POLS206 8 2 LECTURE 17 WHAT IS POLLING Based on the polls who did you think was going to win the Presidential election Polling is Surveying a variety of Americans to gain a snapshot of what public opinion is on candidates thoughts and issues at a particular point in time A poll only reflects opinion at the time it was done Polling uses a sample of the population as a microcosm of a larger population o How Through representative samples and weighting Representative Sample A sample that accurately reflects the demographic characteristics of the target population It can be difficult to get a representative sample just through survey queries Response rates for telephone surveys 10 20 Response rates have gone down a lot over time even in last 10 15 years How do Pollsters still get Representative Samples WEIGHTING Weighting is using the of demographics in the population often using the census to fix the effects of skewed demographics in sample through corrective multiplication EX of Weighting To get the actual views of the county Multiply each male respondent by 2 3 2 3 75 50 and each female respondent by 2 2 25 50 WHOSE OPINION COUNTS Different groups want different kinds of populations opinions The desired target population matters Many non academic surveys looks at 3 different groups o ALL ADULTS SURVEYS OF Desirable for getting the opinions of the general American population Less useful for predicting explaining elections All adults include some people who cant vote illegal immigrants felons etc Also includes people who wont or probably wont vote low knowledge not registered For weighting its easy to compare samples of all adults to the census Samples of all adults are less likely to have defined preferences on complex issues o REGISTERED VOTERS SURVEYS OF Include primarily the opinions of people who are politically consequential More useful for predicting explaining elections than all adults Registered Voters is still a defined target population Can be compared to state voter polls and pollster lists Can be weighted according to them These surveys still include many people who wont vote o LIKELY VOTERS SURVERYS OF Get the opinions of the most politically important people for elections Are the BEST for predicting explaining elections BUT are NOT a defined population Pollsters have to apply a likely voter screen to determine who is likely to vote Survey researchers disagree about best way to screen Surveys of likely voters are MUCH harder to weight b c there is no defined population of likely voters The closer a poll is to election day the more the population of likely voters looks like registered voters b c registered voters are mobilized by politicians and interest groups over the course of campaigns The further away from Election Day a poll is the LESS the population of likely voters looks like registered voters To weight surveys of likely voters Pollsters have to make assumptions about the demographics of voters on Election Day How do Pollsters make these assumptions o THEY USE The demographic turnout of last presidential election Counts of registered voters Measures of demographic group election enthusiasm based on survey questions how enthusiastic are you this elections to vote compared to last election Also when they make assumptions about voter demographics to be weight survey samples of likely voters pollsters also make assumptions about the PID breakdown of likely voters o As in what of voters on election day will identify as democrat what turnout advantage is this over the Republican voters o EX If 37 of Voters ID as dem and 33 ID as rep and 31 ID as Independent this would be a 4 percentage point advantage for Democrats o Democrats have averaged roughly around 3 to 4 percentage point advantage in the last 5 6 presidential elections POLLING AND THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Pollsters made WILDY different assumptions about PID and turnout and this led to EXTENSIVE variations in poll support or Romney and Obama o Assumptions I saw ranged from R 1 Advantage to D 16 Advantage WHEN IT WAS ACTUALLY D 6 ADVANTAGE o This was very FRUSTRATING Pollster assumptions about turnout generally fell in 2 camps o Those who thought PID turnout would give Dems an advantage like 2008 D 7 or better o Those who thought PID turnout would give dems considerably less advantage than 2008 D 5 or less Actual voter breakdown in 2012 by PID D 6 BOTH groups were off but b c 1st group was more right they were correct in predicting an Obama win REASONS why Pollsters who assumed more of a democratic advantage were right o Obamas GOVT operation was better than expected o Romneys GOVT operation was much worse than expected o Republicans didn t have the enthusiasm advantage that early polling found especially in key swing states HOUSE EFFECTS A tendency of a particular polling companies OR HOUSES HENCE THE TERM polls to skew a particular direction These are largely determined by variations in survey methodology including likely voter screens OFTEN A HOUSE effect might be a slight skew toward the DEMS or GOP REP but tend to have more variation over time than other companies polls The existence of House Effects is the 1 reason that it is IMPORTANT o To compare same pollsters polls over time o To Aggregate poll results Otherwise the knowledge that you gain from any single poll or company s polls can be misleading GOOD SOCIAL SCIENCE You would always rather have more data than less and data over time rather than just a single point KINDS OF POLLS Straw polls pseudo polls The survey sample is determined by whoever self selects in o EX TEXT CALL in now to give your opinion POPULAR ON AMERICAN IDOL o Often presented as a scientific representation of a more general population but NOT o What these polls do is called SELECTING on your DEPENDENT VARIABLE In the case of Straw polls Pseudo Polls they reportedly represent the opinions of adults or people who watched a political debate or some other group but in actuality they represent the people who EXIT POLLS o Surveys conducted as people as leaving their polling place on election day o AN interviewer approaches people every 10th person for example and asks them to participate o Results based on the people who responds to an interviewers approach o PROBLEMS WITH EXIT POLLS Voters may not be sampled randomly approaching every 10th person isn t always done correctly interviewers may be less likely to approach certain people Voters do not vote at random times some kinds