WHY DO VOTING AND ELECTIONS MATTER?Elections are a way to produce representative govtElections make govt legitElections link public opinion with public policyParticipation builds civic education and allegianceVoting determines national, state, and local policiesIncluding those that affect YOUVOTER TURNOUTThe percentage of Americans who voted in a given election2 ways of measuring voter turnout1) % of Voting-Age population (VAP)NUMBER OF VOTES CAST; NO OF AMERICANS 18+ (being 18 doesn’t mean youre eligible)2) % of Voting-Eligible population (VEP)NUMBER OF VOTES CAST; NUMBER OF AMERICANS ELIGIBLE TO VOTEWhat determines the difference between VAP AND VEP:Historically, Some structure/legal factors:15th amendment (1870) – All men right to vote19th amendment (1920) – All women too26th amendment (1971) – Lowered voting age to 18Today some people in America legally cant vote:Youth under 18People who aren’t American citizens:Legal immigrants who are permanent residents (not yet full citizens), people on student visas, illegal immigrants, etcIndividuals serving time in prisonReleased felons crimes in some states depending on the crime committedAccounting for noncitizens and disenfranchised felons (among others)The % of U.S. that votes in presidential elections has remained roughly constant over timeTURNOUT IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONDespite what some people will tell you, Voter turnout is NOT in Long-Term declineVoter Turnout in Presidential election is roughly stable during post WorldWar2 EraWith the exception of 2012, it has been rising since 1996VOTER REGISTRATIONRegistration:Voting is a two-step process, you must register to voteOriginally intended in early 20th century as a reform to curb voter fraud (repeat voting, voting by people who don’t exist)Voter registration raises the costs of voting, and reduces turnoutBUT Voter Fraud was and is a serious problem, especially in competitive electionsNational Voter Registration Act of 1993 (also known as Moter Voter Act) :Requires state Govts to allow eligible-people to register to vote when they apply for or renew their driver licenses or apply for various welfare programsState requirements on how easy or difficult it is to vote are tangle up in Partisan politics:Any federal or state reforms to voter registration that have the effect of increasing or decreasing turnout, regardless of intent, will almost certainly be politically divisiveWHY DO PEOPLE VOTE?Since voter turnout varies from election to election, what determines whether Americans vote or not?THE RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY OF VOTING:V= (P*B)- C+DValue From votingProbability of being Pivotal voter * Difference in Benefits you receive from two candidatesMINUS (-) , Costs of voting PLUS(+) Participatory benefits of voting (like Sense of Duty)YOU VOTE IF V IS POSITIVE AND DON’T IF IT IS NEGATIVEThis theory explains why many people vote, and why many don’t voteThis theory has shaped decades of research:Theory Encompasses:Partisanship, Other kinds of participation, political knowledge, education, campaign affects polarizationThe P and B terms change from election to electionHow does the probability of being decisive change in different elections?What kinds of elections might have a higher P term?Does the size of the potential electorate matter?College Station Election VS National ElectionCompetitiveness of candidates affects perceived P too:WHY?1960: KENNEDY VS NIXON: HIGH TURNOUT1996: CLINTON VS DOLE: LOW TURNOUTWhat kinds of BENEFITS can your receive from your candidate winning?EX: Preferred policies, Tax Cuts, Welfare Benefits, Pro-Life/Pro-ChoiceAnother kind of benefit: Pork/PatronageMembers of Congress target pork to active voter parts of districts for best ROI (RETURN ON INVESTMENT)EX: Imagine that youre a strong democrat/republican youre voting in an election where the two candidates aren’t that different, so whoever wins the policies will be similar so benefits will be similar as well, VICE VERSAWhat kinds of COSTS of voting are there?EX: Time and opportunity costs, Information costs (it might take time to find out who you want to vote for, to learn the policies of candidates)Partisan elections have lower information costs than Non-Partisan ones WHY?You don’t have to do as much research in Partisan elections bc when youre in doubt you can pick the partisan, but in comparison, in Non-Partisan elections you would have to research what the offices, legislatures and candidates do and what their policies are!Non-Partisan elections (no party name attatched): Nebraska state legislatures, often judicial elections, some local officesIF COSTS OUTWEIGH BENEFITS YOU PROBABLY WONT VOTE!RAIN AND SNOW ARE REAL COSTSIn North Dakota you can just show up register and vote right then and there on the same day (low cost – because its more convenient for the public)Participatory Benefits include: CIVIC DUTY (D) SatisfactionAffirming allegiance to our political systemSupporting your candidate/party/term (STAND UP & BE COUNTED!)Enjoying act of voting (getting a cookie, an “I VOTED” sticker, giving their opinion to the GOVT)Social Benefits (going with friends to vote, going to election party with other supporters)Social pressure (Boss gives you the day off)As part of “THE RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY OF VOTING” what factors might influence whether Americans turnout to vote or not?Contextual factors specific to a particular electionContextual Factors:Negative Campaigning (talking negatively about your opponent, ex- > SWIFT AD CAMPAIGN AGAINST JOHN KERRY)Media CoverageCampaign SpendingActual/Perceived Competitiveness of electionActual/Perceived importance of electionIndividuals factors that vary from person to personIndividual Factors:Voting more likely with higher incomeVoting more likely with more education (the more education people have the more informed people are)Homeowners more likely to voteEfficacy (when you think that your opinion matters, youre more likely to vote)Strong PartisanshipMobilization (If a party is really smart they may mobilize/organize rides for supporters so they don’t have to use their own gas)WHAT DETERMINES WHO PEOPLE VOTE FOR?Some people turn out to vote and others don’tWhat determines what people vote for?Americans have limited time to spend figuring out who to vote for:We do other things besides follow politics!So how do we figure out who to vote for without spending too much time and effortCognitive ShortcutsResearch suggests that most people