J201 Lecture Political opinion political polling policy tool or horserace odds demographics geographics psychographics 2004 election exit poll pollster com 2007 2008 What about Wisconsin let s check pollster com And as of March 2008 still in low 30s citizen support of state policy pollingreport com 2006 Zogby International poll of US troops stationed in Iraq 72 US should withdraw all troops from Iraq within a year 42 unclear about US role in Iraq 85 to retaliate for Saddam s role in the 9 11 attacks 23 to build a democratic model for the region http www zogby com Why political opinion polling Identify market segments for particular messages Determine whether messages are effective Estimate policy support as part of a news story Ascertain the will of the people for governance A good poll locates people who fairly represent the population we re interested in asks them fair comprehensible and useful questions calculates results fairly without reaching beyond the data is reported so people can understand where it does and does not apply Screwing up political polling sampling error eg non random coverage errors eg cell phones response rate errors eg answering machines measurement errors eg bad questions Do you believe the polls top of the head responses follow the money historical context margin of error small differences may be cancelled out by the margin of error margin of error only valid if poll methodology is valid even with the best poll margin of error invalid one in twenty times the first increases in sample size produce the biggest benefits Great moments in polling history 1936 Alf Landon defeats Franklin Roosevelt 1948 Thomas Dewey defeats Harry Truman 1996 Pat Buchanan defeats Bob Dole 2004 Kerry defeats Bush Let s analyze that Zogby poll on Iraq 2006 Zogby International poll of US troops stationed in Iraq 72 US should withdraw all troops from Iraq within a year 42 unclear about US role in Iraq 85 to retaliate for Saddam s role in the 9 11 attacks 23 to build a democratic model for the region http www zogby com analyzing that Zogby poll of US soldiers in Iraq conducted Jan Feb 2006 in various sites around Iraq 944 total respondents a random sample conducted face to face MOE 3 points 75 of the respondents were male 63 of the respondents were under age 30 15 How long should U S troops stay in Iraq 1 They should withdraw immediately 2 They should withdraw within the next six months 3 They should withdraw within six to twelve months 4 They should stay as long as they are needed 5 Not sure 72 89 of reserves 82 of National Guard 58 of Marines 16 According to recent polls about half of Americans favor a rapid withdrawal and half favor an open ended occupation of Iraq Which do you believe best describes the motives of those favoring rapid withdrawal 1 They are unpatriotic 7 They Whichare one the following best for describes your understanding of the U S mission in Iraq 2 notofaware of the need U S troops 3 They believe that continued occupation will not work Very 4 1 They areclear against use of the military in preemptive war and nation building 2 Somewhat clear 5 Other 3 Somewhat 6 Not sure unclear 4 Very unclear 5 No understanding The insurgency has at least tripled the number of attacks on US troops over the past two 6 Not sure years but despite this there have been political and economic advances Based on your experiences Iraq please rate statements 17 through usingfor thethe following scale using Please rateinthe statements in questions 8 through 14 as 24 reasons Iraq invasion 42 the following scale 1 Definitely false 2 1 Mostly Not a false reason 3 2 Partly partly false Minortrue reason 4 3 Mostly Majortrue reason 2 Somewhat clear Very clearunclear 3 1 Somewhat 1 2 3 4 5 Not sure 2 Somewhat clear 4 Very unclear Somewhat unclear 5 3 No understanding sure 9 6 To remove Saddam Hussein from power 4 Not Very unclear 5 No understanding Please rate through 14 as reasons for the Iraq invasion using sure 16 Not 2the statements 3 4in questions 5 Not8 sure the following scale Please rate the astatements questions asArab reasons for the Iraq invasion using 10 To establish democracyinthat can be 8a through model for14the world 1 Not ascale reason the following 2 2Minor reason 1 3 4 5 Not sure 31 Major Not a reason reason 42 Main reason Minor 11 To stop Saddamreason from protecting al Qaeda in Iraq 53 Not sure Major reason 4 2Main reason 3 4 5 Not sure 8 1To remove weapons 5 Not sure of mass destruction WMD from Iraq 12 1 To retaliate for3 Saddam s role 9 11 attacks 2 weapons 5 in Notthe sure 8 To remove of4 mass destruction WMD from Iraq 2 Saddam 3 Hussein 4 from5 power Not sure 9 1To remove 1 2 3 4 5 Not sure 2 Iraqi 3 oil supplies 4 5 Not sure 13 1 To secure 9 To remove Saddam Hussein from power 85 10 1 To establish a democracy be a sure model for the Arab world 2 3 4 that can 5 Not 1 2 3 4 5 Not sure 1 2 3 4 base5 for Not sure 14 U S thethe Middle East 10 To Toprovide establisha along term democracy that can be atroops modelinfor Arab world 11 1 To stop2Saddam3from protecting Qaeda 44 5 alNot Not surein Iraq 1 2 3 5 sure 1 2 3 4 5 Not sure 11 To stop Saddam from protecting al Qaeda in Iraq 12 To retaliate for Saddam s role in the 9 11 attacks 1 2 3 4 5 Not sure 1 2 3 4 5 Not sure 12 To retaliate for Saddam s role in the 9 11 attacks 13 To secure Iraqi oil supplies 1 2 3 4 5 Not sure 1 2 3 4 5 Not sure 13 To secure Iraqi oil supplies 14 To provide a long term base for U S troops in the Middle East 1 2 3 4 5 Not sure 1 2 3 4 5 Not sure 14 To provide a long term base for U S troops in the Middle East 23 1 2 3 4 5 Not sure
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