POLS206 7 29 LECTURE 14 WHY DO VOTING AND ELECTIONS MATTER Elections are a way to produce representative govt Elections make govt legit Elections link public opinion with public policy Participation builds civic education and allegiance Voting determines national state and local policies o Including those that affect YOU VOTER TURNOUT The percentage of Americans who voted in a given election 2 ways of measuring voter turnout o 1 of Voting Age population VAP NUMBER OF VOTES CAST NO OF AMERICANS 18 being 18 doesn t mean youre eligible o 2 of Voting Eligible population VEP NUMBER OF VOTES CAST NUMBER OF AMERICANS ELIGIBLE TO VOTE o What determines the difference between VAP AND VEP Historically Some structure legal factors 15th amendment 1870 All men right to vote 19th amendment 1920 All women too 26th amendment 1971 Lowered voting age to 18 Today some people in America legally cant vote o Youth under 18 o People who aren t American citizens Legal immigrants who are permanent residents not yet full citizens people on student visas illegal immigrants etc o Individuals serving time in prison o Released felons crimes in some states depending on the crime committed Accounting for noncitizens and disenfranchised felons among others o The of U S that votes in presidential elections has remained roughly constant over time TURNOUT IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Despite what some people will tell you Voter turnout is NOT in LongTerm decline Voter Turnout in Presidential election is roughly stable during post WorldWar2 Era With the exception of 2012 it has been rising since 1996 VOTER REGISTRATION Registration o Voting is a two step process you must register to vote o Originally intended in early 20th century as a reform to curb voter fraud repeat voting voting by people who don t exist o Voter registration raises the costs of voting and reduces turnout o BUT Voter Fraud was and is a serious problem especially in competitive elections National Voter Registration Act of 1993 also known as Moter Voter Act o Requires state Govts to allow eligible people to register to vote when they apply for or renew their driver licenses or apply for various welfare programs State requirements on how easy or difficult it is to vote are tangle up in Partisan politics o Any federal or state reforms to voter registration that have the effect of increasing or decreasing turnout regardless of intent will almost certainly be politically divisive WHY DO PEOPLE VOTE o Since voter turnout varies from election to election what determines whether Americans vote or not o THE RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY OF VOTING V P B C D o o o o o o o o Value From voting Probability of being Pivotal voter Difference in Benefits you receive from two candidates MINUS Costs of voting PLUS Participatory benefits of voting like Sense of Duty YOU VOTE IF V IS POSITIVE AND DON T IF IT IS NEGATIVE This theory explains why many people vote and why many don t vote This theory has shaped decades of research Theory Encompasses Partisanship Other kinds of participation political knowledge education campaign affects polarization The P and B terms change from election to election How does the probability of being decisive change in different elections What kinds of elections might have a higher P term Does the size of the potential electorate matter College Station Election VS National Election Competitiveness of candidates affects perceived P too WHY 1960 KENNEDY VS NIXON HIGH TURNOUT 1996 CLINTON VS DOLE LOW TURNOUT What kinds of BENEFITS can your receive from your candidate winning EX Preferred policies Tax Cuts Welfare Benefits ProLife Pro Choice Another kind of benefit Pork Patronage Members of Congress target pork to active voter parts of districts for best ROI RETURN ON INVESTMENT EX Imagine that youre a strong democrat republican youre voting in an election where the two candidates aren t that different so whoever wins the policies will be similar so benefits will be similar as well VICE VERSA o What kinds of COSTS of voting are there EX Time and opportunity costs Information costs it might take time to find out who you want to vote for to learn the policies of candidates Partisan elections have lower information costs than Non Partisan ones WHY You don t have to do as much research in Partisan elections bc when youre in doubt you can pick the partisan but in comparison in Non Partisan elections you would have to research what the offices legislatures and candidates do and what their policies are Non Partisan elections no party name attatched Nebraska state legislatures often judicial elections some local offices o IF COSTS OUTWEIGH BENEFITS YOU PROBABLY WONT VOTE RAIN AND SNOW ARE REAL COSTS In North Dakota you can just show up register and vote right then and there on the same day low cost because its more convenient for the public o Participatory Benefits include CIVIC DUTY D Satisfaction Affirming allegiance to our political system Supporting your candidate party term STAND UP BE COUNTED Enjoying act of voting getting a cookie an I VOTED sticker giving their opinion to the GOVT Social Benefits going with friends to vote going to election party with other supporters Social pressure Boss gives you the day off As part of THE RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY OF VOTING what factors might influence whether Americans turnout to vote or not o Contextual factors specific to a particular election Contextual Factors Negative Campaigning talking negatively about your opponent ex SWIFT AD CAMPAIGN AGAINST JOHN KERRY Media Coverage Campaign Spending Actual Perceived Competitiveness of election Actual Perceived importance of election o Individuals factors that vary from person to person Individual Factors Voting more likely with higher income Voting more likely with more education the more education people have the more informed people are Homeowners more likely to vote Efficacy when you think that your opinion matters youre more likely to vote Strong Partisanship Mobilization If a party is really smart they may mobilize organize rides for supporters so they don t have to use their own gas WHAT DETERMINES WHO PEOPLE VOTE FOR Some people turn out to vote and others don t What determines what people vote for o Americans have limited time to spend figuring out who to vote for o We do other things besides follow politics So how do we figure out who to vote for without spending too much time and effort o Cognitive Shortcuts Research suggests that most people 70 80 vote the way