P SC 1113 1st Edition Lecture 15 Outline of Last Lecture I Opinion Socialization II Opinion Stability Outline of Current Lecture I The Survey Process II The Modern Media Current Lecture I The Survey Process A Problems 1 The failed Literary Digest survey of the 1990s i They successfully predicted the presidential election winner from 1920 1932 ii In 1936 they predicted Alf Landon republican will defeat Franklin Roosevelt democrat 57 43 a They sent 10 million postcards to Americans with addresses from phone books club and association rosters city directories lists of car owners and 2 2 million sent the postcards back b 4 flaws in their method 1 The sample was biased toward the wealthy and during the Depression 2 The postcards were sent too early couldn t capture late movement 3 The New Deal Coalition has solidified and were behind Roosevelt yet not sampled 4 Survey relied on self selection only the educated wealthy with strong opinions sent postcards back 2 The failures of 1948 a Polls predict Thomas Dewey will win but Harry Truman wins in an upset b Flaw once again polling stopped too early c Flaw using a quota system These notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor s lecture GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes not as a substitute d Quota system if we know 49 of the public are male and 51 are women we have to make sure 49 of our survey is male and 51 is female e The issue how do we find these 49 of men and 51 of women f The result future surveys focus on randomness 3 When was the last time you took a survey What was it about Why did you take it 4 What sorts of incentives could you convince you to take a survey you turned down B Modern Survey Challenges 1 Response rates declining 2 Shift to robotic polls turns people off 3 Rise of cell phones no autodialing area code matching issues 4 Internet as solution C The Slippery Slope when polls have other motivations 1 Begging Polls i They ask for a donation for example after you fill out a survey but they don t actually care about the survey 2 Pseudo Polls i TMZ for example Is Justin Bieber a bad role model for smoking pot Yes or No 3 Push Polls i The South Carolina 2000 Example a Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain for president if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child b Stirs up questions of race in key Southern primary c Plays on questions about McCain family adoption ii Not meant to gather legitimate data but to spread rumors and play on people s attitudes II The Modern Media A Usage 1 The question Where do you get most of your news
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