interests The American Creed Most Americans have a set of widely shared values Most Americans think the political system works pretty well Most Americans believe in First Amendment rights