AN INTRODUCTION TO FOREIGN POLICY: 2 GOOD MODEL BY MORGAN & PALMER – GUEST LECTURETODAYS OUTLINE:Learning objective – Be able to identify theoretical motivations in current eventsForeign Policy portfolioModel AssumptionsSubstitutability- FOREIGN POLICY PORTFOLIOS:Major Areas of ConcentrationDefenseTradeHealth/DiseaseEnergyOthers?- COMMONALITIES OF ALL STATES (ASSUMPTIONS)States want to protect things they value and alter things they do not likeStates have preferences and it attempts to realize those preferences through actionsWHEN AND WHY DO STATES TAKE ACTIONExpected benefits of undertaking the action surpass the direct cost of the actionExpected benfits-NEOREALISM & THE IMPORTANCE OF SECURITYRealism and Neo-Realism ExploredAssumes that the goal of states is to maximize its security and the application of power politicsPower is most often associated with military powerImportance of systemic variablesBalance of power and Power Transition TheoryWhere do threats come from in these theoriesSECURITY DILEMMA – Actions taken by one state to increase its security may directly or indirectly pose threats to other statesLimitation in existing theories- ASSUMPTIONS OF 2 GOOD MODELStates take action for: Change and MaintenanceStates pursue goals through their foreign policies, but how many?Issue anything that can meet the following criteria1) Can have more than 1 value2) Actors have at least some influence over which value it obtains3) At least two actors have different preferences over the range of values4) Actors are aware of these things (Communication & Information)Every state is relatively unhappy with status quo on some issues and happy on othersAll efforts require resourcesAll states seek both change and maintenance at all times, no moral distinction b/t two effortsStatus Quo is dynamic, multi-dimensional and refers to a trend that is generally accepted to identify actor’s anticipationEXAMPLES:Israel’s attack on Egypt in 1967 (EX OF CHANGE)Japans attack on US in 1941 (EX OF CHANGE)International Criminal Court (EX OF MAINTENANCE)8.6 – LECTURE 19:NEGATIVE ADSSome of most memorable political ads have the qualities that Geer describesTURNING IN VS TURNING OUTMarkus priors argumentThe media increase peoples political information and involvementBUT due to the variety of media choices today (in contrast to 40 years ago), this effect varies a lot from person to personDifference b/t 40 years ago and last 20 years or soRelative Entertainment Preference (REP)How much people want entertainment from media, rather than newsFor people who strongly prefer entertainment to news (high REP) media has little beneficial political effect (they tune out)Prior also mentions that around 20% of people have “tuned in” in the articleThese people are news junkies who are very well-informedPrior seems to think this number is dangerously small, but 20% of Americans seems like a lotThat’s well over half the % of VEP that typically votes in primary electionsWhat do you think? Do you buy his argument? Can people actually tune in or tune out like he says?POLS206: AN INTRO TO FOREIGN POLICY 8.6/LECTURE 19AN INTRODUCTION TO FOREIGN POLICY: 2 GOOD MODEL BY MORGAN & PALMER – GUEST LECTURETODAYS OUTLINE:-Learning objective – Be able to identify theoretical motivations in current events-Foreign Policy portfolio-Model Assumptions-Substitutability - FOREIGN POLICY PORTFOLIOS:-Major Areas of ConcentrationoDefenseoTradeoHealth/Disease oEnergyoOthers?- COMMONALITIES OF ALL STATES (ASSUMPTIONS)-States want to protect things they value and alter things they do notlike-States have preferences and it attempts to realize those preferences through actions- WHEN AND WHY DO STATES TAKE ACTIONoExpected benefits of undertaking the action surpass the direct cost of the actionoExpected benfits-NEOREALISM & THE IMPORTANCE OF SECURITY-Realism and Neo-Realism ExploredoAssumes that the goal of states is to maximize its security and the application of power politicsPower is most often associated with military poweroImportance of systemic variablesoBalance of power and Power Transition Theory -Where do threats come from in these theoriesoSECURITY DILEMMA – Actions taken by one state to increase its security may directly or indirectly pose threats to other statesoLimitation in existing theories- ASSUMPTIONS OF 2 GOOD MODEL-States take action for: Change and Maintenance -States pursue goals through their foreign policies, but how many?oIssue anything that can meet the following criteria1) Can have more than 1 value2) Actors have at least some influence over which value it obtains3) At least two actors have different preferences over the range of values4) Actors are aware of these things (Communication & Information)-Every state is relatively unhappy with status quo on some issues and happy on others-All efforts require resources-All states seek both change and maintenance at all times, no moral distinction b/t two efforts-Status Quo is dynamic, multi-dimensional and refers to a trend that is generally accepted to identify actor’s anticipationoEXAMPLES:Israel’s attack on Egypt in 1967 (EX OF CHANGE)Japans attack on US in 1941 (EX OF CHANGE)International Criminal Court (EX OF MAINTENANCE)8.6 – LECTURE 19:NEGATIVE ADS-Some of most memorable political ads have the qualities that Geer describesTURNING IN VS TURNING OUT-Markus priors argument oThe media increase peoples political information and involvement oBUT due to the variety of media choices today (in contrast to 40 years ago), this effect varies a lot from person to personoDifference b/t 40 years ago and last 20 years or sooRelative Entertainment Preference (REP) How much people want entertainment from media, rather than newsoFor people who strongly prefer entertainment to news (high REP) media has little beneficial political effect (they tune out)oPrior also mentions that around 20% of people have “tuned in” in the articleoThese people are news junkies who are very well-informedoPrior seems to think this number is dangerously small, but 20% of Americans seems like a lotThat’s well over half the % of VEP that typically votes in primary electionsoWhat do you think? Do you buy his argument? Can people actually tune in or tune out like he