PRIMARY ELECTIONSI mentioned earlier that Party Identification (PID) is not a useful heuristic in primary electionsWhat are Primary Elections?Elections among only 1 partys candidate that take place prior to the general, all candidate electionPrimaries decide who will be a particular partys candidate for an office in a general electionOften, only Americans who are registered to vote as a particular party can vote in that partys primary electionEX: only americans who are registered to vote as democrats can vote in the Democratic primary election for president, Senate, governorTYPES OF PRIMARIES:Closed Primaries: Only registered partisans of that party (FL)Semi-Closed Primaries: Registered Partisans of that party can vote and independents can choose one primary to vote in (MA)Open Primaries: Any voter can vote in 1 primary election of his/her choice (AL)Jungle Primary: All candidates run in 1 primary, with the top 2 of any party competing in the general (LA)TX: Technically a closed primary, in practice open (any registered voter may vote in the primary of any single party, as long as they have not voted in the primary of another party)Americans who tend to vote in primaries (primary voters) are different from the larger group of Americans who tend to vote in general electionPRIMARY VOTERS: More ideological and issue-oriented, ideologically extreme, and politically active than voters in general electionsCandidates have incentives to cater to the views of primary voters & often doThis makes candidates more liberal or conservative than they might otherwise beIt also clarifies what candidates stand for to the general electorate for general electionCandidate incentives to cater to primary voter views make candidates more liberal (FOR DEMS) or conservative (FOR REPUBLICANS/GOP)SIDE NOTE: REPUBLICAN PARTY ALSO REFERRED TO IN POPULAR TERMINOLOGY AS THE “GOP” GRAND OLD PARTYIt also clarifies what candidates stand for to the general electorate for general electionThese are valuable functions of primariesPresidential Primary Elections:Scheduled jointly b/t RNC (REP NATIONAL COMMITTEE) or DNC (DEM NATIONAL COMMITTEE) & StatesPresidential primaries proceed on a state-by-state basis every 4 yearsHistorically, IA & NH are the 1st two presidential primary statesBUT OTHER STATES WOULD LIKE TO BE 1st PARTYFRONTLOADING: States have strong incentives to move their primaries to early dates so that candidates will pay attention to themBOTH the DNC & RNC have attempted to punish states for setting primary dates too earlyThus, the continued importance of IA & NH to the Presidential nomination process:Though IA & NH don’t have to be firstPeople often call for reforms of primary processIt may happen in future (side note: I STRONGLY FAVOR THIS)PARTISANSHIP & ELECTIONSPartisanship is THE most important factor for who you will vote forIf you can only pick one variable to predict who someone will vote vote, PICK PARTISANSHIPIn recent Presidential elections, candidates get the votes of 85-90% of more of their partisansPartisanships not quite as strong a predictor in House or Senate elections, but still very strongPartisanship is not just Republican, Democrat, or IndependentPolitical scientists study party ID (PID) in terms of a 7 point scale: ………….How do political scientist measure PID on surveys and create this scale?WITH VARIATIONS OF 3 QUESTIONS:“Generally speaking………………….Strong DEMS/GOP extremely likely to vote for their partyWeak Dems/GOP & Leaners STILL likely to vote for their partyIn NON-Presidential year elections, Republicans often turnout at a somewhat higher rate than DemocratsIndies who lean generally behave like weak PartisansDifferences b/t leaners and weak partisans still not fully understoodPure, or True, independents are those who don’t lean toward a partyThey generally have low levels of political information& are far less likely to vote than other PID categoriesMost independents (about 75%) are leaners:And they behave like weak partisans, usually voting for their partyOnly about 25% of independents are pure and they makeup less than 10% of VEPTHUS, there is no enormous, politically active group in the electorate that is actually undecided b/t the partiesThis is a common misconception you may hear from old mediaConservative are the largest ideological group in American PoliticsAmerican public40% conservative,DEMOCRATS ARE THE LARGEST PARTISANSHIP!!Most conservative are GOP, most Liberals are DEMsBUT many moderates are DEMS which make Democrats the largest partisan groupPartisan Breakdown generally for last 10yearsRoughly 30% R & 34% D & 36% INDEPENDENTSO currently, there are more Democrats than Republicans in AmericaBUT to win each party has to win some of those independents (leaners & pures)Or get some of the other partys partisans to swtich parties or vote for themBUT this is hard to doWhat causes PID to slowly change?RARELY HAPPENSBIG LIFE EVENTS:Things like losing/finding religions, getting married, having/raising children, DRAMATIC personal change in views of President and Parties, things that cause changes in ideology or even worldview (EX-> DO absolute and wrong exist and what determines them?)Why does Partisanship influence vote choice?Partisanship is BOTH a social identity and ideologyPartisanship is social identity that involves conflict:LIKE BEING ON A TEAM WHERE YOU ONLY EVER PLAY AGAINST ONE OTHER TEAM (BITTER RIVALRY)ITS TEXAS A&M VS TU IN EVERY GAME, & THERE ARE NO OTHER TEAMSPID IS PSYCHOLOGICALLY PART OF WHO YOU AREPID DETERMINED BY SOCIAL GROUPGROUPS LIKE MARITAL STATUS, RELIGION, EDUCATION, INCOME, GENDER ID, RACE ID, AGE, UNION MEMBERSHIPEX: MOST AMERICANS WHO ARE MORMONS ARE IDENTIFIED AS REPUBLICANS (MITT ROMNEY)PID as an ideology:Contemporary PID represents your ideology and issue positionsEvidenceGOP: 71% conservative, 23% moderate, 4% liberalIndependents: 36% conservative, 41% moderate, 19% liberalDems: 20% conservative, 38% moderate, 39% liberalSmall % of each group has no opinion, hence these don’t sum up to 100%Relationship b/t PID and Ideology is very strong, and has strengthened over timeBECAUSE PID is:Part of who you are (social identity)Strongly related to policy and issue preferences (ideology)PID strongly effects how you vote!HOW MUCH DO AMERICANS KNOW ABOUT POLITICS?As I mentioned earlier, PID is a very heuristic for votingBUT for Americans to participate effectively in elections, we probably need to have some basic