CU-Boulder GEOG 2412 - Population and the Environment

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1Population and the EnvironmentGEOG-2412Fernando RiosmenaDepartment of GeographyOur time on Earth in a cosmic scaleBig Bang January 1 Origin of life on Earth ~ September 25December 31st:First humans ~ 10:30 p.m.Invention of agriculture 11:59:20 p.m.Hammurabic legal codes in Babylon; Middle Kingdom in Egypt 11:59:52 p.m.Bronze metallurgy; Mycenaean culture; Trojan War; Olmec culture; invention of the compass 11:59:53 p.m.Iron metallurgy; First Assyrian Empire; Kingdom of Israel; founding of Carthage by Phoenicia 11:59:54 p.m.Asokan India; Ch'in Dynasty China; Periclean Athens; birth of Buddha 11:59:55 p.m.Euclidean geometry; Archimedean physics; Ptolemaic astronomy; Roman Empire; birth of Christ 11:59:56 p.m.Zero and decimals invented in Indian arithmetic; Rome falls; Moslem conquests 11:59:57 p.m.Mayan civilization; Sung Dynasty China; Byzantine empire; Mongol invasion; Crusades 11:59:58 p.m.Renaissance in Europe; voyages of discovery from Europe and from Ming Dynasty China; emergence of the experimental method in science11:59:59 p.m.Widespread development of science and technology; emergence of global culture; acquisition of the means of self-destruction of the human species; first steps in spacecraft planetary exploration and the search of extraterrestrial intelligenceNow: The first second of New Year's DaySource: Originally taken from Carl Sagan’s The Dragons of Eden http://admiralty.pacific.net.hk/~paulchui/cosmic.htmlSource: McFalls, J.A. 2007. “Population: A Lively Introduction”. Population Bulletin 62(1):1-31. Unprecedented growth throughout history (but “few” doublings)2The future of course may bring further challenges in terms of sustainabilitySource: Weeks, Fig 2.2.The Demographic Transition implies going from high to low mortality, fertility. In-between, sizable growth due to lag between mortality and fertility decline. Many places still “undergoing” it.Source: Fig. 3.2. in Weeks, 2005. Population.With (better) projections, another doubling, unlikely during this CenturySource: Lutz, W. W. Sanderson, and S. Scherbov. 1997 “Doubling of Population Unlikely” Letters to Nature. 387:803-805.3Asynchronous demographic change will imply shifts in the share of the World’s population by region.Source: McFalls, J.A. 2007. “Population: A Lively Introduction”. Population Bulletin 62(1):1-31. Impacts of population on the Environment Population as a cause of environmental “change” As opposed to environmental influence on population dynamics Obviously, we have deeply transformed our environment Though not the only ones doing so, our impact much deeper Interest in extent of past and future environmental changes Generally through the lens of “IPAT” (or IPCT) I=PxAxT P may be size, density, etc. T = Tr x Tw x S (environmental susceptibility)Different population regime, consumption patters, and environmental footprint across different technological regimes4Understanding impacts through the pressure-state-response modelPRESSUREPopulationConsumptionTechnologyResource useWaste outputSTATE OF ENVIRONMENTPollutionDegradationDepletionFEEDBACKScarcityHazardLoss of amenityFILTERSScienceMonitoringPolitical/legal systemsMarket/property systemsSOCIETAL RESPONSEPrice shiftChanges inBehaviorCultureTechnologyResource managementPolicy measuresRegulationTaxationSubsidyFor instance, (Urban) Heat Island Effecthttp://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GreenRoof/UIH effect creates sizable variation in temperature across space, particularly at night. What kind of prevention, mitigation strategies are out there?http://www.climatechangefacts.info/Today-Global-Climate-Change-Status-and-Trends.html5Views on population and the environment Malthusian/Neo-malthusian Paul Ehrlich’s Population Bomb Degradation, resource loss if business as usual in pop growth Plenty of “negative externalities” in population growth Cornucopian/Market-response Julian Simon Market mechanisms have/will help us adjust behavior Distributionist view, a third, ~middle view Marxist origins Less attention in many policy circlesThe original Malthusian reasoning was tied to the idea that food production (or other resources) could not grow at the same pace as the populationMalthusian, Cornucopian views may dominate… depending on the resource?Source: Harrison, P. and F. Pearce (2000). AAAS atlas of population & environment.Univ of California Press.6Grim scenarios re P x A x T and greenhouse gas emissions (but do not conflate P x A x T with P)Source: Harrison, P. and F. Pearce (2000). AAAS atlas of population & environment.Univ of California Press.Population vs. affluence, consumption: United StatesSource: Menzal, P. Material WorldPopulation vs. affluence, consumption: Thailand, MaliSource: Menzal, P. Material World7World Population in 2006The size of each territory shows the relative proportion of the world's population living there.Energy consumption in 2006Population trends and various estimates of carrying capacity (under a variety of assumptions), illustrating the impact of all P, A/C, & TSource: Cohen, J.E. 1997 “Population, Economics, Environment, and Culture: an Introduction to Human Carrying Capacity”. Journal of Applied Ecology 34:1325-1333.8Carrying capacity (with near-zero technological expertise) well below today’s population. Which illustrates the relevance of technological progress…Source: Cohen, J.E. 1997 “Population, Economics, Environment, and Culture: an Introduction to Human Carrying Capacity”. Journal of Applied Ecology 34:1325-1333.LOG10 body mass (kg)LOG10 population density (no


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