Natural Hazards and DisastersWhat is a Natural Disaster??Natural Processes or Natural Disasters?Some of the Natural Disasters Studied in this CoursePublic Awareness and Avoiding Natural DisastersLiving in the “Idiot Zone”Population GrowthTop 10 Deadliest Natural Disasters (1970-2001)Which two natural processes cause the most deaths?From 1970-2001...What is the Correlation between Population Density and Natural Disaster Deaths?Fatalities from Natural Disasters Worldwide from 1947 - 1980Disasters cost money and lives wherever they occur, but developed countries almost always lose more money while underdeveloped countries lose more lives.U.S. Economic and Insured Losses from Natural Disasters 1950-2000Role of the U.S. GovernmentPredicting Catastrophe Disaster “Prediction”: The more predictable” the event, the fewer the lives lost.Global Distribution of Active EarthquakesGlobal Distribution of Active VolcanoesGlobal Hurricane DistributionPredicting CatastropheSlide 21Slide 22Slide 23Predicting CatastropheAnticipatory Hazard ManagementSlide 26Anticipatory Hazard Management:Slide 28Anticipatory Hazard ManagementSlide 30Slide 31Hazard ManagementSlide 33Natural Hazards and DisastersPremise of the course is to provide a basic understanding of how earth processes give rise to disasters and how people interact with these hazardous processes.12What is a Natural Disaster??A natural hazard is a natural process that poses a threat to property and human life.Natural disasters occur when the earth’s natural processes concentrate energy and then release it, causing property damage and/or loss of life.Refer to page 33Natural Processes or Natural Disasters?•The earth is a dynamic planet with complex internal and external flows of energy that produce natural processes that are supposed to happen and have been for billions of years.•Natural processes become natural disasters (or catastrophes) when they adversely affect humans and their property. Refer to page 34Some of the Natural Disasters Studied in this Course•Earthquakes•Tsunami•Volcanoes•Landslides•Tornadoes•Hurricanes•Floods5Public Awareness and Avoiding Natural Disasters•Most people do not recognize the signs of imminent catastrophes because these events are infrequent.•There are numerous small events, fewer larger events, and only rarely a giant event.–Forget?–Lack of knowledge.–Irrational. “It won’t happen here” or “it won’t happen to me.”Refer to page 9-106Living in the “Idiot Zone”Cultural/Economic Reasons•Productive agricultural soil.•Inexpensive land.•Natural transportation corridors.Frivolous Reasons•Scenic Environments.Population Growth.Refer to page 9-107Population Growth•As the growth of the world’s population accelerates, more and more people find themselves living in close proximity to Earth’s most hazardous places.•Human population has grown exponentially doubling about every 50 to 100 years. Since the 1950’s the world population has doubled to ~6 billion and is expected to reach 10 to 15 billion by 2050.Refer to page 3-4Top 10 Deadliest Natural Disasters (1970-2001)•400,000 14 Nov 1970 Hurricane Bangladesh•250,000 28 Jul 1976 Earthquake China•140,000 30 Apr 1991 Hurricane Bangladesh•60,000 31 May 1970Landslide Peru•50,000 15 Dec 1999 Flooding Venezuela•50,000 21 Jun 1990 Earthquake Iran•25,000 7 Dec 1988 Earthquake Armenia•25,000 16 Sep 1978 Earthquake Iran•23,000 13 Nov 1985 Mudflow Columbia•22,000 4 Feb 1976 Earthquake Guatemala8Which two natural processes cause the most deaths?9LandslidesTornadoesVolcanoesFloodsHurricanesEarthquakesTsunami10From 1970-2001...•21 out of 40 of the Earth’s worst disasters were earthquakes.•9 out of 40 were hurricanes.•9 hurricanes killed 599,544 people.•21 earthquakes killed 571,146 people.11What is the Correlation between Population Density and Natural Disaster Deaths?Where humans are concentrated, high energy events kill more people. In past 32 years, 86% of natural disaster deaths have occurred in Asia.Regional population patterns:Population density.Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network.12Fatalities from Natural Disasters Worldwide from 1947 - 198013Disasters cost money and lives wherever they occur, but developed countries almost always lose more money while underdeveloped countries lose more lives.Not Just High Population Density–Poor warning and preparedness systems–Poor evacuation plans–Poorly constructed buildings or inappropriately constructed buildings.–Poor disaster relief plansRefer to page 314U.S. Economic and Insured Losses from Natural Disasters 1950-2000Refer to page 3-415Role of the U.S. GovernmentConducts and sponsors research into the nature and behavior of natural disasters.Prediction.•USGS•National Weather ServiceMitigation.•Army Corps of EngineersResponse.•FEMARefer to page 8-916Predicting CatastropheDisaster “Prediction”: The more predictable” the event, the fewer the lives lost. Location: Certain events are known to occur in certain areas.Refer to page 3-5Global Distribution of Active Earthquakes17Predicting Catastrophe Location:Global Distribution of Active Volcanoes18Predicting Catastrophe Location:Global Hurricane Distribution19Predicting Catastrophe Location:20Predicting CatastropheForecasting/Warning:Based on linear projections of past experiences, forecasts can be made which indicate that a future hazardous event will occur in a certain area within a given span of time (often decades) with an approximate percentage probability.Refer to page 3-5Predicting CatastropheRecurrence Interval:Statistical prediction based past data over a long period of time.Defined as the expected time interval between a hazard of a given magnitude. It is a statistical probability that a natural event of a particular size will happen within a certain period of time.Attempts to predict when a natural disaster of a given magnitude most likely will occur.Refer to page 3-522•Estimations of recurrence intervals are made by plotting a graph of each event size versus the time interval between sequential individual events. •Plotting on a logarithmic scale leads to a straight line graph that can be extrapolated to values larger than those in the historic record.Refer to page 3-5Predicting CatastropheRecurrence Interval:23•Magnitude: the amount of energy released or how much power.•Frequency: the recurrence interval or how often events
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