POLS206 7 30 LECTURE 15 PRIMARY ELECTIONS I mentioned earlier that Party Identification PID is not a useful heuristic in primary elections What are Primary Elections o Elections among only 1 partys candidate that take place prior to the general all candidate election o Primaries decide who will be a particular partys candidate for an office in a general election o Often only Americans who are registered to vote as a particular party can vote in that partys primary election EX only americans who are registered to vote as democrats can vote in the Democratic primary election for president Senate governor TYPES OF PRIMARIES o Closed Primaries Only registered partisans of that party FL o Semi Closed Primaries Registered Partisans of that party can vote and independents can choose one primary to vote in MA o Open Primaries Any voter can vote in 1 primary election of his her choice AL o Jungle Primary All candidates run in 1 primary with the top 2 of any party competing in the general LA o TX Technically a closed primary in practice open any registered voter may vote in the primary of any single party as long as they have not voted in the primary of another party Americans who tend to vote in primaries primary voters are different from the larger group of Americans who tend to vote in general election PRIMARY VOTERS More ideological and issue oriented ideologically extreme and politically active than voters in general elections Candidates have incentives to cater to the views of primary voters often do This makes candidates more liberal or conservative than they might otherwise be It also clarifies what candidates stand for to the general electorate for general election Candidate incentives to cater to primary voter views make candidates more liberal FOR DEMS or conservative FOR REPUBLICANS GOP o SIDE NOTE REPUBLICAN PARTY ALSO REFERRED TO IN POPULAR TERMINOLOGY AS THE GOP GRAND OLD PARTY It also clarifies what candidates stand for to the general electorate for general election o These are valuable functions of primaries Presidential Primary Elections o Scheduled jointly b t RNC REP NATIONAL COMMITTEE or DNC DEM NATIONAL COMMITTEE States o Presidential primaries proceed on a state by state basis every 4 years o Historically IA NH are the 1st two presidential primary states o BUT OTHER STATES WOULD LIKE TO BE 1st PARTY FRONTLOADING States have strong incentives to move their primaries to early dates so that candidates will pay attention to them BOTH the DNC RNC have attempted to punish states for setting primary dates too early Thus the continued importance of IA NH to the Presidential nomination process o Though IA NH don t have to be first People often call for reforms of primary process o It may happen in future side note I STRONGLY FAVOR THIS PARTISANSHIP ELECTIONS Partisanship is THE most important factor for who you will vote for o If you can only pick one variable to predict who someone will vote vote PICK PARTISANSHIP In recent Presidential elections candidates get the votes of 85 90 of more of their partisans Partisanships not quite as strong a predictor in House or Senate elections but still very strong Partisanship is not just Republican Democrat or Independent Political scientists study party ID PID in terms of a 7 point scale How do political scientist measure PID on surveys and create this scale o WITH VARIATIONS OF 3 QUESTIONS Generally speaking Strong DEMS GOP extremely likely to vote for their party Weak Dems GOP Leaners STILL likely to vote for their party In NON Presidential year elections Republicans often turnout at a somewhat higher rate than Democrats Indies who lean generally behave like weak Partisans Differences b t leaners and weak partisans still not fully understood Pure or True independents are those who don t lean toward a party o They generally have low levels of political information o are far less likely to vote than other PID categories Most independents about 75 are leaners o And they behave like weak partisans usually voting for their party Only about 25 of independents are pure and they makeup less than 10 of VEP o THUS there is no enormous politically active group in the electorate that is actually undecided b t the parties o This is a common misconception you may hear from old media Conservative are the largest ideological group in American Politics o American public 40 conservative o DEMOCRATS ARE THE LARGEST PARTISANSHIP Most conservative are GOP most Liberals are DEMs BUT many moderates are DEMS which make Democrats the largest partisan group Partisan Breakdown generally for last 10years o Roughly 30 R 34 D 36 INDEPENDENT SO currently there are more Democrats than Republicans in America BUT to win each party has to win some of those independents leaners pures Or get some of the other partys partisans to swtich parties or vote for them BUT this is hard to do What causes PID to slowly change o RARELY HAPPENS BIG LIFE EVENTS o Things like losing finding religions getting married having raising children DRAMATIC personal change in views of President and Parties things that cause changes in ideology or even worldview EX DO absolute and wrong exist and what determines them Why does Partisanship influence vote choice o Partisanship is BOTH a social identity and ideology o Partisanship is social identity that involves conflict LIKE BEING ON A TEAM WHERE YOU ONLY EVER PLAY AGAINST ONE OTHER TEAM BITTER RIVALRY ITS TEXAS A M VS TU IN EVERY GAME THERE ARE NO OTHER TEAMS PID IS PSYCHOLOGICALLY PART OF WHO YOU ARE PID DETERMINED BY SOCIAL GROUP o GROUPS LIKE MARITAL STATUS RELIGION EDUCATION INCOME GENDER ID RACE ID AGE UNION MEMBERSHIP EX MOST AMERICANS WHO ARE MORMONS ARE IDENTIFIED AS REPUBLICANS MITT ROMNEY PID as an ideology o Contemporary PID represents your ideology and issue positions o Evidence o GOP 71 conservative 23 moderate 4 liberal o Independents 36 conservative 41 moderate 19 liberal o Dems 20 conservative 38 moderate 39 liberal Small of each group has no opinion hence these don t sum up to 100 o Relationship b t PID and Ideology is very strong and has strengthened over time BECAUSE PID is o Part of who you are social identity o Strongly related to policy and issue preferences ideology PID strongly effects how you vote HOW MUCH DO AMERICANS KNOW ABOUT POLITICS As I mentioned earlier PID is a very heuristic for voting BUT for Americans to participate effectively in elections we probably need to have some basic knowledge about politics How