Exercise 7 Synthesis Essay Read instructions ask TA s use this week recitations to verbalize ideas list of acceptable topics Environmental Attitudes and Behavior If our attitudes are shifting toward an ecological paradigm why are we still losing species and habitat and facing degradation of entire global systems like the oceans and climate Transformation Natural Resources and Sustainability How might we measure human transformation of earth in comparison to some baselines and thresholds that reflect sustainability Are we nearing some limits to the sustainability of human development Can we tell the difference between sustainable and unsustainable development The Environment as Natural Resource How do we judge the availability of stock and flow resources and what problems make those assessments less accurate How can a renewable flow resource be depleted and what social mechanisms can be used to achieve efficient depletion of stock resources and sustainable use of flow resources Natural Hazards Why are natural hazard losses increasing even as we work to make development more safe How might our attitudes towards nature affect adjustment choices and policies in response to natural hazards What public policies might reduce exposure and or vulnerability to natural hazards Global Warming Sticking Points How can we set targets for greenhouse gas and climate change reductions and what treaty mechanisms would help us meet those targets Should developing countries accept firm GHG emissions targets in a successor to the Kyoto Protocol Why or Why not See GEOG 2412 Further Reading links page As of last week the betting is that the UNFCCC s Conference of the parties COP 15th meeting in Copenhagen starting dec 7 will not achieve a new treaty to pick up where the Kyoto treaty leaves off Commentators like Will left throw all kinds of criticisms at UNFCCC even arguing that the science is bad and there s no problem with global warming But their better argument is that the race to reduce GHG emissions is fraught with problems and maybe unnecessary impacts We ll see how the discussion goes in Copenhagen Look ahead Exercise 7 Synthesis Essay starts next week Answer question provide diagnosis problem assessment prognosis Pay attention to your Writing Substance Clarity Grammar Citations at least two cited works Avoid plagiarism use at least 2 citations Cite class material Yes for readings no for lectures To set the target level we need a process for Copenhagen decision making Assess the science again More sophisticated approach to emission concentration targets Choose instruments for getting there Address inevitable impacts and cost of adaptation Address equity issues in mitigation and impacts To set the target level we need a process for Copenhagen decision making Assess the science again More sophisticated approach to emission concentration targets Choose instruments for getting there Address inevitable impacts and cost of adaptation Address equity issues in mitigation and impacts Let s run through a rough approach to setting targets like you did in Exercise 6 and maybe one way they ll be discussing provisions in a Post Kyoto treaty at Copenhagen next month The next 7 slides are repeat from last week s lecture Let s try this ourselves For policy argument let s go back to Smith et al s summary diagram and choose 2 5 degrees as the threshold which we define as dangerous or tolerable ala Yamin et al s article 1 6 Temperature change OC So if we choose 2 5 degrees as a target warming above which we define dangerous warming to be avoided we can get a sense of how fast we ll approach it and what we need to do about greenhouse gases 5 4 3 Scenarios A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 IS92a TAR method AII IS92 2 1 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 Years 2080 2100 Bars show the range in 2100 produced by several models We then plot 2 5 degrees on the greenhouse gas emission scenarios to see which scenario path of human development and associated future GHG emissions would keep us under the threshold the best fit to my mind if the A1T scenario Here s that scenario in terms of annual carbon dioxide emissions we ll need to keep them below a maximum of about 12 6 giga tons which allows us to increase them slightly over the next 10 years or so but then really start to reduce them Then we can think about targets in Copenhagen maybe we want to keep eventual peak warming below certain amount here as 50 percentile peak warming or maybe we have to face reality of what we can do to change energy resource systems when can we start reducing emissions not just growth of emissions right away 23015 later 2025 or even 2035 Eventually of course the nations gathered in Copenhagen have to set and allocated emission reductions We ll watch for this during the meeting week of Dec 8 and 10 classes They ll need to sort out reductions needed by different countries perhaps dealing with issues such as per capita emissions today and reductions already made since the Framework Convention on Climate Change FCCC came into effect Peak emissions 2015 2025 2035 Then we go to some look up table of impacts which right now are very fuzzy sets and see what higher peaks mean for resources impacts etc So the whole process is starting to look like other environmental management and regulatory approaches like for air pollution which used a human health impacts threshold and then set concentration limits starting with 1972 clean air act the ozone provisions of which places like Denver still violate today Two ideas countries with low per capita emissions might be allocated most of the allowable increase in the future to allow their development and countries already having reduced GHG emissions should be given some credit in terms of future obligatory reductions 2 But policy actions on GHG Global warming will be complicated Accept that there is a range of dangerous climate change and allow stakeholders to work out a consensus level of GHG emissions concentration Zero Tolerance allow no further warming sorry too late Most vulnerable should be protected e g island nations that could be obliterated by even modest sea level rise maybe 1 5 degrees Set some efficient level of acceptable change e g some magic balance of cost of preventing cost of impacts of change cost of adapting who knows where this point might be maybe 2 3 degrees Avoid only the most dire potential outcomes e g committing Greenland ice sheet to melting maybe 35 degrees max What is Dangerous or tolerable Geophysical