MASS POLARIZATIONWhat is Mass Polarization?What are arguments for/against Mass Polarization?Why might Mass Polarization matter for American Politics?Elite polarization:Republicans & Democrats are sharply divided by ideologyRepublicans consistently vote conservatively and Democrats consistently vote liberallyMC’s cluster around 2 ideological “poles” with very few middle clusterMass Polarization:The idea that the public or some significant portion of it is divided by ideology in a way similar to members of Congress, with most people clustered around liberal/conservative posititions and fewer moderates or people in the middleWhether Mass Polarization exists or not is a BIG debate among Political Scientists!Scholars generally fall into 2 camps:Those who agree with Fiorina and Those who agree with AbramowitzKNOW THESE NAMES AND WHAT EACH STANDS FOR ^^^KEY FIORINA POINTS:Mass polarization means the public is as divided as elitesThe “Public” is all adult Americans or sometimes ALL votersMass Polarization DOES NOT EXIST IN AMERICAMost people are ideologically moderateOnly appear polarized sometimes because they are forced to choose between extreme elites in electionsInstead, in last 20 years public has become better sorted, with liberals mostly identifying as democrats and conservative mostly identifying as (GOP) RepublicansKEY ABRAMOWITZS KEY POINTS:Mass Polarization means a large part of the public is divided in a manner similar to elites, though not quite as muchMass Polarization existsIdeological divisions in the public have been increasing for the last 20 yearsTHE “PUBLIC” MEANS VOTERS & THE POLITICALLY ACTIVE & INFORMEDTHE AMERICANS WHO MATTER, POLITICALLY SPEAKINGTHE MOST POLITICALLY ACTIVE SEGMENT OF THE PUBLIC IS POLARIZED LIKE ELITES, AND CONSTRAINS THE POLITICAL ACTIONS OF MEMBERS OF CONGRESS THROUGH PRIMARY ELECTIONS“TRUE” OR “PURE” INDEPENDENTS ARE A SMALL PART OF THE VOTING PUBLIC AND ARE LESS POLITICALLY ACTIVE THAN PARTISANS.WHY THE DEBATE MATTERSIf mass polarization exists:Strong, reciprocal link b/t elite and mass viewsPublic appreciates political choices presented by elitesPolitically active Americans are dividedDifficult for elites to resolve contentious political problemsPublic approval of GOVT has lower ceilings and higher floorIf mass polarization DOESN’T EXIST:Disconnect b/t elites and mass publicOnly the views of small minority of voters are representedMost Americans are middle of the roadElites only need to moderate to solve political problemsSupport & trust in GOVT (trust is especially low today) will increases when GOVT moderatesRESOLVING THE DEBATE:Why is the debate not resolved? Both sides argue past each otherTo make progress in political science, competing arguments usually must accept the same basic assumptions, Fiorinas definition of mass polarization is different from Abramowitz’sBoth are correct within the context of their assumptionsWhos right?MY STRONGLY HELD OPINION: Abramowitz better evidence theory, makes no senseMass Polarization existsCAUSES OF MASS POLARIZATION5 potential causes of Mass Polarization:1) Elites Polarizing:1950’s -> DEMS & GOPS (REP) in Congress overlapped ideologically much more than today; Many liberal in GOP (REP), LOTS OF CONSERVATIVE DEMOCRATSU.S. PUBLIC IN 1950’s -> Perceived little difference b/t parties on major political issues; Voting not driven as much by ideology and issue positions as it is todayDEM & GOP (REP) elites are polarizing along ideological lines beginning in the mid-1960sTHIS TOOK AWHILEEX: FOR 1ST 5 YEARS AS STATE LEGISLATOR, UNTIL 1989, RICK PERRY WAS A CONSERVATIVE DEMOCRATELITE POLARIZATION IN CONGRESS VERY NOTICEABLY BY EARLY 1990SMeanwhile, following polarization among elites:Public slowly perceived these differences and re-sorted into the parties by ideologyThis took a long time, perhaps until early/mid 1990sIn addition, Partisans in public convert to polarized issue positions of their party’s elite2) Participatory primaries & role of activists:Beginning in early 1970s -> Many states started to adopt primary elections for Presidential candidatesPRIMARY ELECTIONS REQUIRE CANDIDATES TO MOBILIZE SUPPORT OF STRONG PARTISANS TO WINAs a result -> Primary candidates start taking ideologically extreme positions; To appeal to the motivated partisans who vote in primariesModeration doesn’t always rally people, Extremist views WILL!!!!!Partisan activities aren’t only mobilized by primary electionsBut also converted to more extreme positions by hearing the ideological messages of their party defendedElite forced to be more extreme by primary activists send more extreme messages to non-activists as welLeading to sorting and/or polarization among non-activistsCreating a feedback loop3) Fragmentation of the media:MID-1950s to 1980s -> Only 3 TV Networks (ABC,NBC, & CBS)They all showed news at basically the same timesPeople watched news then that today would choose not toThe news they received was designed for broad audience, not nearly as overtly partisanDURING THIS PERIOD -> Newspapers were popular, & also marketed to a broad audience; most people received same information; That info was probably less ideologically slanted (either way) than it is today!With widespread adoption of cable television & creation of CNN & FOX in the 1980sMedia began to fragment as people gained more choicesMARKUS PRIOR (2007) -> With cable TV (& THEN INTERNET), people could now avoid the news altogether and watch something elseAlso, with more choice, people could select from a variety of newsFOR ANY NUMBER OF REASONS, INCLUDING IDEOLOGY OR PARTISANSHIPINTERNET, FACEBOOK, TWITTER, ETC EXACERBATE SELF-SELECTIONNOW -> DEM Liberals & GOP (REP) Conservatives in public receive:Different information and political arguments and as much as they wantWhich polarizes them furtherThose uninterested in politics can ignore it all4) The rise of unelected opinion leaders:SINCE 1950s -> Number of Vocal, Unelected political actors who influence U.S. PoliticsInterest Groups (AARP,NRA):Mobilize blocs of supporters around political causesPromote particular viewpoints for ideological and financial gainThey also constrain CongressThink tanks (American Enterprise Institute, Cato Institue) -> Serve as policy supports and counterweights to part elitesPolitical talk show hosts (Rush Limbaugh, Bill Maher) Promote a particular ideologyCan criticize party elites who stray away from the party lineAll these opinion leaders