POLS206 AN INTRO TO FOREIGN POLICY 8 6 LECTURE 19 AN INTRODUCTION TO FOREIGN POLICY 2 GOOD MODEL BY MORGAN PALMER GUEST LECTURE TODAYS OUTLINE Learning objective Be able to identify theoretical motivations in current events Foreign Policy portfolio Model Assumptions Substitutability FOREIGN POLICY PORTFOLIOS Major Areas of Concentration o Defense o Trade o Health Disease o Energy o Others COMMONALITIES OF ALL STATES ASSUMPTIONS States want to protect things they value and alter things they do not like States have preferences and it attempts to realize those preferences through actions WHEN AND WHY DO STATES TAKE ACTION o Expected benefits of undertaking the action surpass the direct cost of the action o Expected benfits NEOREALISM THE IMPORTANCE OF SECURITY Realism and Neo Realism Explored o Assumes that the goal of states is to maximize its security and the application of power politics Power is most often associated with military power o Importance of systemic variables o Balance of power and Power Transition Theory Where do threats come from in these theories o SECURITY DILEMMA Actions taken by one state to increase its security may directly or indirectly pose threats to other states o Limitation in existing theories ASSUMPTIONS OF 2 GOOD MODEL States take action for Change and Maintenance States pursue goals through their foreign policies but how many o Issue anything that can meet the following criteria 1 Can have more than 1 value 2 Actors have at least some influence over which value it obtains 3 At least two actors have different preferences over the range of values 4 Actors are aware of these things Communication Information Every state is relatively unhappy with status quo on some issues and happy on others All efforts require resources All states seek both change and maintenance at all times no moral distinction b t two efforts Status Quo is dynamic multi dimensional and refers to a trend that is generally accepted to identify actor s anticipation o EXAMPLES Israel s attack on Egypt in 1967 EX OF CHANGE Japans attack on US in 1941 EX OF CHANGE International Criminal Court EX OF MAINTENANCE 8 6 LECTURE 19 NEGATIVE ADS Some of most memorable political ads have the qualities that Geer describes TURNING IN VS TURNING OUT Markus priors argument o The media increase peoples political information and involvement o BUT due to the variety of media choices today in contrast to 40 years ago this effect varies a lot from person to person o Difference b t 40 years ago and last 20 years or so o Relative Entertainment Preference REP How much people want entertainment from media rather than news o For people who strongly prefer entertainment to news high REP media has little beneficial political effect they tune out o Prior also mentions that around 20 of people have tuned in in the article o These people are news junkies who are very well informed o Prior seems to think this number is dangerously small but 20 of Americans seems like a lot That s well over half the of VEP that typically votes in primary elections o What do you think Do you buy his argument Can people actually tune in or tune out like he says 08 06 2013 08 06 2013
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