GEOG 4712: Political GeographyLecture 18: Civil Wars + Failed Statesoutline1) Failed states2) Research topics3) Civil wars4) Influential factors5) Geographic approaches6) Resource wars7) Body counts8) Tentative conclusionsFailed States: LocationsFailed StatesFailed State: Indicators of Instabilitywww.foreignpolicy.comWhat people study1) Onset!(Fearon!&!Laitin! 2003; Hegre!et!al.!2001!)2) Location!(Buhaug!&!Gates!2002)3) Duration!(Elbadawi!&!Sambanis!2002)4) Termination/Outcome!(DeRuen!&!Sobek!2004)! 5) Type!of!settlement!(Quackenbush!&!Venteicher!2008)! 6) Type!of!war!(onset)!(Reynal‐Querol!2002)Civil War1) COW!(Singer!&!Small!1984)! 1,000!battle!deaths,!Gov/Rebel,!5%!each!!!!(Data!dated!back!to!1816,!not!necessarily!civil)2) PRIO/UCDP!(Gleditsch!et!al.!2002)1,000!!25!battle!deaths,!Gov/Rebel,!5%!each(1947-2007,!fourth!release!now!available)3) ACLED!(Raleigh!et!al.! 2009)! 1,000!battle!deaths,!Gov/Rebel,!5%!eachInfluential Factors1) Resources"" ʻLootableʼ‐! increase!risk!of!initiation Oil!revenues!‐! increase!incentive!for!state!capture2) Governance Illiberal!democracies!at!risk Corruption/legitimacy of aid, trade, distribution3) IncomeConflict!reduces!development;Lower!income!increases!risk! of!democracy4) Social"diversity"(Ethnic/national/religious)Diversity!reduces!risk;Islam!does!not!have!bloody innardsGeographyREALLY!REALLY!BAD!‐‐!The!index!of!animist!diversity!captures!the! number!of!followers!of! animist!cults!in!each!country!!(Reynal‐Querol!2002!)BAD!‐‐! Forest!cover!hinders!rebels!,!while!mountain!cover!tends!to!help!rebels(DeRouen!&!Sobek!2004)O.K.!‐‐!large!number!of! studies!find!contiguity!to!be!highly!associated!with!the!presence!of!conflict,!so!it!is!important! to!control!for!its!possible!confounding!impact.We!classify!as!contiguous!those!dyads!that!are!contiguous!by!land!or!separatedby!150!miles!or!less!of! water (Quackenbush!&!Venteicher!2008!) GOOD!‐‐This!review!has!stressed!the!impossibility!of!bounding!the! study!of!civil!wars!to!the!legally‐defined!territorial!limits!of!the!country!in!question.!With!the!advent!of!transnational!violence!in!the!form!of!potentially!ubiquitous!terrorism,!the!lines!between!national,!international,!transnational!and!subnational!have!blurred!irrevocably.!Scales,!in!effect!have!become!more!malleable!and!their!specific!meanings!change!from!region!to!region.That!said,!it!is!also!evident!that!most!violence!will!continnue!to!be!found!in!the!world poorest! region(OʼLoughlin!&!Raleigh!2008!(study!of!violence!+!porous!borders!via!sub‐state!scale!data)Resource Wars: 1674 vs. 2004……Or, Evelyn vs. Le BillonGeographies of Resource ConflictLe Billon, p. 16Body CountsConclusions1) Definitions!matter 2) Do!not!fall!into!the!territorial!trap3) Space/place!matter4) The!conflict!trap5)
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