1Post 9-11 Geopolitics“In the counsels of Government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the Military Industrial Complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced Power exists, and will persist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes.”- President Dwight Eisenhower, January 1961Geopolitics Review1. Mahan, Mackinder, Ratzel, Kjellen, Haushofer2. Kennan, Truman, Spykman, Cline, Cohen• Two paradigms3. Post-Cold War (1991 – 9-11-2001)23. Post-Cold War geopolitics (cont.)Competing geopolitical codes: lack of “vision”1. Eagle Triumphant / Anti-Imperialism: containment of Russia and China2. Noblesse Oblige: humanitarian interventions in Somalia, Haiti3. Declinist: share effort in Bosnia, Kosovo4. Contingency: “ad hoc” response to Al Qaeda attacks on embassies, lack of staying-power in Somalia5. U.S. First: anti-internationalism, opposition to intervention except on behalf of key allies (Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel)6. World of Regions?Outline Post 9-11 Geopolitics: Unilateralism1. Containment of regional powers: traditional state-to-state geopolitics (Russia, China, India)2. Energy Security for U.S. / World• Chokepoints and Pipelines• Diversification of U.S. supplies•Iraq3. Prevent WMD proliferation4. War on Terror: aggressive pursuit of Al Qaeda - a globalist strategy to destroy a non-state actor• Network of bases in strategic locations• Pre-emptive strikes (Israeli model)• High level of global engagement5. Roll-back Islamic Fundamentalism•IraqPost 9-11 Ideology: PNAC• The ideology driving current U.S. geopolitics derives from the Project for the New American Century: 1997• Attacks on 9-11 created an opportunity for the PNAC• PNAC argues that “American foreign and defense policy is adrift” and calls for “a Reaganite policy of military strength and moral clarity… At present the United States faces no global rival. America's grand strategy should aim to preserve and extend this advantageous position as far into the future as possible.”3PNAC Goals• The establishment of Pax Americana• First step: the removal of Saddam Hussein and the establishment of an American protectorate in Iraq. The purpose of this is threefold:1. To acquire control of the oil fields to fund the entire enterprise2. To fire a warning shot across the bows of every leader in the Middle East3. To establish in Iraq a military staging area for the eventual invasion and overthrow of several Middle Eastern regimes, including some that are allies of the United States.Origin of PNAC• In 1991, Paul Wolfowitz objected to what he considered the premature ending of the Iraq War. In 1992, he wrote the Pentagon's Defense Planning Guide, which was leaked to The New York Times. In this document, he outlined plans for military intervention in Iraq as an action necessary to assure “access to vital raw material, primarily Persian Gulf oil” and to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and threats from terrorism.• “The primary goal of U.S. policy should be to prevent the rise of any nation that could challenge the United States.”PNAC Members• Vice President Dick Cheney, one of the PNAC founders, served as Secretary of Defense for Bush Sr. • I. Lewis Libby, Cheney's top national security assistant• Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, also a founding member, along with four of his chief aides including• Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, the ideological father of the group• Eliot Abrams, member of Bush's National Security Council, pardoned by Bush Sr. in the Iran/Contra scandal• John Bolton, Undersecretary for Arms Control and International Security in the Bush administration• Richard Perle, former Reagan administration official and present Chairman of the powerful Defense Policy Board • Bruce Jackson, Chairman of PNAC, former vice president of weapons manufacturer Lockheed-Martin4Defense Spending• For 2004: $380 billion (3.8% of GDP, 16.6% fed budget)– $I billion per day, $42 million per hour– More than the next 25 countries combinedFrance $47 billion 2.6% GDPJapan $40 1.0U.K. $32 2.3China $20 1.6Saudi Arabia $18 13.0Iran $10 3.1North Korea $5 31.3Iraq $1 N.A.Syria $1 5.9 Corporate Connections• There are twelve permanent U.S. bases in Kosovo today, all built and maintained by Brown & Root, a subsidiary of Halliburton, for a multi-billion dollar profit• During Cheney’s tenure, according to oil industry executives and United Nations records, Halliburton did a $73 million in business with Saddam Hussein's Iraq• Brown & Root won a $900 million government contract for the rebuilding of post-war Iraqi bridges, roads and other basic infrastructure• B&R is also in the running for the repair of oil wells; the oil fires were put out by Halliburton1. Containment of Regional Powers• Contain nuclear-capable states Russia, China, India, through both land and sea power1. Expand NATO, shift W. European bases east2. Build alliances in Caucasus and C. Asia3. Develop presence in S. Asia: India/Pak/Nepal4. Bind Malaysia and Philippines to U.S. economically5. Do not resolve Korean conflict: maintain bases6. Provide energy security from Persian Gulf52. U.S. Energy Security • From where does the U.S. get its Oil?1. Domestic production2. Imported oil3. Shifting geographies of supplyU.S. Oil Imports from the Middle East: 1977 vs. 1996 (millions of barrels per day)1.6023.172TOTAL00.010Bahrain00.535Iran00.074Iraq00.723Libya0.2360.048Kuwait00.067Qatar1.3631.380Saudi Arabia0.0030.335UAE19961977CountryU.S. Imports by Region: 20010102030405060W.HemispherePersian Gulf West Africa North Sea North Africa AsiaPercent of Imports6From where will the U.S. get its oil in the future?1. Declining domestic production2. Increasing competition in the world energy market (esp. China, India)3. Declining reserves outside Persian Gulf100.019.7100.016.3Total Consumption42.08.362.010.1USA17.73.515.02.4Others2.30.50.50.1Iraq2.50.52.10.3Britain3.00.62.70.4Nigeria7.81.54.20.7Saudi Arabia7.71.54.30.7Mexico7.31.44.90.8Venezuela9.81.95.00.8Canada%mbpd%mbpd2002200219861986Country of OriginIncreasing Competition in World Energy Market• India and China are growing energy consumers• Each have over 1 billion people• Over half the population in each country lives on less than $2 a day• “God forbid that India should ever take
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