P SC 1113 1st Edition Lecture 15Outline of Last LectureI. Opinion SocializationII. Opinion StabilityOutline of Current LectureI. The Survey ProcessII. The Modern MediaCurrent LectureI. The Survey ProcessA. Problems1. The failed Literary Digest survey of the 1990si. They successfully predicted the presidential election winner from 1920-1932ii. In 1936, they predicted Alf Landon (republican) will defeat Franklin Roosevelt (democrat) 57-43a. They sent 10 million postcards to Americans with addresses from phone books, club and association rosters, city directories, lists of car owners and 2.2million sent the postcards backb. 4 flaws in their method(1) The sample was biased toward the wealthy (and during the Depression)(2) The postcards were sent too early (couldn’t capture late movement)(3) The “New Deal Coalition” has solidified (and were behind Roosevelt yet not sampled)(4) Survey relied on self-selection: only the educated wealthy with strong opinions sent postcards back2. The failures of 1948a. Polls predict Thomas Dewey will win, but Harry Truman wins in an upsetb. Flaw: once again, polling stopped too earlyc. Flaw: using a quota systemThese notes represent a detailed interpretation of the professor’s lecture. GradeBuddy is best used as a supplement to your own notes, not as a substitute.d. Quota system: if we know 49% of the public are male and 51% are women, we have to make sure 49% of our survey is male and 51% is femalee. The issue: how do we find these 49% of men and 51% of women?f. The result: future surveys focus on randomness3. When was the last time you took a survey? What was it about? Why did you take it?4. What sorts of incentives could you convince you to take a survey you turned down?B. Modern Survey Challenges1. Response rates declining2. Shift to robotic polls turns people off3. Rise of cell phones (no autodialing, area code matching issues)4. Internet as solution?C. The Slippery Slope: when polls have other motivations1. Begging Pollsi. They ask for a donation, for example, after you fill out a survey but they don’t actually care about the survey2. Pseudo Pollsi. TMZ, for example, “Is Justin Bieber a bad role model for smoking pot? Yes or No?”3. Push Pollsi. The South Carolina 2000 Examplea. “Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for John McCain for president if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?”b. Stirs up questions of race in key Southern primaryc. Plays on questions about McCain family adoptionii. Not meant to gather legitimate data but to spread rumors and play on people’s attitudesII. The Modern MediaA. Usage1. The question: Where do you get most of your
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